Another major geophysical/geochemical system for which we have poor models is the subsurface ocean. Our measurements are simply too sparse to build a realistic

Another major geophysical/geochemical system for which we have poor models is the subsurface ocean. Our measurements are simply too sparse to build a realistic model of the dynamics even though we know they have a major impact on climate. For a long time there was an assumption that oceanic subsurface dynamics were relatively static to a first approximation for climate modeling purposes. But localized measurements in recent decades have provided evidence that it is far more dynamic than models allowed for. Despite knowing this, we still don’t have much data to build models with due to lack of oceanic sensing platforms capable of collecting detailed data across 70% of the planet. It will likely be at least a couple decades before we begin to get a handle on these dynamics. I think people that have not worked in climate modeling tend to overestimate the fidelity of the climate models. The only things we can predict reliably are extremely coarse, like “it will get warmer on average” and “weather variance will increase”. The short-period systemic effects at any particular locale are far beyond what the models can currently predict with any reliability.