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How, exactly, do you see me as arguing that anything but numeric foolishness is going on here? Investors, in bubbles, frequently find ways to justify the number
by incongruity 15y ago
How, exactly, do you see me as arguing that anything but numeric foolishness is going on here? Investors, in bubbles, frequently find ways to justify the numbers – often with talk of how the old rules don't apply, etc., etc.
In this specific post's case, however, the author fails to see the lack of quality in the numbers which he (barely) uses.
Trusting bad numbers without really digging into them is little different than "ignoring the numbers", as you put it. They're two sides of the same coin – sloppiness because of excitement or other failed thinking.
As for your last argument – I'm not sure what to make of it. On the one hand, just a few lines above you argue that the numbers are usually "right in front" of investors and that bubbles are caused by ignoring them... but then you argue exactly counter to that and say that seeing bubbles isn't easy and that data can't tell you when there's a bubble.
I strongly disagree with that last point – the housing bubble was definitely spotted using data before it burst, as was the last tech bubble. It's just that few wanted to believe that the old fundamentals still applied. But thus far, they always seem to.