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This has nothing to do with AI. AI can't replace a decent newgrad. It literally can't find a React import and cannot be relied on for anything without a human d

This has nothing to do with AI. AI can't replace a decent newgrad. It literally can't find a React import and cannot be relied on for anything without a human double checking it, which takes as long as writing it yourself, when it comes to line-of-business applications. The only people espousing AI magic are those who used it for "lol generate me an HTML/JavaScript book about AI that has pagination" or "lol build me a linked list" or serious researchers in traditional AI areas. This has everything to do with COVID over-hiring and a ton of people coasting because they are used to doing nothing from when everyone was desperate for devs.

Dr_Birdbrain 3y ago
This is my reaction exactly—i can’t believe anybody is replacing humans with AI, given the current state of development of AI.
- dukeyukey 3y ago
  Not tech, but AI is absolutely replacing people, just not wholly. To take an example, a friend of mine is releasing a small book of D&D one-shots she wrote. She was prepared to pay someone to make some art, but found that between AI and some editing skills, she got it close enough that she doesn't need to hire anyone. It's small scale of course, but that's money no longer going towards artists and instead to AI companies.
  - DennisP 3y ago
    Also that's money mostly staying in your friend's pocket, since AI is a lot cheaper.
ttul 3y ago
Indeed. This is the hangover from the era of cheap money and private equity gone wild. It’s a healthy adjustment for the industry that puts great people back in circulation, to be picked up by healthier companies that didn’t blow their brains out on cheap capital. It also frees people up to start new companies because suddenly just working for FAANG doesn’t make you rich anymore. When I looked for people a year ago, the market was still tight and frankly things seemed hopeless. We struggled along with an undersized team. I now have really good people walking up unsolicited. That hasn’t happened for many years. It’s a welcome change.
mrshadowgoose 3y ago
> AI can't replace a decent newgrad. It literally can't find a React import and cannot be relied on for anything without a human double checking it, which takes as long as writing it yourself, when it comes to line-of-business applications. This is little-picture, short-sighted thinking. A one-for-one replacement of a specific kind of employee is not a requirement to statistically displace employees across a workforce. AI tooling can augment the productivity of existing employees, which results in a lessened need for human labour. And you're making the baseless assumption that we have achieved the pinnacle of AI development. This problem will only get worse as AI tooling improves.
- enriquec 3y ago
  I would say this is archaic, luddite and unambitious thinking. Did the need for labor decrease after the lightbulb, electricity, or the telegraph? Or did Quality of life go up while projects expanded in scope and we accomplished greater things with more efficiency?
  - mrshadowgoose 3y ago
    > Did the need for labor decrease after the lightbulb, electricity, or the telegraph? Or did Quality of life go up while projects expanded in scope and we accomplished greater things with more efficiency? It absolutely did...and you literally said it yourself. What is "more efficiency" except a reduced need for labour for a fixed unit of "productivity"?
- throw1234651234 3y ago
  Let me be more specific - as an architect working on a senior dev task today, it's faster for me to type out the code / figure things out then prompt ChatGPT to do the problem. I actually have it pulled up all day in vain attempts to use it. So far I had it remove access modifiers and {get; set;} from a property list so I could copy it into a UML diagram. In reality, it would have been faster if I just remembered the shortcut.
mupuff1234 3y ago
I wouldn't be surprised if is partly due to AI, but not because of the tech itself, but because of the additional compensation for talent and infrastructure spending it currently brings.
mark_l_watson 3y ago
I have a slightly different opinion. I agree that we humans have a creative spark that drives research, true art, etc. However, I am 90% seeing AI tools as a means to let me create more, and faster. I have co-pilot integrated with my Emacs and VSCode setups, and it is hard to imagine turning back time and not having co-pilot available. Yesterday I wanted a snappy title for a new open source project (inspired by last Friday’s All-In podcast) so I wrote up a three paragraph description and asked mixtral-8-7B (running locally on my Mac) as well as Anthropic’s Claude 2 and ChatGPT for project name suggestions. Lots of good ideas, I chose my favorite. Last February I was writing a book on ‘safe AI’ and after I wrote each chapter, I had ChatGPT read it and asked for additional topics I may have neglected. It was also good for generating end of chapter summaries that I re-worded to fit my style. For the last ten years I have tried to be on a ‘digital diet’ - limiting time on digital devices except for high productivity sprints. This includes limiting time on HN and X. It feels good to use AI tools to get more done quickly so I have more time to cook elaborate meals for my family, hike and hang out with my friends, and read.
- loosetypes 3y ago
  Any recommendation for copilot integration with Emacs?
  - mark_l_watson 3y ago
    Here is my setup: https://github.com/mark-watson/emacs_setup https://github.com/mark-watson/emacs_setup You can 100% find better setups than mine. Once I get things working, I don’t change until something new is much better.
mattbrewsbytes 3y ago
Yes, during the pandemic staffing levels surged so even these 15% cuts aren’t even getting close to pre-pandemic numbers. People also forget that even though a company may be classified as Tech, they hire a lot of people in different professions than software to keep the business going - sales, accounting, HR, marketing, etc. Tech is also only like 2% of jobs in the US so layoffs in the tech sector, especially advertising tech (meta, google), aren’t indicative of cross-industry layoffs. I could see after some time that custom AI apps/prompts could supplant traditional search that has been around for 25 years. SEO will become irrelevant when custom AI tools exist that narrow the focus and allow follow-up questions and context.
stevenjgarner 3y ago
You really think that is a realistic position given products like replit.com entering the market?

