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For clarity, the Rosenfeld study referenced in the Pinkerton article (while talking about inflation rather than Interest Rates) also uses the UCR dataset as its
by Shrezzing 3y ago
For clarity, the Rosenfeld study referenced in the Pinkerton article (while talking about inflation rather than Interest Rates) also uses the UCR dataset as its primary datasource, while its european equivalent, also collected from police reporting, is used for its non-American datasource.
- ttyprintk 3y agoYeah, the section intriguing to me was: ‘ The work of the historian David Hackett Fischer identified four major instances of inflation in Western history, in the 14th, 16th, 18th, and 20th centuries. In each of these periods, violent and property crime rates increased, and then fell once prices stabilized. When inflation decreased in the early 1990s, both Europe and the United States saw a corresponding decline in crime.’ Other sources use something called the Modified Wald Causality test, which should only be convincing to someone already acquainted with the field. The modern European data comes from Interpol, which might suffer the same collection bias as USA. We’re looking at first-order changes, anyway, so I wager this causality test can be sensible, even if the incoming data suffers from a linear bias.