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A bunch of metrics show the economy is doing very well, but lots of people believe nothing except tiktoks and doomposts now.

arcticbull 3y ago
I do think the economy is doing fairly well, but the question is more one of sustainability in my opinion. We're seeing dwindling personal savings levels [1] and the housing market is the least affordable it's been probably on record. The argument I've seen is that people are spending down their savings, which is of course translating into healthy economic data - but once those savings are gone, things may not look so good. Personally, I'm not sure, but it doesn't seem cut and dried. [edit] Note that inflation numbers are improving but still well above target and in past instances, this last bit has been hard to shake. Higher for longer and no real new supply of housing means that's not going to change any time soon. [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVERT https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVERT
- ajross 3y ago
  Isn't this exactly the doomslinging the upthread commenter was complaining about? You conceded that in aggregate the economy is "doing fairly well", and then list a bunch of nitpicky reasons for you to believe the opposite. I mean, a mild drop in personal savings rate since the pandemic[1] and inflation that is higher than the last decade but just barely above its long term average don't really seem that concerning to me. Economies are cyclic and there will always be doom in the future. But there's no good justfication for predicting any particular doom. You're reaching, basically. [1] Conveniently ignoring the huge boom during the pandemic due to assistance programs.
  - ThisIsMyAltAcct 3y ago
    I don’t think GP’s post is particularly doomery. I’m talking about people who think the statistics are all fake or wrong, but who believe sensational social media posts about hyperinflation and recession
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
- majormajor 3y ago
  The personal savings rate graph you link is basically in the same spot as it was in 2004, so I don't think it's fair to call "dwindling" there a recent trend. The giant spike in 2020 is the outlier on that chart and there continue to be a lot of reverberations of 2020, but a story of "people saved a lot of money during COVID and the combination of that + logistics disruptions led to price spikes in various areas" is fairly straightforward and doesn't have to suggest unsustainability.

arcticbull 3y ago

I do think the economy is doing fairly well, but the question is more one of sustainability in my opinion. We're seeing dwindling personal savings levels [1] and the housing market is the least affordable it's been probably on record. The argument I've seen is that people are spending down their savings, which is of course translating into healthy economic data - but once those savings are gone, things may not look so good. Personally, I'm not sure, but it doesn't seem cut and dried. [edit] Note that inflation numbers are improving but still well above target and in past instances, this last bit has been hard to shake. Higher for longer and no real new supply of housing means that's not going to change any time soon. [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVERT https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVERT

ajross 3y ago
Isn't this exactly the doomslinging the upthread commenter was complaining about? You conceded that in aggregate the economy is "doing fairly well", and then list a bunch of nitpicky reasons for you to believe the opposite. I mean, a mild drop in personal savings rate since the pandemic[1] and inflation that is higher than the last decade but just barely above its long term average don't really seem that concerning to me. Economies are cyclic and there will always be doom in the future. But there's no good justfication for predicting any particular doom. You're reaching, basically. [1] Conveniently ignoring the huge boom during the pandemic due to assistance programs.
- ThisIsMyAltAcct 3y ago
  I don’t think GP’s post is particularly doomery. I’m talking about people who think the statistics are all fake or wrong, but who believe sensational social media posts about hyperinflation and recession
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
majormajor 3y ago
The personal savings rate graph you link is basically in the same spot as it was in 2004, so I don't think it's fair to call "dwindling" there a recent trend. The giant spike in 2020 is the outlier on that chart and there continue to be a lot of reverberations of 2020, but a story of "people saved a lot of money during COVID and the combination of that + logistics disruptions led to price spikes in various areas" is fairly straightforward and doesn't have to suggest unsustainability.