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I actually disagree with most of the comments here, and agree with the article. I recently had the same realisation that the article author did: that much more
by IsaacL 14y ago
I actually disagree with most of the comments here, and agree with the article. I recently had the same realisation that the article author did: that much more innovation seemed to have happened in the years 1870-2010 than the years 1972-2012. http://blog.i.saac.me/post/based-on-the-exhaustion-of-opportunities-economic-growth-in-developed-countries-will-end-sometime-after-2030/ http://blog.i.saac.me/post/based-on-the-exhaustion-of-opport...
I also degree with the people saying that the current legal system is the problem; in fact I don't think there's any way to speed up innovation at all. I think we're started to reach the limit of wealth-generating opportunities. The train, the telegraph, electricity, cars, factories -- these revolutionised people's lives. I think we're now getting close to peak "innovation" -- it's getting harder and harder to find new ways to seriously improve people's lives.
Smartphones and the internet have changed people's lives, too, but they're only major changes of the last few decades.
Now, a fair response might be -- we still don't have a cure for cancer! We still haven't colonised space! We still haven't built an AI! Nanorobots! 3D printing! And people are working on all those problems. And technologically, yes, they're much more complex and advanced than anything built in the industrial revolution.
But look at it from an economic point of view -- and I'm talking about the foundation of economics. Economics is based on value; human value. Stuff people want, as pg said.
I want a box on my desk that can print useful objects, but probably not as much as my great-great-grandfather wanted to be able to heat his home without having to burn things. We want a cure for cancer, but not as much as past generations wanted a cure for cholera, typhoid or the bubonic plague.
That's why processers keep getting faster but economic growth keeps slowing. Technology advances exponentially, but human wealth grows logistically. The natural limit is the limit of human happiness. Example: World economic growth is mostly driven by developing countries playing catch up to the West's living standards. Heck, even Adam Smith himself said that economic growth would only last a few centuries.
I guess each new iPhone app or Facebook game does make people marginally happier, the entertainment value does have economic value. But again, this is scraping the barrel of value creation. Are there still ways to majorly improve people's lives out there? Possibly, we're definitely not in utopia yet, but I think we'll need a new definition of wealth to get there.
I should really write up the above ideas into a proper blog post soon. Would be interested to hear people's opinions first.
- erichocean 14y agoGreat, but there's still billions and billions of people who aren't participating in all that "innovation", mostly due to the local strongmen in their particular geographic area. I don't have any answers, but it sure is frustrating that thousands of people will die today due to "solved" problems -- many from lack of food and water, of all things. :(
- johncarpinelli 14y agoThe innovations of the past century were easier for amateur inventors to build without capital. Think of the Wright Brothers - a couple of bicycle makers built the first powered aircraft. Could the equivalent pair of bicycle mechanics build the first reusable spaceship or electric flying car? Building a new space launch system will cost $500m+. Neither governments nor large aerospace firms are willing to take large risks with this amount of money. Incremental improvements to proven systems are much easier to justify. I think crowd-funding and the Internet will lead to a new boom in innovation. The Pebble watch is a good example. The VC's turned them down, and now the public has pre-purchased $7m of Pebble watches in two weeks. We need new forms of risk capital for inventors. VCs and governments are not going to fund enough high risk innovation. They both rejected my pitch for electric aviation saying it was "too ambitious for a startup" (http://electrictakeoff.com http://electrictakeoff.com).
- ippisl 14y agoWhat about simulation ? wouldn't some kind of precise simulation of this idea would decrease risk, improve the design and be much cheaper to make than a first prototype ? And then it would be much easier to get investment ?
- stcredzero 14y agoWhat about insurance based on simulation?
- ippisl 14y agoI don't agree that's less demand or incentive to innovations: big cost reductions and productivity improvements are still richly rewarded. Yes inventing new things is increasingly more complex, but there are ways to decrease this complexity. there's no wonder that there is a huge amount of software innovation, since the software field is deeply focused on decreasing complexity and enables new inventions.