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There is important lesson to learn from here. Everybody who claims that there is not enough some mineral for something must consider the following. First in ev

by genman 3y ago

There is important lesson to learn from here. Everybody who claims that there is not enough some mineral for something must consider the following. First in every moment in time there are certain number of mineral resources - these are known deposits that are not all necessarily accessible economically, but some of them are - these are reserves. If the demand for something increases then also the price will increase, making more of the resources available as usable reserves at the new price point. At the same time it increases the incentives to find even more new resources. More over, if there is certain amount of mineral already in circulation then it may suddenly become economically viable to recycle it, limiting the demand for new resources. What is important to observe instead is if the increase in production can follow the increase in demand and if the resources grow at such speed that the growth can continue. https://www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com/p/lithium-electric-vehicles https://www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com/p/lithium-electric-v...

gregwebs 3y ago
That's a good article. The issue is not finding another tonne of lithium, the issue is cranking up production. The article says 4-5 years minimum to build a mine, but sometimes it takes 10 years. So there is a supply issue- it is the supply produced by mines. We still could be in for more lithium prices shocks in the future as happened during the pandemic because the mining production can't elastically expand or contract (financing can make shutting down a non-option) as fast as demand. Building out a recycling program is something should be able to be done more quickly than building out a mine but there may still be issues if we don't design for recycling from the beginning. > The world doesn’t currently have the production capacity in mining operations to scale to this level. And, the problem is that the minimum time to build lithium mines is four to five years. They can be even longer – especially the lithium extracted from brine because it takes a long time to pump the saltwater out, before waiting for it to evaporate. > Countries have already invested in some increases in capacity, but we will need much more if we’re to keep up with demand. > This is a short-term challenge, and one that is typical of a fast-moving market. We’re playing catch-up. But, it’s a problem that we can’t afford: it could slow the decline in battery prices, and limit the number of EVs that companies can produce. > If we want to move the EV transition forward, we need to mine more lithium. And we need to do it quickly.

by genman 3y ago

gregwebs 3y ago

That's a good article. The issue is not finding another tonne of lithium, the issue is cranking up production. The article says 4-5 years minimum to build a mine, but sometimes it takes 10 years. So there is a supply issue- it is the supply produced by mines. We still could be in for more lithium prices shocks in the future as happened during the pandemic because the mining production can't elastically expand or contract (financing can make shutting down a non-option) as fast as demand. Building out a recycling program is something should be able to be done more quickly than building out a mine but there may still be issues if we don't design for recycling from the beginning. > The world doesn’t currently have the production capacity in mining operations to scale to this level. And, the problem is that the minimum time to build lithium mines is four to five years. They can be even longer – especially the lithium extracted from brine because it takes a long time to pump the saltwater out, before waiting for it to evaporate. > Countries have already invested in some increases in capacity, but we will need much more if we’re to keep up with demand. > This is a short-term challenge, and one that is typical of a fast-moving market. We’re playing catch-up. But, it’s a problem that we can’t afford: it could slow the decline in battery prices, and limit the number of EVs that companies can produce. > If we want to move the EV transition forward, we need to mine more lithium. And we need to do it quickly.