5 ms·

The question the paper asks is: if all of global electricity is generated using solar panels, will that have any impact on weather or climate elsewhere. Their

The question the paper asks is: if all of global electricity is generated using solar panels, will that have any impact on weather or climate elsewhere. Their model: Put all of those solar panels in Northern Africa!!! In this extreme scenario, yes, their are possible impacts. Since, such an extreme scenario is unlikely to happen, this is only an intellectual exercise. Paper link: https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-01117-5 https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-01117-5

calamari4065 3y ago
I still think that's an important question to answer, though. Yes, obviously we aren't going to pave an entire desert with PV, but it's worth asking what the consequences would be because we might someday, or might do something similar.
JumpCrisscross 3y ago
> Their model: Put all of those solar panels in Northern Africa!!! This is how you develop a model. Ask if there are effects in extremis. If not, easy answer. If there are, you figure out how to measure them and then deploy that metric on the hard stuff.
- qayxc 3y ago
  No. This is how you generate attention. The proposed dimensions are equivalent to several centuries(!) of the global solar panel production, just to get to such coverage. It's just as ridiculous and removed from reality as the claim that tidal energy isn't sustainable and would tidally lock Earth to the Moon in 1000 years that someone published [1]. Spherical cows for the publish-or-perish paper mill that's modern academia is what it is. [1] https://cs.stanford.edu/people/zjl/pdf/tide.pdf https://cs.stanford.edu/people/zjl/pdf/tide.pdf
  - nico_h 3y ago
    The time frame could probably be reduced if the demand was that high :)
  - mcv 3y ago
    The example is extreme, but they also point that out in the article. It's still useful to be able to model this, and as they point out, if you use a less extreme but still extremely ambitious 5% of the Sahara, the effect becomes negligible. So in theory, solar power could affect the climate by itself, but it practice it won't. But a model that shows that if you change something in this part of the world, it's going to affect rainfall in these other parts of the world, is still very interesting and potentially useful. It could help reduce desertification.
  - JumpCrisscross 3y ago
    > Spherical cows You’re using theoretical physics as your basis for criticising academia?
salynchnew 3y ago
Trying to imagine the transmission capacity required to pull off routing all of the world's electricity from a single place in North Africa. However, it seems like their model just shows a modest-ish heat island effect? It's not clear that the change in the albedo from even covering 50% of the Sahara in PV panels is much worse than the likely effects of climate change under the typical +2 degree C climate model?
- defrost 3y ago
  They're still barely ankle deep in analysis to be honest. Saharan sand has some not obvious from the outset effects on global climatic patterns (it's worth a look into). More than 60 percent of the 1.5 billion tons of mineral-rich dust present in the earth's atmosphere comes from the Sahara. Individual dust clouds can reach a size of 500,000 square kilometers, an area equivalent to that of Spain. As these dust particles are only airborne for a short while, it's difficult to analyze the full extent of their impact. https://www.britannica.com/video/179439/Overview-desert-sand-climate-effects-focus-Sahara https://www.britannica.com/video/179439/Overview-desert-sand... How would a significant chunk of area under PV panelling ... * survive abrasive desert conditions, * alter local wind | sand movement patterns, * affect other parts of the globe that until now had saharan sand as an input.
  - gumby 3y ago
    BTW the iron content of that airborne dust turns bermuda pink, fertilizes the Amazon, and drives the destruction of atmospheric methane.
    - the_sleaze9 3y ago
      Fascinating - is there any chance you have some links about this?
      - gumby 3y ago
        A web image search of Bermuda will show you plenty of pink. There’s evens a “Bermuda pink “ color. The first link when I did a search for “Sahara fertilizes Amazon”: https://blog.education.nationalgeographic.org/2015/02/26/watch-the-sahara-fertilize-the-amazon/ https://blog.education.nationalgeographic.org/2015/02/26/wat... Where I work: https://www.bluedotchange.com/science https://www.bluedotchange.com/science
rodgerd 3y ago
> this is only an intellectual exercise. That's very charitable. Made up crises for renewable energy are demonstrably astroturfed by fossil fuel companies.
- sundvor 3y ago
  Headlines everywhere: "The electric car battery fires!!" Even if just theoretical ones. And the inevitable drones of people commenting on those stories how horrible EVs are. (Even though ICEs are roughly 100x more likely to catch on fire in a crash). It's hard to not see a certain % of that as pure astroturfing, indeed.
  - rokkitmensch 3y ago
    EV's better be 100x difficult to light on fire, given how much of a pain they are to extinguish. I'd loved to have been a fly on the wall of the meetings where how much money to spend on reducing ignition risk was dickered out.
    - abhibeckert 3y ago
      They're not that hard to extinguish, you can just wait for them to stop burning on their own. Which is generally how car fires are also extinguished. The good news is EV fires take a long time to burn through the fuel, allowing anyone in the vehicle plenty of time to safely get out of the car. Sure, it's a bit annoying for the fire fighters who turn up 20 minutes later... but I think even they would rather arrive to find a burning car if it means the people who were in that car are safely watching from a distance.
      - rodgerd 3y ago
        > They're not that hard to extinguish, you can just wait for them to stop burning on their own. Pity about the apartment building that burns down around them, eh?
rob74 3y ago
...an intellectual exercise which is an invitation for sensationalist reporting to misquote and for climate denialists/fossil fuel lobbyists to then use as a reason for opposing solar power.

calamari4065 3y ago

I still think that's an important question to answer, though. Yes, obviously we aren't going to pave an entire desert with PV, but it's worth asking what the consequences would be because we might someday, or might do something similar.

