4 ms·

Americans Are Suddenly Feeling Way Better About the Economy

14 points by MilnerRoute 3y ago

MilnerRoute 3y ago
- "Consumer sentiment leapt 13% in the first half of January from December...on the heels of a sharp rise in December, causing the index to surge a combined 29% from November, the biggest two-month increase since 1991. - "The pickup in sentiment was broad-based, spanning consumers of different age, income, education and geography." - "Other gauges also show that Americans are at last emerging from their funk. The share of consumers in December who expected to be financially better off a year later reached the highest level since June 2021, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey." - "A separate consumer confidence measure last month saw its biggest one-month gain since March 2021, according to the Conference Board."
- uoaei 3y ago
  How is "sentiment" and "confidence" measured?
  - JojoFatsani 3y ago
    https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/consumer-sentiment.asp https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/consumer-sentiment.asp
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
deleted 3y ago
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- deleted 3y ago
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cpr 3y ago
Big wake-up coming in 2024...
- deepfriedchokes 3y ago
  Why?
highwayman47 3y ago
[flagged]
jimbob45 3y ago
Each month, the university conducts a minimum of 500 phone interviews across the continental U.S. Phone interviews are laughably inaccurate in the present day and a count of 500 is totally inadequate to capture what the entire US thinks about the economy. The left keeps trying to tell people that the economy is fine and that everyone is actually very happy about sky-high rents, unending layoffs, and astronomical grocery prices as if we can't see what's going on with our own bank accounts. This strategy of "don't believe your own eyes or ears" is straight out of 1984. Even worse, they use phone area codes to correspond respondents to area[0]. This survey is stupid. [0]https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/fetchdoc.php?docid=57449 https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/fetchdoc.php?docid=57449
- bryanlarsen 3y ago
  The issues are mostly systemic, not random. The numbers from one survey aren't particularly meaningful, differences between surveys are meaningful.
- glimshe 3y ago
  Don't forget medicine shortages
- belltaco 3y ago
  > unending layoffs Sounds like a frog in the well mentality, big tech is a very small part of the economy, even if you add companies like CitiGroup it's still tiny compared to everythign else where hiring is still strong. A good chunk of the laid off folks have savings from high salaries so they will keep on spending like normal so even those don't affect the larger economy too much.
  - bryanlarsen 3y ago
    Yah, I still see help wanted signs in every restaurant window. OTOH, we're hiring and we're getting some fabulous resumes. win-win from my perspective, but if I was the one applying rather than interviewing, I know I'd have a different perspective.
- mrala 3y ago
klipklop 3y ago
This reads like pre-election propaganda. Looking at sky high cost increases and a pretty poor job market (despite what the job reports try to tell you), I don't see how there could be such a huge leap in confidence. It's hilarious that they even say it's the best in decades... Give me a break.

14 points by MilnerRoute 3y ago

- "Consumer sentiment leapt 13% in the first half of January from December...on the heels of a sharp rise in December, causing the index to surge a combined 29% from November, the biggest two-month increase since 1991. - "The pickup in sentiment was broad-based, spanning consumers of different age, income, education and geography." - "Other gauges also show that Americans are at last emerging from their funk. The share of consumers in December who expected to be financially better off a year later reached the highest level since June 2021, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey." - "A separate consumer confidence measure last month saw its biggest one-month gain since March 2021, according to the Conference Board."

uoaei 3y ago
How is "sentiment" and "confidence" measured?
- JojoFatsani 3y ago
  https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/consumer-sentiment.asp https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/consumer-sentiment.asp
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]

cpr 3y ago

Big wake-up coming in 2024...

deepfriedchokes 3y ago
Why?

highwayman47 3y ago

[flagged]

jimbob45 3y ago

Each month, the university conducts a minimum of 500 phone interviews across the continental U.S. Phone interviews are laughably inaccurate in the present day and a count of 500 is totally inadequate to capture what the entire US thinks about the economy. The left keeps trying to tell people that the economy is fine and that everyone is actually very happy about sky-high rents, unending layoffs, and astronomical grocery prices as if we can't see what's going on with our own bank accounts. This strategy of "don't believe your own eyes or ears" is straight out of 1984. Even worse, they use phone area codes to correspond respondents to area[0]. This survey is stupid. [0]https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/fetchdoc.php?docid=57449 https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/fetchdoc.php?docid=57449

bryanlarsen 3y ago
The issues are mostly systemic, not random. The numbers from one survey aren't particularly meaningful, differences between surveys are meaningful.
glimshe 3y ago
Don't forget medicine shortages
belltaco 3y ago
> unending layoffs Sounds like a frog in the well mentality, big tech is a very small part of the economy, even if you add companies like CitiGroup it's still tiny compared to everythign else where hiring is still strong. A good chunk of the laid off folks have savings from high salaries so they will keep on spending like normal so even those don't affect the larger economy too much.
- bryanlarsen 3y ago
  Yah, I still see help wanted signs in every restaurant window. OTOH, we're hiring and we're getting some fabulous resumes. win-win from my perspective, but if I was the one applying rather than interviewing, I know I'd have a different perspective.
mrala 3y ago

klipklop 3y ago

This reads like pre-election propaganda. Looking at sky high cost increases and a pretty poor job market (despite what the job reports try to tell you), I don't see how there could be such a huge leap in confidence. It's hilarious that they even say it's the best in decades... Give me a break.