4 ms·

I'm pretty sure the numbers on web3dsurvey are skewed. AFAICT only sizes about webgl and webgpu development are surveyed. To get real numbers you need their sur

by nox101 3y ago

I'm pretty sure the numbers on web3dsurvey are skewed. AFAICT only sizes about webgl and webgpu development are surveyed. To get real numbers you need their survey script to run on popular non-techie sites right?

bhouston 3y ago
It does favor users who have likely have better than average graphics devices, but it still is likely relatively right - especially as the numbers get high. It is based on ~250,000 data samples in the last week.
- nox101 3y ago
  Can you explain how you would know the data is right if you don't have actual data from a site popular with non-techies? Like I go to a tech meetup it will generally be 95% male and mostly white and asian. If I surveyed anything there it would have very little relation to the real population. You list these sites threekit.com webgpufundamentals.org james.darpinian.com realism-effects-obeqz.vercel.app gobattle.io. ict.moe.gov.om modelviewer.dev realism-effects-git-v2-obeqz.vercel.app dev.phaser.io redblobgames.com threejs.org axiomatic-inc.com weatherlayers.com alpha.gobattle.io. gobattle.io spookyball.com mrdoob.com streets.gl realism-effects.vercel.app phaser.io alpha.gobattle.io molstar.org demo.weatherlayers.com old.phaser.io webglfundamentals.org toji.dev jeeliz.com clicktorelease.com Pretty much all of them are not sites any non-graphics person would visit. So how can it possibly be even close the correct? It doesn't matter that there 250k samples per week if those are nearly all programmers interested in 3D rather than the average non-techie
  - bhouston 3y ago
    > Can you explain how you would know the data is right if you don't have actual data from a site popular with non-techies? I didn't say it was absolutely right. Re-read my comment above. > So how can it possibly be even close the correct? I suggested in my previous comment that when the numbers are close to extremes they are more accurate. Basically as the survey approaches either 0% or 100% (look at iOS support for WebGPU above), it is indicative that the stddev of the distribution is small and thus any sampling bias is likely to not really have much of an effect. The more problematic numbers are those that are near the middle, like 50%, as the stddev is likely much higher and thus sampling bias can introduce more skew. But generally this survey started out last year when I made the website as <1% for WebGPU support and it has climbed above 50%. That is real movement and is indicative as a whole that WebGPU support is climbing. For the most part, you want to have WebGPU support to be >> 80% on this type of survey if you want to introduce a website that uses it exclusively without some type of fallback available.
    - nox101 3y ago
      I guess that's not the question I need answered as much as something more like "If I used feature X or require limit Y, what percent of the world market will be excluding". Given the list of sites, I don't think the data will show me the long tall of low powered older phones that are used by the majority of people because the people visiting sites like those on the list are more than likely to be tech people who have newer tech. PS, I'm not dissing the site or your effort. It's awesome that you put it together. Rather, I'm saying the numbers are not reliable. You can't say "50% of people can use feature x". You can only say "50% of people that visit sites like those listed can use feature x". I suspect that 50% is way way off. It's more like only 10% of the general population can use feature x" Here's hoping you can get one or more mainstream sites to add your survey script.

by nox101 3y ago

bhouston 3y ago

It does favor users who have likely have better than average graphics devices, but it still is likely relatively right - especially as the numbers get high. It is based on ~250,000 data samples in the last week.

nox101 3y ago
Can you explain how you would know the data is right if you don't have actual data from a site popular with non-techies? Like I go to a tech meetup it will generally be 95% male and mostly white and asian. If I surveyed anything there it would have very little relation to the real population. You list these sites threekit.com webgpufundamentals.org james.darpinian.com realism-effects-obeqz.vercel.app gobattle.io. ict.moe.gov.om modelviewer.dev realism-effects-git-v2-obeqz.vercel.app dev.phaser.io redblobgames.com threejs.org axiomatic-inc.com weatherlayers.com alpha.gobattle.io. gobattle.io spookyball.com mrdoob.com streets.gl realism-effects.vercel.app phaser.io alpha.gobattle.io molstar.org demo.weatherlayers.com old.phaser.io webglfundamentals.org toji.dev jeeliz.com clicktorelease.com Pretty much all of them are not sites any non-graphics person would visit. So how can it possibly be even close the correct? It doesn't matter that there 250k samples per week if those are nearly all programmers interested in 3D rather than the average non-techie
- bhouston 3y ago
  > Can you explain how you would know the data is right if you don't have actual data from a site popular with non-techies? I didn't say it was absolutely right. Re-read my comment above. > So how can it possibly be even close the correct? I suggested in my previous comment that when the numbers are close to extremes they are more accurate. Basically as the survey approaches either 0% or 100% (look at iOS support for WebGPU above), it is indicative that the stddev of the distribution is small and thus any sampling bias is likely to not really have much of an effect. The more problematic numbers are those that are near the middle, like 50%, as the stddev is likely much higher and thus sampling bias can introduce more skew. But generally this survey started out last year when I made the website as <1% for WebGPU support and it has climbed above 50%. That is real movement and is indicative as a whole that WebGPU support is climbing. For the most part, you want to have WebGPU support to be >> 80% on this type of survey if you want to introduce a website that uses it exclusively without some type of fallback available.
  - nox101 3y ago
    I guess that's not the question I need answered as much as something more like "If I used feature X or require limit Y, what percent of the world market will be excluding". Given the list of sites, I don't think the data will show me the long tall of low powered older phones that are used by the majority of people because the people visiting sites like those on the list are more than likely to be tech people who have newer tech. PS, I'm not dissing the site or your effort. It's awesome that you put it together. Rather, I'm saying the numbers are not reliable. You can't say "50% of people can use feature x". You can only say "50% of people that visit sites like those listed can use feature x". I suspect that 50% is way way off. It's more like only 10% of the general population can use feature x" Here's hoping you can get one or more mainstream sites to add your survey script.