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> Consider a world in which AI existential risk is real: where at some point AI systems become dramatically more capable than human minds, in a way that has cat
by simiones 3y ago
> Consider a world in which AI existential risk is real: where at some point AI systems become dramatically more capable than human minds, in a way that has catastrophic consequences for humanity.
Consider a world where AGI requires another 1000 years of research in computation and cognition before it materializes. Would it even be possible to ban all research that is required to get there? We can make all sorts of arguments if we start from imagined worlds and work our way back.
So far, it seems the biggest pieces of the puzzle missing between the first attempts at using neural nets and today's successes in GPT-4 were: (1) extremely fast linear algebra processors (GPGPUs), (2) the accumulation of gigantic bodies of text on the internet, and in a very distant third, (3) improvements in NN architecture for NLP.
But (3) would have meant nothing without (1) and (2), while it's very likely that other architectures would have been found that are at least close to GPT-4 performance. So, if you think GPT-4 is close to AGI and just needs a little push, the best thing to do would be to (1) put a moratorium on hardware performance research, or even outright ban existing high-FLOPS hardware, (2) prevent further accumulation of knowledge on the internet and maybe outright destroy existing archives.