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What's an example of a useful known upper bound where terrible effects are guaranteed but we haven't had to actually live through them? Naming that we don't kn
by abeppu 3y ago
What's an example of a useful known upper bound where terrible effects are guaranteed but we haven't had to actually live through them?
Naming that we don't know the specific values is important; given the stakes at play, the fact that we don't know where they are ought to push us to stay close to the lower bounds. If we want to discover where the boundaries are, we can, but only at great cost.
- mlyle 3y agoE.g. a value of CO2 where by direct radiative forcing, without feedback, terrible stuff happens.
- abeppu 3y agoRight, so for the purposes of predicting what will happen on our actual planet, on which our continued existence is dependent, this is a very loose upper bound right? I'm not claiming that knowledge of where the boundary values lie is somehow epistemically unavailable. But there's some important, lower, unknown value, beyond which a bunch of very bad stuff will already happen, and learning the exact values through experience is extremely costly. In the context of responding to this report which is saying "we have already crossed the boundaries! (and we should immediately try to course correct)" rather than squabbling about "well, do you really know the boundary on each of these factors", I think the more honest and pragmatic reframing is to say "we don't know where the boundaries are, but we're headed rapidly away from the known safe region, and we should turn back immediately."