4 ms·

Is it hopelessly crude? I mean the model is definitely wrong by some high level behavior might be useful enough

• FrustratedMonky 3y ago
  How do you know it is wrong? To be definitely wrong, wouldn't you need another more accurate model to compare to it, to disprove it?
  • swader999 3y ago
    Run it on past data to see how it predicts against known recent climate and watch for curve fitting.
    • FrustratedMonky 3y ago
      I guess you are saying that those failed? I doubt that. Since those types of runs are done all the time to improve accuracy. Or more to point, it isn't like there was one-run, we take that as gospel, then run on past data, and failed, so models are wrong forever. They are always being refined. And some of the longest range calculations, that were done decades ago, are matching. So what model are you specifically saying failed?
    • FrustratedMonky 3y ago
      ""The hallmark of good science, however, is the ability to make testable predictions, and climate models have been making predictions since the 1970s. How reliable have they been? Now a new evaluation of global climate models used to project Earth’s future global average surface temperatures over the past half-century answers that question: most of the models have been quite accurate."" https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2943/study-confirms-climate-models-are-getting-future-warming-projections-right/ https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2943/study-confirms-climate-mo...