3 ms·

I truly do not mean this in a snarky way - who is projecting that layoffs are projected to drop and hiring is expected to pick up around July/August?

aaomidi 3y ago
The fact that feds have signaled interest rates are going to drop this year.
sn9 3y ago
Interviewing.io compared public data to their internal data and make a compelling argument for hiring to pick up in Q2 [0], though I don't know if the recent spate of 2024 layoffs change this calculus. [0] https://interviewing.io/blog/when-is-hiring-coming-back-predictions-for-2024 https://interviewing.io/blog/when-is-hiring-coming-back-pred...
- katakan 3y ago
  Jan layoffs are "normal" (cant lay off people in holidays and new financial planning for new year) and tech isnt particularly affected (city group laid off 20k people, mostly finance), whereas most tech layoffs were in the hundreds by company and were in Companies who didnt make a profit (Twitch and Unity after their controversy) So i believe that things are getting better as data showed December '23 being the best month of 23 for tech job growth.
espe 3y ago
the "perfectly rational markets" expect the central banks to lower interest rates. which actually assumes that something economically worse happens in the meantime because as it is now, the fed is _not_ lowering.
- katakan 3y ago
  core CPI is dropping and most of the growth in December was real-state (which is on a downward trend) Some consumer prices deflated last month Wider economy job data is not as hot (december was 40k higher than expected but 70k jobs were erased from octo and november payroll so its cooling) while the fed may not cut in march i think its likely they will cut at least once or twice in '24
  - espe 3y ago
    yes that sounds rational. central bankers are humans with a target on their back though.

3 ms·

I truly do not mean this in a snarky way - who is projecting that layoffs are projected to drop and hiring is expected to pick up around July/August?

by pgwhalen 3y ago

aaomidi 3y ago
The fact that feds have signaled interest rates are going to drop this year.
sn9 3y ago
Interviewing.io compared public data to their internal data and make a compelling argument for hiring to pick up in Q2 [0], though I don't know if the recent spate of 2024 layoffs change this calculus. [0] https://interviewing.io/blog/when-is-hiring-coming-back-predictions-for-2024 https://interviewing.io/blog/when-is-hiring-coming-back-pred...
- katakan 3y ago
  Jan layoffs are "normal" (cant lay off people in holidays and new financial planning for new year) and tech isnt particularly affected (city group laid off 20k people, mostly finance), whereas most tech layoffs were in the hundreds by company and were in Companies who didnt make a profit (Twitch and Unity after their controversy) So i believe that things are getting better as data showed December '23 being the best month of 23 for tech job growth.
espe 3y ago
the "perfectly rational markets" expect the central banks to lower interest rates. which actually assumes that something economically worse happens in the meantime because as it is now, the fed is _not_ lowering.
- katakan 3y ago
  core CPI is dropping and most of the growth in December was real-state (which is on a downward trend) Some consumer prices deflated last month Wider economy job data is not as hot (december was 40k higher than expected but 70k jobs were erased from octo and november payroll so its cooling) while the fed may not cut in march i think its likely they will cut at least once or twice in '24
  - espe 3y ago
    yes that sounds rational. central bankers are humans with a target on their back though.