I think the right unit of analysis is culture not country. Every country has multiple cultures within it, and some of these cultures are larger than others. Bo

I think the right unit of analysis is culture not country. Every country has multiple cultures within it, and some of these cultures are larger than others. Both the US and Israel have high fecundity countercultural religious minorities, such as ultra-Orthodox/Haredi/Hasidic Judaism. The difference is, that minority in the US is such a small percentage of the population, that even though they are growing exponentially, they are still a rounding error in the demographics of the country as a whole (it may be a very different story by the time the 22nd century comes around, but we won't live to see that); whereas, in Israel, they are over 13% of the population, and will likely be 16% by the end of this decade [0] – so their impact on national demographics is much more substantial. [0] https://en.idi.org.il/media/20567/annual-statistical-report-on-ultra-orthodox-haredi-society-in-israel-2022-executive-summary.pdf https://en.idi.org.il/media/20567/annual-statistical-report-...