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> I have no doubt that things are getting worse. but reading speeches from 20 years ago, right now we would all be dead, beneath the sea, no food, etc etc. Whi
by mlyle 3y ago
> I have no doubt that things are getting worse. but reading speeches from 20 years ago, right now we would all be dead, beneath the sea, no food, etc etc.
While you may have had some crazies saying massive ocean rise was imminent, etc-- that was never a reasonable belief. It's going to take decades before it clears out lots of habitable coastal land.
Early 80's papers said by 2025 we'd have 13-55 cm of sea level rise. It's the beginning of 2024, and we've had about 15cm (a bit above the low end of the range with a year to go); the slope of the increase is now around the middle of the forecasted range-- similar magnitude of effect, but it took a bit longer than most authors thought to get going.
https://www.google.com/books/edition/Projecting_Future_Sea_Level_Rise/c1Hls8bvKT8C?hl=en&gbpv=1&dq=extrapolate+the+sea-level+rise+to+the+year+2000&pg=PA39&printsec=frontcover#v=onepage&q&f=false https://www.google.com/books/edition/Projecting_Future_Sea_L...
> Ok. so that was 20 years ago, its still: "Unless we act right now, NOW, we are all FUCKED".
The thing is, we're already all fucked. A lot of the negative consequences are now locked in (though we're not sure how badly). Now we're just playing the game of adding more negative consequences.