3 ms·

I feel like this assumes the old world order is still in place when it clearly isn't. Even in the last two years it's undergone a radical shift, let alone from

I feel like this assumes the old world order is still in place when it clearly isn't. Even in the last two years it's undergone a radical shift, let alone from the time since the Trump / Kim meeting. Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, wars and conflicts are cascading across the globe at an ever increasing clip. Hamas' attack on Israel, the attacks in the Red Sea, Iran hitting Iraq, Pakistan and Syria with ballistic missiles, Venezuela threatening to annex territory all happened over the last few months. Destabilization of the order is evident everywhere.

Geisterde 3y ago
Yea, but nobody wants to piss off the US if they can avoid it. Sanctions remain effective against north korea, and it doesnt look like they will find any relief under such a chaotic regime. You might see the cracks in the foundation and say its finished, but there is a lot of bureaucratic momentum that can keep the empire going. This would be a smart strategy, playing into the general sense of global conflict and chaos, rolling the dice for a more favorable geopolitical standing.
- JumpCrisscross 3y ago
  > nobody wants to piss off the US if they can avoid it I don’t think this is a valid high-confidence assumption anymore. From Venezuela to Iran, it’s clear American military resolve is being tested.
  - rokkitmensch 3y ago
    And efficacy outright called into doubt in the Red Sea.
    - JumpCrisscross 3y ago
      > efficacy outright called into doubt in the Red Sea Not really. It's a resolve issue. America is technically capable of deteroriorating the Houthis' ability to fire into the Red Sea. (Last week's strikes took out something like a quarter of their current capability.) The problem is that would invite a broader conflagration with Iran, which the American electorate is not ready to stomach.
      - baybal2 3y ago
        [dead]

3 ms·

I feel like this assumes the old world order is still in place when it clearly isn't. Even in the last two years it's undergone a radical shift, let alone from

by moose_man 3y ago

Geisterde 3y ago
Yea, but nobody wants to piss off the US if they can avoid it. Sanctions remain effective against north korea, and it doesnt look like they will find any relief under such a chaotic regime. You might see the cracks in the foundation and say its finished, but there is a lot of bureaucratic momentum that can keep the empire going. This would be a smart strategy, playing into the general sense of global conflict and chaos, rolling the dice for a more favorable geopolitical standing.
- JumpCrisscross 3y ago
  > nobody wants to piss off the US if they can avoid it I don’t think this is a valid high-confidence assumption anymore. From Venezuela to Iran, it’s clear American military resolve is being tested.
  - rokkitmensch 3y ago
    And efficacy outright called into doubt in the Red Sea.
    - JumpCrisscross 3y ago
      > efficacy outright called into doubt in the Red Sea Not really. It's a resolve issue. America is technically capable of deteroriorating the Houthis' ability to fire into the Red Sea. (Last week's strikes took out something like a quarter of their current capability.) The problem is that would invite a broader conflagration with Iran, which the American electorate is not ready to stomach.
      - baybal2 3y ago
        [dead]