4 ms·

My parents don't even know about chatgpt, the current gen of ai, &c. and they're not even retired yet. It's a bubble, most peeople don't know about it and most

My parents don't even know about chatgpt, the current gen of ai, &c. and they're not even retired yet. It's a bubble, most peeople don't know about it and most of the people who know about it heard of it through TV/Web news with "AI will replace your job in 6 months" kind of BS. idk why bing would become super popular all of a sudden when a good 90% of the web users are tech illiterate. In most people's head internet = google = chrome (and apple = safari because it just works) Even in my tech literate circles the new flavor of AI is barely used

siva7 3y ago
Your parents aren't exactly a predictor of current or future markets. Most people under 30 with the financial ability to buy a subscription have heard of ChatGPT. That's the only thing that counts in market terms.
- eagleusr 3y ago
  Agreed that origin commenter's two parents are not a great enough sample size to gauge the popularity of generative AI implementations such as ChatGPT.
  - lm28469 3y ago
    The data point is the article and reality. My comment was just part of the answer, aka real world AI usage is nowhere close to what people want to believe here. One commenter says everyone under 30 has a paid chatgpt account, yet chatgpt as a self reported user base of 185 millions, with only 100 millions unique active user per week, a far cry from every people under 30 with a spare 20$. Even if every single one of these people installed bing on all their devices it wouldn't make a dent... chrome is used by more than 3b people. I took a bet last year on this very forum about how chatgpt wouldn't become anywhere to what the HN prophets promised, I can take another bet for 2025 lmao https://www.demandsage.com/chatgpt-statistics/ https://www.demandsage.com/chatgpt-statistics/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/543218/worldwide-internet-users-by-browser/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/543218/worldwide-interne...
- wongarsu 3y ago
  GP's parents aren't a good datapoint because LLMs are still in the early adopter phase. Which tracks with LLMs not making a big difference in Bing's market share (yet).
- sebastianz 3y ago
  > Most people under 30 with the financial ability to buy a subscription have heard of ChatGPT. That's the only thing that counts in market terms You formulated this as if you are sure of it and it is a fact. Could you link a source?
  - reaperman 3y ago
    I have a lot of friends who have incredibly varied backgrounds and this rings true for me. A friend who grew up in the worst rural schools, still lives in mobile home 2.5 hours from the nearest major city, driving 35 minutes through the country to their restaurant job in their grandmothers car, while taking care of the 3-year old kid they had when they were 18 while co-parenting with their divorced husband, while dealing with felony drug charges, and makes <$1,500/month has absolutely grokked the realities of ChatGPT and Midjourney without me mentioning anything about it to them. Instagram and TikTok expose people to these trends and mobile apps with free accounts open up immediate exploration to the masses. Two friends who are 35 year old mostly-unemployed interior designers with an anthropology degree and no college degree are using it for drafting quotes. Every lawyer, MBB consultant, and computer programmer I know either uses them heavily or are aware of colleagues who do. I tutor a ton of students at a mid-tier state school, every single student I know in high school or university are using ChatGPT for their schoolwork. And the 5-7 year olds I know have much worse typing skills than I had at that age, because they use Siri to do 90% of the things on their phone/tablets. It annoys the shit out of me because it looks so painful and the noise of them talking to their phone is obnoxious, but I can absolutely see the paradigm changing to where the youngest generation might not even use keyboards for their first choice as a computing interface. Powerful LLM's will greatly improve their interaction with Siri.
- lm28469 3y ago
