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>> You’d have to be mad to buy any of these new. A realistically priced lease would be the way to go if you want new > EVs in the ~5 year old bracket, they may

>> You’d have to be mad to buy any of these new. A realistically priced lease would be the way to go if you want new > EVs in the ~5 year old bracket, they may be slightly better, but you still have to consider that in another 5 years it's basically going to be unusable and unsellable. I'm just talking about the cost of ownership. If you want to own from new, it's more expensive to buy these models then sell at X years old than it is to lease from new. E.g. VW ID Buzz - circa £5-£15k cheaper lease than purchase on a £66k EV, good treatment here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UdHlZLcGquk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UdHlZLcGquk We've seen similar with ICE too though, it's a peculiarity of the current UK market that it can be cheaper to lease a brand new Nissan Qashqai for 3 years than it is to buy a used 3 year old one and sell it at 6 years. That just should not compute but the market is skewed.

tomxor 3y ago
Yeah I think we are talking about different price ranges. I'm in the 90% who buys dirt cheap cars <5k which as a result are often very old already, but with ICE that can still result in a completely usable primary car, even with more expensive ICE maintenance it works out way cheaper. With ICE that strategy seems to result in a car with an impractical range, and no alternative at the same price bracket (even for total ownership).
- CraigJPerry 3y ago
  >> I'm in the 90% who buys dirt cheap cars <5k I know you're saying that as a turn of phrase, not meaning it literally but just because it's fun thing to speculate on... Just how big is that market? If there were 35m cars on the road in 2022 (according to UK gov) and there were 1.6million new cars sold in 2022 vs 7 million used car transactions in 2022 (according to SMMT https://www.smmt.co.uk/category/vehicle-data/used-car-sales-data/ https://www.smmt.co.uk/category/vehicle-data/used-car-sales-... ) I can't find details about the sources for those used transactions - is it only SMMT members so that would mean excluding all private sales? You'd have to imagine there are plenty private sales for <5k cars. Or is it relying on change of owner data from DVLA? Maybe - on their data sales pages they talk about sourcing data from DVLA then enriching it. Assuming for now that it doesn't include private sales, that dataset is already claiming that 20% of the 35m cars changed hands. How many more changed hands outside of that dataset? It's not that half my street changes their cars each year so there aren't that many private sales on top of this i think. So my best guess is that 90% market is probably max 20% but more likely 5-10%? 1.6m was a severely down year but that's still a heck of a lot of new cars for a country with only 35m cars on the road! Fun thing to explore.

tomxor 3y ago

Yeah I think we are talking about different price ranges. I'm in the 90% who buys dirt cheap cars <5k which as a result are often very old already, but with ICE that can still result in a completely usable primary car, even with more expensive ICE maintenance it works out way cheaper. With ICE that strategy seems to result in a car with an impractical range, and no alternative at the same price bracket (even for total ownership).

CraigJPerry 3y ago
>> I'm in the 90% who buys dirt cheap cars <5k I know you're saying that as a turn of phrase, not meaning it literally but just because it's fun thing to speculate on... Just how big is that market? If there were 35m cars on the road in 2022 (according to UK gov) and there were 1.6million new cars sold in 2022 vs 7 million used car transactions in 2022 (according to SMMT https://www.smmt.co.uk/category/vehicle-data/used-car-sales-data/ https://www.smmt.co.uk/category/vehicle-data/used-car-sales-... ) I can't find details about the sources for those used transactions - is it only SMMT members so that would mean excluding all private sales? You'd have to imagine there are plenty private sales for <5k cars. Or is it relying on change of owner data from DVLA? Maybe - on their data sales pages they talk about sourcing data from DVLA then enriching it. Assuming for now that it doesn't include private sales, that dataset is already claiming that 20% of the 35m cars changed hands. How many more changed hands outside of that dataset? It's not that half my street changes their cars each year so there aren't that many private sales on top of this i think. So my best guess is that 90% market is probably max 20% but more likely 5-10%? 1.6m was a severely down year but that's still a heck of a lot of new cars for a country with only 35m cars on the road! Fun thing to explore.