3 ms·
Probably not, by itself, but I'm worried that the same interest rate forces that are breaking the commercial real estate market affect the stock & corporate bon
by nostrademons 3y ago
Probably not, by itself, but I'm worried that the same interest rate forces that are breaking the commercial real estate market affect the stock & corporate bond markets, and that absolutely can drag you down as well.
The CMBS market is about $1T in total asset value. It's comparable to Bitcoin. It's significantly less than the $9T in residential MBS that caused the 2008 crash. So if CMBS crash is likely to have financial effects similar to a crypto crash (of which we've had several) or the drop in value of FANGs (total CMBS market size is about the same size as Meta's market cap).
The problem is that commercial real estate's woes are caused as much by the interest rate hikes as they are by WFH - notice that CRE (outside of certain locations like SF) did fine in 2020-2021, but now has really big problems. And the interest rate hikes absolutely do affect corporate bonds and the stock market, and yet have not really been priced in. Corporate bonds exhibited a "taper tantrum" when interest rates went up to 2.25% in 2018; rates are now more than double that. Most of this is long-term debt coming due 2025-2027, but if rates do not drop before then, we could see corporate bankruptcies and unemployment that make 2008 look like nothing.