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> it can form and maintain an objective; Yes and yes. > it can identify plausible steps to achieve that objective; It can predict. > it can accurately predi
by kubanczyk 3y ago
> it can form and maintain an objective;
Yes and yes.
> it can identify plausible steps to achieve that objective;
It can predict.
> it can accurately predict human responses to its actions;
It can predict.
> it can decently model the environment, as we can;
It can predict.
> it can hide its objectives from interrogators, and convince them that its actions are in their interests;
It can predict.
> it can deliver enough value to be capable of earning money through its actions;
It can predict.
> it can propose ideas that can convince investors to part with $100 billion;
It can predict.
> it can design a chemical plant...
It can predict.
- mitthrowaway2 3y agoI don't think a prediction is truly a prediction when it's not being compared against a reference. It's really only a prediction during training; the rest of the time it's synthesis. But again I'll repeat my point: "I also wouldn't underestimate the power of token prediction". It's very well possible that accurate token prediction may be the only necessary fundamental ingredient to weather forecasting, writing a successful novel, compiling a pitch deck for investors, designing a chemical plant... Humans can eat, talk, predict, reproduce, and wiggle our limbs and fingers, but it turns out that there's a lot of complex recipes that you can bake with those ingredients.
- kubanczyk 3y agoWho cares about weather or factories? The missing big ingredient is predicting humans a bit better than another human can. This would unlock a humongous multiplier. All the rest seems peanuts, really. Re: synthesis, I wasn't aware of such distinction at all, it looks more like a misunderstanding.