  > Your parents aren't exactly a predictor of current or future markets Sure but they have two phones, two laptops and a desktop, all of them running chrome with absolutely no reason to switch Hence I'm not surprised adding a gimmick to bing didn't create any market share movement 100m active chatgpt users 3b chrome users Do the maths, even pinterest and quora have 2-4 times more active users
  - siva7 3y ago
    Ok, let's do the math. How many pinterest and quora users are paying for a subscription? 0? How many chrome users? 0? How many ChatGPT users? 100m. That's far more impressive than having 3b users who can't or don't want to pay anything. Are pinterest, quora and google relying on the ads business model? Sure. OpenAI? Not so much. They have the users actually paying for the service.
    - lm28469 3y ago
      Does any of that have anything to do with bing market share ? (also no, not 100% of chatgpt users are paid users, far from it) Impressive or not I don't really care, all I'm saying is that even if they all left chrome to go to bing (and they didn't) it wouldn't have been much more than a 1% market share movement, which is what we've seen, hence there is no reason to be surprised.
    - lostmsu 3y ago
      > How many ChatGPT users? 100m 100m people are paying for ChatGPT?
      - morsch 3y ago
        No.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
bitshiftfaced 3y ago
One path to Bing's rise would be students who want school help, but don't want to pay for a ChatGPT subscription.
realusername 3y ago
People generally overestimate the short term effects of new technologies but underestimate the long term effects. I've heard the exact same things about smartphones in the past and now even my small village of 500 inhabitants is communicating with an app. It took a while though and suddenly, it was everywhere. The previous generations of AI (translation, text & image recognition...) are already widespread and there's no reason to think it won't be the same here in the future.
reaperman 3y ago
My grandparents barely ever figured out how to use a computer enough to use e-mail, despite email being quite popular for the last 25 years of their lives. It was always hit-or-miss whether they'd be able to open up the email client. I wouldn't use people who are 50+ as bellwethers to determine if something is a bubble vs. a new paradigm. LLM's will absolutely be the next transformative "interface" that we use to interact with our computing devices. They're just too powerful to ignore. Even the current generation would be amazing for my MacBook. Recently I had an issue at work where I took a new job that uses MacBooks instead of Windows and couldn't get Slack notifications to pop up reliably. I swore all my notification settings were correct both in the app and in system settings. Turns out that my laptop had "Do Not Disturb" mode on due to seeing that my work phone had it on. If Siri had a robust LLM that could connect to system and app settings via API, a high-quality LLM like ChatGPT absolutely would have automatically figured it out and been able to both tell me why the notifications weren't popping up and ask me if I'd like it to go ahead and fix the settings for me. LLM's will simplify complex computing systems for so many users. Yes, it will suck for tons of systems which implement it poorly or aren't conducive to speech/textual communication. But that's mostly a "skill-issue" for development teams implementing LLM's in apps/OS's, not a fundamental issue with the technology itself. LLM's may be approaching a temporary bubble, but we won't be in that "bubble" until after Windows, Mac, and Android build them in as first-class interfaces for one option for primary interaction with your devices. We already have touch GUI, mouse+keyboard GUI, and CLI interfaces, but will now get typing/speech-based LLM interfaces as a new paradigm.
- panarky 3y ago
  Non-technical people overwhelmingly buy Windows PCs. Windows PCs don't come with Chrome or Firefox or Brave. Non-technical people use the default IE preset to Bing. Windows makes it a pain for non-technical people to switch browsers or search engines. Even on a slanted playing field, Bing relevance is so bad that even non-technical people manage to climb over the hurdles Microsoft places in front of them to escape their defaults.
  - CamperBob2 3y ago
    Non-technical people don't buy PCs at all anymore. If they buy any type of computer at all, it's a Mac.
matrix87 3y ago
It's a bunch of forced hype, like the metaverse but with the media on board

