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I think so too, but we should also understand that authoritarians are not rational. Before February 2022, I would have bet a big sum on Putin never authorizing

I think so too, but we should also understand that authoritarians are not rational. Before February 2022, I would have bet a big sum on Putin never authorizing a full-scale Ukraine invasion. There was just too much to lose and too little to gain theoretically…yet he did it anyways.

breckenedge 3y ago
Putin was lied to about the capabilities of his forces. Now we’re seeing the same thing with Xi, except heads are rolling _before_ the invasion gets underway.
cpursley 3y ago
[flagged]
- dralley 3y ago
  Just because it's not literally "total war", does not make it limited in scope.
  - cpursley 3y ago
    Well, it is limited in scope and they literally stated their territorial objectives when they set out. Full scale is mobilizing your entire economy towards the war effort and calling up millions. And it’s taking out the opposing sides military and civilian leadership and all of their critical infrastructure. That’s full scale. I really hope we don’t see full scale.
    - dralley 3y ago
      I believe they "started" with claiming that statements that the they were about to invade Ukraine were absurd lies, followed shortly later with claims they would control the entire country in three days along with some maps that included Moldova, followed shortly thereafter with lots of nuclear saber rattling when things started going south. There have also been dozens of assassination attempts against Ukraine's civilian and military leadership, and against Russia's as well, some of which have been successful. The fact that most attempts don't work out doesn't mean it's not happening.
      - cpursley 3y ago
        > entire country in three days > dozens of assassination attempts > lots of nuclear saber rattling Sources, please.
- nerdix 3y ago
  It absolutely was a full scale invasion. It just failed.
  - cpursley 3y ago
    [flagged]
    - trust_bt_verify 3y ago
      No, they set out to take the Kiev in 3 days. They never got close. It was a spectacular failure based on the power imbalance between the two countries.
      - cpursley 3y ago
        [flagged]
        trust_bt_verify 3y ago
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Kyiv_convoy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Kyiv_convoy But I guess you are right on one point, Russia knew how weak their armed forces are and doubted themselves so heavily they never said it out loud. It was just the rest of the world that finally saw what a paper tiger Putin's forces are. This really doesn't help your argument that they are in the running to be a world power one day.
        cpursley 3y ago
        FYI the "3 day" thing actually came from General Milley: https://www.foxnews.com/us/gen-milley-says-kyiv-could-fall-within-72-hours-if-russia-decides-to-invade-ukraine-sources https://www.foxnews.com/us/gen-milley-says-kyiv-could-fall-w... Also, from your linked Wikipedia: "The convoy stalled 8 days into the war, at approximately 30 kilometers (19 mi) from the center of the city of Kyiv; as of 7 March 2022, according to U.S. defense officials, the column had not moved at all for a few days." Isn't it interesting how those "stalled convoy" dates line up with these "peace" negotiations (and that Ukraine didn't burn them Road of Death style when they very easily could have)?: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peace_negotiations_in_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peace_negotiations_in_the_Russ...

breckenedge 3y ago

Putin was lied to about the capabilities of his forces. Now we’re seeing the same thing with Xi, except heads are rolling _before_ the invasion gets underway.

cpursley 3y ago

[flagged]

dralley 3y ago
Just because it's not literally "total war", does not make it limited in scope.
- cpursley 3y ago
  Well, it is limited in scope and they literally stated their territorial objectives when they set out. Full scale is mobilizing your entire economy towards the war effort and calling up millions. And it’s taking out the opposing sides military and civilian leadership and all of their critical infrastructure. That’s full scale. I really hope we don’t see full scale.
  - dralley 3y ago
    I believe they "started" with claiming that statements that the they were about to invade Ukraine were absurd lies, followed shortly later with claims they would control the entire country in three days along with some maps that included Moldova, followed shortly thereafter with lots of nuclear saber rattling when things started going south. There have also been dozens of assassination attempts against Ukraine's civilian and military leadership, and against Russia's as well, some of which have been successful. The fact that most attempts don't work out doesn't mean it's not happening.
    - cpursley 3y ago
      > entire country in three days > dozens of assassination attempts > lots of nuclear saber rattling Sources, please.
nerdix 3y ago
It absolutely was a full scale invasion. It just failed.
- cpursley 3y ago
  [flagged]
  - trust_bt_verify 3y ago
    No, they set out to take the Kiev in 3 days. They never got close. It was a spectacular failure based on the power imbalance between the two countries.
    - cpursley 3y ago
      [flagged]
      - trust_bt_verify 3y ago
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Kyiv_convoy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Kyiv_convoy But I guess you are right on one point, Russia knew how weak their armed forces are and doubted themselves so heavily they never said it out loud. It was just the rest of the world that finally saw what a paper tiger Putin's forces are. This really doesn't help your argument that they are in the running to be a world power one day.
        cpursley 3y ago
        FYI the "3 day" thing actually came from General Milley: https://www.foxnews.com/us/gen-milley-says-kyiv-could-fall-within-72-hours-if-russia-decides-to-invade-ukraine-sources https://www.foxnews.com/us/gen-milley-says-kyiv-could-fall-w... Also, from your linked Wikipedia: "The convoy stalled 8 days into the war, at approximately 30 kilometers (19 mi) from the center of the city of Kyiv; as of 7 March 2022, according to U.S. defense officials, the column had not moved at all for a few days." Isn't it interesting how those "stalled convoy" dates line up with these "peace" negotiations (and that Ukraine didn't burn them Road of Death style when they very easily could have)?: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peace_negotiations_in_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peace_negotiations_in_the_Russ...