Dr_Birdbrain 3y ago

This is my reaction exactly—i can’t believe anybody is replacing humans with AI, given the current state of development of AI.

dukeyukey 3y ago
Not tech, but AI is absolutely replacing people, just not wholly. To take an example, a friend of mine is releasing a small book of D&D one-shots she wrote. She was prepared to pay someone to make some art, but found that between AI and some editing skills, she got it close enough that she doesn't need to hire anyone. It's small scale of course, but that's money no longer going towards artists and instead to AI companies.
- DennisP 3y ago
  Also that's money mostly staying in your friend's pocket, since AI is a lot cheaper.

ttul 3y ago

Indeed. This is the hangover from the era of cheap money and private equity gone wild. It’s a healthy adjustment for the industry that puts great people back in circulation, to be picked up by healthier companies that didn’t blow their brains out on cheap capital. It also frees people up to start new companies because suddenly just working for FAANG doesn’t make you rich anymore. When I looked for people a year ago, the market was still tight and frankly things seemed hopeless. We struggled along with an undersized team. I now have really good people walking up unsolicited. That hasn’t happened for many years. It’s a welcome change.

mrshadowgoose 3y ago

> AI can't replace a decent newgrad. It literally can't find a React import and cannot be relied on for anything without a human double checking it, which takes as long as writing it yourself, when it comes to line-of-business applications. This is little-picture, short-sighted thinking. A one-for-one replacement of a specific kind of employee is not a requirement to statistically displace employees across a workforce. AI tooling can augment the productivity of existing employees, which results in a lessened need for human labour. And you're making the baseless assumption that we have achieved the pinnacle of AI development. This problem will only get worse as AI tooling improves.

enriquec 3y ago
I would say this is archaic, luddite and unambitious thinking. Did the need for labor decrease after the lightbulb, electricity, or the telegraph? Or did Quality of life go up while projects expanded in scope and we accomplished greater things with more efficiency?
- mrshadowgoose 3y ago
  > Did the need for labor decrease after the lightbulb, electricity, or the telegraph? Or did Quality of life go up while projects expanded in scope and we accomplished greater things with more efficiency? It absolutely did...and you literally said it yourself. What is "more efficiency" except a reduced need for labour for a fixed unit of "productivity"?
throw1234651234 3y ago
Let me be more specific - as an architect working on a senior dev task today, it's faster for me to type out the code / figure things out then prompt ChatGPT to do the problem. I actually have it pulled up all day in vain attempts to use it. So far I had it remove access modifiers and {get; set;} from a property list so I could copy it into a UML diagram. In reality, it would have been faster if I just remembered the shortcut.

mupuff1234 3y ago

I wouldn't be surprised if is partly due to AI, but not because of the tech itself, but because of the additional compensation for talent and infrastructure spending it currently brings.

mark_l_watson 3y ago

I have a slightly different opinion. I agree that we humans have a creative spark that drives research, true art, etc. However, I am 90% seeing AI tools as a means to let me create more, and faster. I have co-pilot integrated with my Emacs and VSCode setups, and it is hard to imagine turning back time and not having co-pilot available. Yesterday I wanted a snappy title for a new open source project (inspired by last Friday’s All-In podcast) so I wrote up a three paragraph description and asked mixtral-8-7B (running locally on my Mac) as well as Anthropic’s Claude 2 and ChatGPT for project name suggestions. Lots of good ideas, I chose my favorite. Last February I was writing a book on ‘safe AI’ and after I wrote each chapter, I had ChatGPT read it and asked for additional topics I may have neglected. It was also good for generating end of chapter summaries that I re-worded to fit my style. For the last ten years I have tried to be on a ‘digital diet’ - limiting time on digital devices except for high productivity sprints. This includes limiting time on HN and X. It feels good to use AI tools to get more done quickly so I have more time to cook elaborate meals for my family, hike and hang out with my friends, and read.

loosetypes 3y ago
Any recommendation for copilot integration with Emacs?
- mark_l_watson 3y ago
  Here is my setup: https://github.com/mark-watson/emacs_setup https://github.com/mark-watson/emacs_setup You can 100% find better setups than mine. Once I get things working, I don’t change until something new is much better.

mattbrewsbytes 3y ago

Yes, during the pandemic staffing levels surged so even these 15% cuts aren’t even getting close to pre-pandemic numbers. People also forget that even though a company may be classified as Tech, they hire a lot of people in different professions than software to keep the business going - sales, accounting, HR, marketing, etc. Tech is also only like 2% of jobs in the US so layoffs in the tech sector, especially advertising tech (meta, google), aren’t indicative of cross-industry layoffs. I could see after some time that custom AI apps/prompts could supplant traditional search that has been around for 25 years. SEO will become irrelevant when custom AI tools exist that narrow the focus and allow follow-up questions and context.

stevenjgarner 3y ago

You really think that is a realistic position given products like replit.com entering the market?