One of the big factors is whether or not AI can stay in the hands of the public or if it recedes into levels of hardware that only companies can own. If the lat

One of the big factors is whether or not AI can stay in the hands of the public or if it recedes into levels of hardware that only companies can own. If the latter, then the control will win. Keeping AI performance workable on personal-level hardware is going to be a big deal. Open source work on keeping performance at that level may be long-term more important that this or that feature. Watch out for calls for AI ethics to turn into calls for controls on hardware capable of running AI. I'm half surprised we aren't already hearing calls for that. I wouldn't be surprised to see it by the end of the year, though my expectation would be at least next year if not the one after. The real goal behind hardware control will be this sort of thing (though copyright control may actually be a secondary concern versus just keeping the really good tools out of the hands of the plebs), not AI ethics. (The elites know AI ethics limitations have no meanings as they have no intention of limiting themselves.)