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This is junk analysis because there will always be signals that randomly correlate. There are a lot of signals out there that we can plot pairwise and the axise
by roenxi 3y ago
This is junk analysis because there will always be signals that randomly correlate. There are a lot of signals out there that we can plot pairwise and the axises here aren't identical. All this says is that long term interest rates formed a hump shape, and crime formed a hump shape. There are so many hump shapes it is just a matter of finding 2 humps that peaked around the same time.
Not only that, but in this case peak interest rates were around the infamous 1970s era when a lot of policies change. So even if these are related, there is probably a hidden variable that a lot of policies changed at the same time and the two series still aren't causally related. There was likely a policy refresh on how crime gets handled at the same time as there was a policy reset on how interest rates were managed.
- FrustratedMonky 3y agoYeah, this is exactly what I thought. Interest Rates correlate to a lot of things. Seems like stretch to say there is a cause, not just correlation. Like, there is more crime in cities, but, because there are also more people. What is per-capita crime. Small town with 10 people, 1 felon, man, they are 10% felons.
- WarOnPrivacy 3y ago> Seems like stretch to say there is a cause, not just correlation. A better take might be that they reliably happen together.
- rimeice 3y agoYeh, this. The frequency of babies named Jeffrey[1] follows this pattern. Maybe all this crime was committed by Jefferys? [1] https://namerology.com/2022/03/08/the-ultimate-baby-name-grapher-is-here/amp/ https://namerology.com/2022/03/08/the-ultimate-baby-name-gra...