siva7 3y ago

Your parents aren't exactly a predictor of current or future markets. Most people under 30 with the financial ability to buy a subscription have heard of ChatGPT. That's the only thing that counts in market terms.

eagleusr 3y ago
Agreed that origin commenter's two parents are not a great enough sample size to gauge the popularity of generative AI implementations such as ChatGPT.
- lm28469 3y ago
  The data point is the article and reality. My comment was just part of the answer, aka real world AI usage is nowhere close to what people want to believe here. One commenter says everyone under 30 has a paid chatgpt account, yet chatgpt as a self reported user base of 185 millions, with only 100 millions unique active user per week, a far cry from every people under 30 with a spare 20$. Even if every single one of these people installed bing on all their devices it wouldn't make a dent... chrome is used by more than 3b people. I took a bet last year on this very forum about how chatgpt wouldn't become anywhere to what the HN prophets promised, I can take another bet for 2025 lmao https://www.demandsage.com/chatgpt-statistics/ https://www.demandsage.com/chatgpt-statistics/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/543218/worldwide-internet-users-by-browser/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/543218/worldwide-interne...
wongarsu 3y ago
GP's parents aren't a good datapoint because LLMs are still in the early adopter phase. Which tracks with LLMs not making a big difference in Bing's market share (yet).
sebastianz 3y ago
> Most people under 30 with the financial ability to buy a subscription have heard of ChatGPT. That's the only thing that counts in market terms You formulated this as if you are sure of it and it is a fact. Could you link a source?
- reaperman 3y ago
  I have a lot of friends who have incredibly varied backgrounds and this rings true for me. A friend who grew up in the worst rural schools, still lives in mobile home 2.5 hours from the nearest major city, driving 35 minutes through the country to their restaurant job in their grandmothers car, while taking care of the 3-year old kid they had when they were 18 while co-parenting with their divorced husband, while dealing with felony drug charges, and makes <$1,500/month has absolutely grokked the realities of ChatGPT and Midjourney without me mentioning anything about it to them. Instagram and TikTok expose people to these trends and mobile apps with free accounts open up immediate exploration to the masses. Two friends who are 35 year old mostly-unemployed interior designers with an anthropology degree and no college degree are using it for drafting quotes. Every lawyer, MBB consultant, and computer programmer I know either uses them heavily or are aware of colleagues who do. I tutor a ton of students at a mid-tier state school, every single student I know in high school or university are using ChatGPT for their schoolwork. And the 5-7 year olds I know have much worse typing skills than I had at that age, because they use Siri to do 90% of the things on their phone/tablets. It annoys the shit out of me because it looks so painful and the noise of them talking to their phone is obnoxious, but I can absolutely see the paradigm changing to where the youngest generation might not even use keyboards for their first choice as a computing interface. Powerful LLM's will greatly improve their interaction with Siri.
lm28469 3y ago
> Your parents aren't exactly a predictor of current or future markets Sure but they have two phones, two laptops and a desktop, all of them running chrome with absolutely no reason to switch Hence I'm not surprised adding a gimmick to bing didn't create any market share movement 100m active chatgpt users 3b chrome users Do the maths, even pinterest and quora have 2-4 times more active users
- siva7 3y ago
  Ok, let's do the math. How many pinterest and quora users are paying for a subscription? 0? How many chrome users? 0? How many ChatGPT users? 100m. That's far more impressive than having 3b users who can't or don't want to pay anything. Are pinterest, quora and google relying on the ads business model? Sure. OpenAI? Not so much. They have the users actually paying for the service.
  - lm28469 3y ago
    Does any of that have anything to do with bing market share ? (also no, not 100% of chatgpt users are paid users, far from it) Impressive or not I don't really care, all I'm saying is that even if they all left chrome to go to bing (and they didn't) it wouldn't have been much more than a 1% market share movement, which is what we've seen, hence there is no reason to be surprised.
  - lostmsu 3y ago
    > How many ChatGPT users? 100m 100m people are paying for ChatGPT?
    - morsch 3y ago
      No.
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]

bitshiftfaced 3y ago

One path to Bing's rise would be students who want school help, but don't want to pay for a ChatGPT subscription.

realusername 3y ago

People generally overestimate the short term effects of new technologies but underestimate the long term effects. I've heard the exact same things about smartphones in the past and now even my small village of 500 inhabitants is communicating with an app. It took a while though and suddenly, it was everywhere. The previous generations of AI (translation, text & image recognition...) are already widespread and there's no reason to think it won't be the same here in the future.

reaperman 3y ago

My grandparents barely ever figured out how to use a computer enough to use e-mail, despite email being quite popular for the last 25 years of their lives. It was always hit-or-miss whether they'd be able to open up the email client. I wouldn't use people who are 50+ as bellwethers to determine if something is a bubble vs. a new paradigm. LLM's will absolutely be the next transformative "interface" that we use to interact with our computing devices. They're just too powerful to ignore. Even the current generation would be amazing for my MacBook. Recently I had an issue at work where I took a new job that uses MacBooks instead of Windows and couldn't get Slack notifications to pop up reliably. I swore all my notification settings were correct both in the app and in system settings. Turns out that my laptop had "Do Not Disturb" mode on due to seeing that my work phone had it on. If Siri had a robust LLM that could connect to system and app settings via API, a high-quality LLM like ChatGPT absolutely would have automatically figured it out and been able to both tell me why the notifications weren't popping up and ask me if I'd like it to go ahead and fix the settings for me. LLM's will simplify complex computing systems for so many users. Yes, it will suck for tons of systems which implement it poorly or aren't conducive to speech/textual communication. But that's mostly a "skill-issue" for development teams implementing LLM's in apps/OS's, not a fundamental issue with the technology itself. LLM's may be approaching a temporary bubble, but we won't be in that "bubble" until after Windows, Mac, and Android build them in as first-class interfaces for one option for primary interaction with your devices. We already have touch GUI, mouse+keyboard GUI, and CLI interfaces, but will now get typing/speech-based LLM interfaces as a new paradigm.

panarky 3y ago
Non-technical people overwhelmingly buy Windows PCs. Windows PCs don't come with Chrome or Firefox or Brave. Non-technical people use the default IE preset to Bing. Windows makes it a pain for non-technical people to switch browsers or search engines. Even on a slanted playing field, Bing relevance is so bad that even non-technical people manage to climb over the hurdles Microsoft places in front of them to escape their defaults.
- CamperBob2 3y ago
  Non-technical people don't buy PCs at all anymore. If they buy any type of computer at all, it's a Mac.

matrix87 3y ago

It's a bunch of forced hype, like the metaverse but with the media on board