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Space Solar is really coming from a DARPA initiative to build microwave beams from space as a weapon system to intercept missiles and other targets. The idea of

Space Solar is really coming from a DARPA initiative to build microwave beams from space as a weapon system to intercept missiles and other targets. The idea of selling solar power from space is another contrived commercial dual-use application to justify the technology development. A similar history was followed for Starlink which is not commercially viable without its basis in furthering SDI technology. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink#Military_capabilities https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink#Military_capabilities

kortilla 3y ago
Starlink is separate and viable without Starshield. They are independent programs: https://www.space.com/spacex-starshield-space-force-contract https://www.space.com/spacex-starshield-space-force-contract
- forgot-im-old 3y ago
  Starlink performance trends have shown it is not viable alone. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink#Subscribers https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink#Subscribers
  - s1artibartfast 3y ago
    nothing about that screams "not viable" to me.
    - forgot-im-old 3y ago
      Those charts show each of the newest satellites buys ~400 paying subscribers (per additional satellite). Build, launch, operating for one satellite--while low for SpaceX--is too expensive for that to make sense. If they try to do more than 400 users per satellite, the service throughout plummets.
      - s1artibartfast 3y ago
        I get 500 customers/satellite (2,300,000/4,500) since 2021, and 1000 new customers per satellite for Q3 2023. Using the lower number of 500 at $120/month, that is $7,200 per customer, or $3.6 Million per satellite over a 5 year lifetime. 4600 operational satellites (out of 5700) over 134 launches equals 34/ launch or $124 million revenue. or $250 million/launch if we want to use thee 1000 users/satellite number. Space X sells commercial falcon 9 launches for $ 67 million (to GTO opposed LEO) and this already includes a profit margin. It still isn't obvious to me.
      - kortilla 3y ago
        This math is completely wrong with even a trivial napkin check. They announced 2 million users with fewer than 4k sats in orbit (presumably even fewer serving). Let’s assume 2 mil by 4k for simple math, which yields 500 users per sat. However, the vast majority of the sats are not where the bulk of their customer base is (US and Europe) at any given moment. That means that the 5% of sats over user dense areas at any given point in time are capable of carrying 100% of the current load. Stated differently, they have sats capable of serving the US user density sitting over every other country in the latitude bands of those orbits just waiting for licensing. I.e. User count could 10x on the current constellation if the growth is outside of the existing markets.
  - kortilla 3y ago
    A trend of a network being so popular the user growth outpaces capacity?
weregiraffe 3y ago
> A similar history was followed for Starlink which is not commercially viable without its basis in furthering SDI technology. This is complete nonsense.
- forgot-im-old 3y ago
  Apparently you didn't read the link.
- ithkuil 3y ago
  "calling bullshit" is a reasonable act and we all should be able to wield that power. That said I often wish there was an effective way to communicate whether one calls bullshit because of gut feeling or not convinced by the readily available evidence and/or priors, or whether one calls bullshit because they know more details and are just deflecting actual well known bullshit but for some reason preferred to omit the details (e.g. because they value terseness). Terseness is beautiful, but not when it actually hinders communication
  - weregiraffe 3y ago
    A person can use Google for 5 minutes to realize that a company does not launch 5000 satellites (surpassing all other launcher companies on Earth combined by mass launched in the process) as part of some kinda US research subsidy. Of course, if a person is already poisoned by twitter discourse to the point where they substitute their own reality just to keep hating Musk, then all hope is lost...
    - ithkuil 3y ago
      Yeah I agree, as a layperson with the ability to google 5 minutes and have my own priors I can reach the same conclusion. What I'm saying OTOH is that I have no way to know whether you have some more insightful things to say about this since you just called bullshit without any further details. I hoped you had more details
      - 3y ago

kortilla 3y ago

Starlink is separate and viable without Starshield. They are independent programs: https://www.space.com/spacex-starshield-space-force-contract https://www.space.com/spacex-starshield-space-force-contract

forgot-im-old 3y ago
Starlink performance trends have shown it is not viable alone. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink#Subscribers https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink#Subscribers
- s1artibartfast 3y ago
  nothing about that screams "not viable" to me.
  - forgot-im-old 3y ago
    Those charts show each of the newest satellites buys ~400 paying subscribers (per additional satellite). Build, launch, operating for one satellite--while low for SpaceX--is too expensive for that to make sense. If they try to do more than 400 users per satellite, the service throughout plummets.
    - s1artibartfast 3y ago
      I get 500 customers/satellite (2,300,000/4,500) since 2021, and 1000 new customers per satellite for Q3 2023. Using the lower number of 500 at $120/month, that is $7,200 per customer, or $3.6 Million per satellite over a 5 year lifetime. 4600 operational satellites (out of 5700) over 134 launches equals 34/ launch or $124 million revenue. or $250 million/launch if we want to use thee 1000 users/satellite number. Space X sells commercial falcon 9 launches for $ 67 million (to GTO opposed LEO) and this already includes a profit margin. It still isn't obvious to me.
    - kortilla 3y ago
      This math is completely wrong with even a trivial napkin check. They announced 2 million users with fewer than 4k sats in orbit (presumably even fewer serving). Let’s assume 2 mil by 4k for simple math, which yields 500 users per sat. However, the vast majority of the sats are not where the bulk of their customer base is (US and Europe) at any given moment. That means that the 5% of sats over user dense areas at any given point in time are capable of carrying 100% of the current load. Stated differently, they have sats capable of serving the US user density sitting over every other country in the latitude bands of those orbits just waiting for licensing. I.e. User count could 10x on the current constellation if the growth is outside of the existing markets.
- kortilla 3y ago
  A trend of a network being so popular the user growth outpaces capacity?

weregiraffe 3y ago

> A similar history was followed for Starlink which is not commercially viable without its basis in furthering SDI technology. This is complete nonsense.

forgot-im-old 3y ago
Apparently you didn't read the link.
ithkuil 3y ago
"calling bullshit" is a reasonable act and we all should be able to wield that power. That said I often wish there was an effective way to communicate whether one calls bullshit because of gut feeling or not convinced by the readily available evidence and/or priors, or whether one calls bullshit because they know more details and are just deflecting actual well known bullshit but for some reason preferred to omit the details (e.g. because they value terseness). Terseness is beautiful, but not when it actually hinders communication
- weregiraffe 3y ago
  A person can use Google for 5 minutes to realize that a company does not launch 5000 satellites (surpassing all other launcher companies on Earth combined by mass launched in the process) as part of some kinda US research subsidy. Of course, if a person is already poisoned by twitter discourse to the point where they substitute their own reality just to keep hating Musk, then all hope is lost...
  - ithkuil 3y ago
    Yeah I agree, as a layperson with the ability to google 5 minutes and have my own priors I can reach the same conclusion. What I'm saying OTOH is that I have no way to know whether you have some more insightful things to say about this since you just called bullshit without any further details. I hoped you had more details
    - 3y ago