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> With all due respect to LeCun, not him nor anyone else in the field predicted the new emergent capabilities brought within the last few years. Turing predict

by jart 3y ago

> With all due respect to LeCun, not him nor anyone else in the field predicted the new emergent capabilities brought within the last few years. Turing predicted it would happen around the year 2000 and take ~1gb of ram. > I believe that in about fifty years’ time it will be possible to programme computers, with a storage capacity of about 10^9, to make them play the imitation game so well that an average interrogator will not have more than 70 per cent, chance of making the right identification after five minutes of questioning. https://academic.oup.com/mind/article/LIX/236/433/986238 https://academic.oup.com/mind/article/LIX/236/433/986238 I think Turing was right. If I run TinyLlama 1.1B on my computer I can have a conversation where it pretends to be a person. It's small and fast enough that it'd probably run fine on a high end workstation from 2000. If the tech was possible back then, then it probably existed. Keep in mind Turing was the sort of person whose work at Bletchley Park took 30 years to declassify.

simne 3y ago
> Turing predicted it would happen around the year 2000 and take ~1gb of ram Turing was right, but he believed in human intelligence, so thinking linear. Unfortunately, neural networks appear harder then sought, because Forward-Forward learning with which working human brain, is now considered too computationally hard to be used practically. Reverse-Propagation neural networks are much easier computationally to achieve, but are magnitudes less dense than FF, that's why we have so much delay - just need thousand times more performance, this is about 30 additional years. PS I tried Llama 30b on my computer (honesty, tried all Lllama models could fit in 64G RAM, from 13B and more). It is not sprinter fast, but I'm very impressed, on how deep it could think. I must admit, I don't want to talk to many humans anymore, as It looks smarter.

by jart 3y ago

simne 3y ago

> Turing predicted it would happen around the year 2000 and take ~1gb of ram Turing was right, but he believed in human intelligence, so thinking linear. Unfortunately, neural networks appear harder then sought, because Forward-Forward learning with which working human brain, is now considered too computationally hard to be used practically. Reverse-Propagation neural networks are much easier computationally to achieve, but are magnitudes less dense than FF, that's why we have so much delay - just need thousand times more performance, this is about 30 additional years. PS I tried Llama 30b on my computer (honesty, tried all Lllama models could fit in 64G RAM, from 13B and more). It is not sprinter fast, but I'm very impressed, on how deep it could think. I must admit, I don't want to talk to many humans anymore, as It looks smarter.