4 ms·

The ski season has so far been miserable in terms of snow pack. Last year was a positive fluke, with high snowfall early in the season. Some resorts are seeing

by ipnon 3y ago

The ski season has so far been miserable in terms of snow pack. Last year was a positive fluke, with high snowfall early in the season. Some resorts are seeing half as much snow as last year.

dylan604 3y ago
Stating this season is half of what last season was immediately after stating that last season was a fluke doesn't help in comparing what the normal situation is like. The season immediately after a very unusual high amount would naturally be much lower. Comparing to outliers feels like someone trying to make a dishonest point
- stavros 3y ago
  > The season immediately after a very unusual high amount would naturally be much lower. Much lower than the unusually high amount, not much lower than average, to clarify.
  - dylan604 3y ago
    Interesting how clarifying can make a difference. In California, the anomaly was having a much higher snow than the preceding years. That's what/where my brain jumped to for reference. What region are you referring?
    - stavros 3y ago
      I'm not sure what the parent was referring to, I'm just clarifying how regression to the mean works, ie just because something was higher than average one year, doesn't mean you can expect it to be lower than average the next year (you can always expect it to be average).
nixass 3y ago
Miserable where? North hemisphere is fairly vast and there has been plenty of snow "here"
- Jensson 3y ago
  Global warming is small, you mostly notice a difference in how many days the snow stays. So in northern hemisphere the snow might be gone a couple of weeks earlier now than a century ago, but it will of course still snow just as much as before during the winter. But that also means that for places where the snow barely stayed before now you will often not see snow at all.
- ski-free 3y ago
  I'm based in "snow country" which is Northern East Honshu to Hokkaido, Japan. We've had the strangest season. Later November seemed like we were in for a great season, we had snow on the ground, and it was great, early december mild temps and a bit more snow, then it decided to turn into spring and rain (practically unheard of), lower altitudes felt other worldly for this time of year. Nearly all the snow melted, the lower part of the resort couldn't open and resort almost had to close. It did temporarily...in freaking December? It was a terrifying blow to the local economy. I don't rely on tourism for my money but my friends do and they were freaked right out. It was miserable. Note that the place I'm describing would usually see +10 meters of snow fall a winter and rain was unheard of. Consistent snow fall was only to be expected. Not this year. Lately we've been smashed by a few blizzards (thank god), we've accumulated a few meters in a week, the snow has been good but again this isn't really normal for around here. It's half way through January. What was normal until about 10 years ago was 20-40cms a night from late November, light winds and great snow conditions, averaging about -3+3c at about 500m AMSL. Today it's -5 and tomorrow it's forecast +7c during the day with some light rain for about 4 days. Do you see how that's going to impact the snow pack? Granted it' set to cool off again next week and snow again but none of this is preferable for around here. This place relies on snow for tourism, culture, and farming. The longer we let the climate emergency go without drastic action, the heavier the economic, social and ecological impacts will be. We'll all be affected. Climate Change Could Cut World Economy by $23 Trillion in 2050, Insurance Giant Warns: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/22/climate/climate-change-economy.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/22/climate/climate-change-ec...
- ChatGTP 3y ago
  You didn't even open the paper did you?
stillbourne 3y ago
El Nino has a lot to do with snow pack. I don't know where you are at but from the Vail Basin to Keystone that usually means less snow. Anecdotally of course, that is just my own experience over the last 30 years of skiing here in CO.
- ski-free 3y ago
  But it still gets warmer than it did 30 years ago, and the little snow you get in those years doesn't go as far as it used too.

by ipnon 3y ago

The ski season has so far been miserable in terms of snow pack. Last year was a positive fluke, with high snowfall early in the season. Some resorts are seeing half as much snow as last year.

dylan604 3y ago

Stating this season is half of what last season was immediately after stating that last season was a fluke doesn't help in comparing what the normal situation is like. The season immediately after a very unusual high amount would naturally be much lower. Comparing to outliers feels like someone trying to make a dishonest point

stavros 3y ago
> The season immediately after a very unusual high amount would naturally be much lower. Much lower than the unusually high amount, not much lower than average, to clarify.
- dylan604 3y ago
  Interesting how clarifying can make a difference. In California, the anomaly was having a much higher snow than the preceding years. That's what/where my brain jumped to for reference. What region are you referring?
  - stavros 3y ago
    I'm not sure what the parent was referring to, I'm just clarifying how regression to the mean works, ie just because something was higher than average one year, doesn't mean you can expect it to be lower than average the next year (you can always expect it to be average).

nixass 3y ago

Miserable where? North hemisphere is fairly vast and there has been plenty of snow "here"

Jensson 3y ago
Global warming is small, you mostly notice a difference in how many days the snow stays. So in northern hemisphere the snow might be gone a couple of weeks earlier now than a century ago, but it will of course still snow just as much as before during the winter. But that also means that for places where the snow barely stayed before now you will often not see snow at all.
ski-free 3y ago
I'm based in "snow country" which is Northern East Honshu to Hokkaido, Japan. We've had the strangest season. Later November seemed like we were in for a great season, we had snow on the ground, and it was great, early december mild temps and a bit more snow, then it decided to turn into spring and rain (practically unheard of), lower altitudes felt other worldly for this time of year. Nearly all the snow melted, the lower part of the resort couldn't open and resort almost had to close. It did temporarily...in freaking December? It was a terrifying blow to the local economy. I don't rely on tourism for my money but my friends do and they were freaked right out. It was miserable. Note that the place I'm describing would usually see +10 meters of snow fall a winter and rain was unheard of. Consistent snow fall was only to be expected. Not this year. Lately we've been smashed by a few blizzards (thank god), we've accumulated a few meters in a week, the snow has been good but again this isn't really normal for around here. It's half way through January. What was normal until about 10 years ago was 20-40cms a night from late November, light winds and great snow conditions, averaging about -3+3c at about 500m AMSL. Today it's -5 and tomorrow it's forecast +7c during the day with some light rain for about 4 days. Do you see how that's going to impact the snow pack? Granted it' set to cool off again next week and snow again but none of this is preferable for around here. This place relies on snow for tourism, culture, and farming. The longer we let the climate emergency go without drastic action, the heavier the economic, social and ecological impacts will be. We'll all be affected. Climate Change Could Cut World Economy by $23 Trillion in 2050, Insurance Giant Warns: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/22/climate/climate-change-economy.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/22/climate/climate-change-ec...
ChatGTP 3y ago
You didn't even open the paper did you?

stillbourne 3y ago

El Nino has a lot to do with snow pack. I don't know where you are at but from the Vail Basin to Keystone that usually means less snow. Anecdotally of course, that is just my own experience over the last 30 years of skiing here in CO.

ski-free 3y ago
But it still gets warmer than it did 30 years ago, and the little snow you get in those years doesn't go as far as it used too.