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The statistical analysis doesn't seem to go beyond correlations, so this could well be just an instance of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spurious_relationship h
by t_mann 3y ago
The statistical analysis doesn't seem to go beyond correlations, so this could well be just an instance of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spurious_relationship https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spurious_relationship, ie a statistical fluke like marriage rates correlating negatively with longevity or pirate activity with climate change.
- tootie 3y agoIt may be but that doesn't mean it's not interesting. I doubt the relationship for is truly spurious but it's certainly indirect. Even if we determine that crime and interest rates are driven by the same external forces it will force us to evaluate policy on another axis.
- t_mann 3y agoThe link between the decline of piracy and rising global temperatures was the industrialization of the British empire - studying piracy (unsurprisingly) wouldn't have yielded any insights on climate change. Similarly, interest rates may have not much to tell us about crime.
- randomdata 3y agoWhen observed over short timeframes, there is clear seasonal variability along with decline in oceanographic piracy when the weather conditions are unfavourable to the activity. A study on the decline of piracy over the long timeframe would notice that the trend is down due to increasingly rougher seas – caused by climate change.
- beej71 3y agoMaybe the age of Miss America correlating with number of murders by steam, hot vapors, or hot objects would be a more and less interesting example. https://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations https://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations