4 ms·

Launch detection was, I believe, not all that robust in the early days, and making sure that the enemy couldn't precisely target all of your silos, and making s

Launch detection was, I believe, not all that robust in the early days, and making sure that the enemy couldn't precisely target all of your silos, and making sure they knew they couldn't, was presumably useful for deterrence.

toast0 3y ago
Looks like an ICBM flight is about 30 minutes. Even if you have good launch detection, that's not a lot of time to communicate, decide, and launch the counter strike. If missiles aren't on standby, it takes time to prepare them. There's a good chance some counter launches get delayed... Seems like a lucky first strike could significantly reduce the counter strike. But everyone loses anyway.
- wkat4242 3y ago
  No but that's what defcon was for. Things like a mass preemptive strike don't come out of the blue but out of an ongoing conflict. The idea was that it would be more or less expected. And ICBMs these days are all solid fueled, I don't think they need much preparatory time.
- techdragon 3y ago
  Depressed trajectory submarine launched ballistic missiles can drop that below ten minutes… depending on what they are aiming at and where they fire from .. it’s a technique that uses the unused propulsion power to hit closer targets faster than a full ballistic launch on the most efficient trajectory would use. And it’s why the SSBN is such a deadly second strike platform. If you know the nukes flying at you, you send the global alert, the SSBNs stationed secretly close to enemy coastlines surface to get emergency orders, and then let their nukes fly potentially before the first strike wave has had time to hit their targets… I’ve even seen some war game scenarios where the second strike SSBN based nukes can hit the enemy before the first strike reaches the original targets (obviously this is theoretical war game scenario stuff so it must be taken with several grains of salt, but it’s a surprising realisation that submarines can in the best case scenarios, put nukes on your enemies faster than their first wave of nukes will get to you… )

toast0 3y ago

Looks like an ICBM flight is about 30 minutes. Even if you have good launch detection, that's not a lot of time to communicate, decide, and launch the counter strike. If missiles aren't on standby, it takes time to prepare them. There's a good chance some counter launches get delayed... Seems like a lucky first strike could significantly reduce the counter strike. But everyone loses anyway.

wkat4242 3y ago
No but that's what defcon was for. Things like a mass preemptive strike don't come out of the blue but out of an ongoing conflict. The idea was that it would be more or less expected. And ICBMs these days are all solid fueled, I don't think they need much preparatory time.
techdragon 3y ago
Depressed trajectory submarine launched ballistic missiles can drop that below ten minutes… depending on what they are aiming at and where they fire from .. it’s a technique that uses the unused propulsion power to hit closer targets faster than a full ballistic launch on the most efficient trajectory would use. And it’s why the SSBN is such a deadly second strike platform. If you know the nukes flying at you, you send the global alert, the SSBNs stationed secretly close to enemy coastlines surface to get emergency orders, and then let their nukes fly potentially before the first strike wave has had time to hit their targets… I’ve even seen some war game scenarios where the second strike SSBN based nukes can hit the enemy before the first strike reaches the original targets (obviously this is theoretical war game scenario stuff so it must be taken with several grains of salt, but it’s a surprising realisation that submarines can in the best case scenarios, put nukes on your enemies faster than their first wave of nukes will get to you… )