JumpCrisscross 3y ago

> Their model: Put all of those solar panels in Northern Africa!!! This is how you develop a model. Ask if there are effects in extremis. If not, easy answer. If there are, you figure out how to measure them and then deploy that metric on the hard stuff.

qayxc 3y ago
No. This is how you generate attention. The proposed dimensions are equivalent to several centuries(!) of the global solar panel production, just to get to such coverage. It's just as ridiculous and removed from reality as the claim that tidal energy isn't sustainable and would tidally lock Earth to the Moon in 1000 years that someone published [1]. Spherical cows for the publish-or-perish paper mill that's modern academia is what it is. [1] https://cs.stanford.edu/people/zjl/pdf/tide.pdf https://cs.stanford.edu/people/zjl/pdf/tide.pdf
- nico_h 3y ago
  The time frame could probably be reduced if the demand was that high :)
- mcv 3y ago
  The example is extreme, but they also point that out in the article. It's still useful to be able to model this, and as they point out, if you use a less extreme but still extremely ambitious 5% of the Sahara, the effect becomes negligible. So in theory, solar power could affect the climate by itself, but it practice it won't. But a model that shows that if you change something in this part of the world, it's going to affect rainfall in these other parts of the world, is still very interesting and potentially useful. It could help reduce desertification.
- JumpCrisscross 3y ago
  > Spherical cows You’re using theoretical physics as your basis for criticising academia?

salynchnew 3y ago

Trying to imagine the transmission capacity required to pull off routing all of the world's electricity from a single place in North Africa. However, it seems like their model just shows a modest-ish heat island effect? It's not clear that the change in the albedo from even covering 50% of the Sahara in PV panels is much worse than the likely effects of climate change under the typical +2 degree C climate model?

defrost 3y ago
They're still barely ankle deep in analysis to be honest. Saharan sand has some not obvious from the outset effects on global climatic patterns (it's worth a look into). More than 60 percent of the 1.5 billion tons of mineral-rich dust present in the earth's atmosphere comes from the Sahara. Individual dust clouds can reach a size of 500,000 square kilometers, an area equivalent to that of Spain. As these dust particles are only airborne for a short while, it's difficult to analyze the full extent of their impact. https://www.britannica.com/video/179439/Overview-desert-sand-climate-effects-focus-Sahara https://www.britannica.com/video/179439/Overview-desert-sand... How would a significant chunk of area under PV panelling ... * survive abrasive desert conditions, * alter local wind | sand movement patterns, * affect other parts of the globe that until now had saharan sand as an input.
- gumby 3y ago
  BTW the iron content of that airborne dust turns bermuda pink, fertilizes the Amazon, and drives the destruction of atmospheric methane.
  - the_sleaze9 3y ago
    Fascinating - is there any chance you have some links about this?
    - gumby 3y ago
      A web image search of Bermuda will show you plenty of pink. There’s evens a “Bermuda pink “ color. The first link when I did a search for “Sahara fertilizes Amazon”: https://blog.education.nationalgeographic.org/2015/02/26/watch-the-sahara-fertilize-the-amazon/ https://blog.education.nationalgeographic.org/2015/02/26/wat... Where I work: https://www.bluedotchange.com/science https://www.bluedotchange.com/science

rodgerd 3y ago

> this is only an intellectual exercise. That's very charitable. Made up crises for renewable energy are demonstrably astroturfed by fossil fuel companies.

sundvor 3y ago
Headlines everywhere: "The electric car battery fires!!" Even if just theoretical ones. And the inevitable drones of people commenting on those stories how horrible EVs are. (Even though ICEs are roughly 100x more likely to catch on fire in a crash). It's hard to not see a certain % of that as pure astroturfing, indeed.
- rokkitmensch 3y ago
  EV's better be 100x difficult to light on fire, given how much of a pain they are to extinguish. I'd loved to have been a fly on the wall of the meetings where how much money to spend on reducing ignition risk was dickered out.
  - abhibeckert 3y ago
    They're not that hard to extinguish, you can just wait for them to stop burning on their own. Which is generally how car fires are also extinguished. The good news is EV fires take a long time to burn through the fuel, allowing anyone in the vehicle plenty of time to safely get out of the car. Sure, it's a bit annoying for the fire fighters who turn up 20 minutes later... but I think even they would rather arrive to find a burning car if it means the people who were in that car are safely watching from a distance.
    - rodgerd 3y ago
      > They're not that hard to extinguish, you can just wait for them to stop burning on their own. Pity about the apartment building that burns down around them, eh?

rob74 3y ago

...an intellectual exercise which is an invitation for sensationalist reporting to misquote and for climate denialists/fossil fuel lobbyists to then use as a reason for opposing solar power.