Scientific progress almost always presents as series of iterations, not punctuated breakthroughs. Moreover, many significant advances appear nearly simultaneous

Scientific progress almost always presents as series of iterations, not punctuated breakthroughs. Moreover, many significant advances appear nearly simultaneously. This tends to suggest a measured progress, though obviously still largely unpredictable at any scale. I don’t see why AGI would follow a different course, one where we are “just some breakthrough away”. Especially not given the current state of the field. Personally I’d wager neuromorphic computing is the prime candidate to yield AGI.