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For the same reason they're not now, and why you currently don't have batteries and are only just now considering solar panels: cost. No I don’t have solar or

For the same reason they're not now, and why you currently don't have batteries and are only just now considering solar panels: cost. No I don’t have solar or batteries because I only just purchased a property and ran out of time to do more work before winter arrived (snow). Maybe your point is I couldn’t have afforded it ten years ago regardless ? Appreciate the long response. I honestly read your post as a lot of insurmountable hurdles when realistically, as you point out. We can do the numbers and we will build the solutions.

rstuart4133 3y ago
He, like me, comes from Australia. He's quoting you figures from NSW. South Australia is another state in Australia. Unlike NSW, SA doesn't have any native deposits of coal or natural gas, so about a decade ago SA started renewable generation. It is now running at 70% renewable. That's a yearly average, not some peak figure. A 100% renewable day is pretty normal for them. That's the highest in the OECD. In 2026, they expect it to be 85% https://www.energymining.sa.gov.au/consumers/energy-grid-and-supply/our-electricity-supply-and-market https://www.energymining.sa.gov.au/consumers/energy-grid-and... I don't doubt they will get to 85%. XorNot's comments might be relevant for the remaining 15%, but I suspect he will find the sand moving underneath his feet. For example, he only talks about storage but a large portion of SA's stability comes from over provisioning. It's possible to over provision because renewables are so cheap. I suspect EV's will have an impact. Even if they don't contribute to the grid they can soak up all that over provisioning. Then there is storage he doesn't consider - like hot water systems. There are other similar loads, like water desalination and aluminium production. Many of these are switched loads. And they have been switched loads forever because matching generation to load isn't a new problem. Coal (nuclear is worse) has a comparable problem to renewables - it can't be switched off quickly. They needed somewhere to dump all that power. So among other things they made aluminium with it. Economics drove the introduction of switched loads happened when the price of power wasn't as unpredictable as it is today. Renewables have driven the wholesale electricity prices are wild in Australia. As in, on most days the electricity price will go negative, ie they pay you to draw power. At other times the price goes through the roof. We have a retail system that shields us from that of course so you get a flat(ish) price, but you can opt to go through a retailer that exposes you to the wholesale price. If you do that a battery currently has a better return than installing solar. My guess is that won't last forever, as a lot of households will install batteries, just as they have done for solar in Australia. But only if they get get in before the Hydrogen generators do. They are also eyeing off the cheap power over provisioning creates. https://www.dcceew.gov.au/energy/hydrogen https://www.dcceew.gov.au/energy/hydrogen They are looking at that as a natural gas replacement. I have no idea where we will end up. But I'm pretty sure that if you only consider solar, wind, batteries and pump storage as XorNot does, then you have a very blinkered view of what the energy future hold.
- XorNot 3y ago
  South Australia is a much smaller energy market: https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/data-nem/data-dashboard-nem https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-systems/electricity/national-e... That graph actually does go to 0, but it peaks at only 2.5GW. The grid is backstopped by two state interconnectors[1] with a third under construction. The existing two have 650MW and 220MW of capacity. The new one will have 800MW of capacity. Just those two connectors sum to 0.87GW, or 34% of the peak usage of the state. The demand low overnight is less then the capacity of those interconnectors. SA backstops it's baseload through other states (and there's nothing wrong with that, but someone, somewhere, has to have the generating capacity to provide that - if it's all batteries, then none of that helps). [1] https://www.energymining.sa.gov.au/consumers/energy-grid-and-supply/our-electricity-supply-and-market https://www.energymining.sa.gov.au/consumers/energy-grid-and...

rstuart4133 3y ago

He, like me, comes from Australia. He's quoting you figures from NSW. South Australia is another state in Australia. Unlike NSW, SA doesn't have any native deposits of coal or natural gas, so about a decade ago SA started renewable generation. It is now running at 70% renewable. That's a yearly average, not some peak figure. A 100% renewable day is pretty normal for them. That's the highest in the OECD. In 2026, they expect it to be 85% https://www.energymining.sa.gov.au/consumers/energy-grid-and-supply/our-electricity-supply-and-market https://www.energymining.sa.gov.au/consumers/energy-grid-and... I don't doubt they will get to 85%. XorNot's comments might be relevant for the remaining 15%, but I suspect he will find the sand moving underneath his feet. For example, he only talks about storage but a large portion of SA's stability comes from over provisioning. It's possible to over provision because renewables are so cheap. I suspect EV's will have an impact. Even if they don't contribute to the grid they can soak up all that over provisioning. Then there is storage he doesn't consider - like hot water systems. There are other similar loads, like water desalination and aluminium production. Many of these are switched loads. And they have been switched loads forever because matching generation to load isn't a new problem. Coal (nuclear is worse) has a comparable problem to renewables - it can't be switched off quickly. They needed somewhere to dump all that power. So among other things they made aluminium with it. Economics drove the introduction of switched loads happened when the price of power wasn't as unpredictable as it is today. Renewables have driven the wholesale electricity prices are wild in Australia. As in, on most days the electricity price will go negative, ie they pay you to draw power. At other times the price goes through the roof. We have a retail system that shields us from that of course so you get a flat(ish) price, but you can opt to go through a retailer that exposes you to the wholesale price. If you do that a battery currently has a better return than installing solar. My guess is that won't last forever, as a lot of households will install batteries, just as they have done for solar in Australia. But only if they get get in before the Hydrogen generators do. They are also eyeing off the cheap power over provisioning creates. https://www.dcceew.gov.au/energy/hydrogen https://www.dcceew.gov.au/energy/hydrogen They are looking at that as a natural gas replacement. I have no idea where we will end up. But I'm pretty sure that if you only consider solar, wind, batteries and pump storage as XorNot does, then you have a very blinkered view of what the energy future hold.

XorNot 3y ago
South Australia is a much smaller energy market: https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/data-nem/data-dashboard-nem https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-systems/electricity/national-e... That graph actually does go to 0, but it peaks at only 2.5GW. The grid is backstopped by two state interconnectors[1] with a third under construction. The existing two have 650MW and 220MW of capacity. The new one will have 800MW of capacity. Just those two connectors sum to 0.87GW, or 34% of the peak usage of the state. The demand low overnight is less then the capacity of those interconnectors. SA backstops it's baseload through other states (and there's nothing wrong with that, but someone, somewhere, has to have the generating capacity to provide that - if it's all batteries, then none of that helps). [1] https://www.energymining.sa.gov.au/consumers/energy-grid-and-supply/our-electricity-supply-and-market https://www.energymining.sa.gov.au/consumers/energy-grid-and...