6 ms·

AI to hit almost 40% of jobs worldwide

20 points by jzombie 3y ago

atrlal 3y ago
[flagged]
halfmatthalfcat 3y ago
For those just reacting to the headline, this article is about leveraging AI in current roles and its effects on employment equality, not job losses due to AI.
- jzombie 3y ago
  This article does not mention leveraging AI at all, to my knowledge.
vintermann 3y ago
If we just asked GPT4 this, and it said, "Oh, how many jobs will be affected? About 40% is my estimate" - would we have any more reason to be confident in that than in IMF's estimate?
- dzink 3y ago
  Scary but not scary enough to make you look like a doomsday-er.
  - vintermann 3y ago
    I'm not trying to look like a doomsayer or not, I just say that I doubt there's any actually useful information in IMF's statement at all. It's not something you can act on. It's not something you can even check in retrospect if will be true. It really is so much like just words statistically generated to placate.
phito 3y ago
What's the point of these statistics without even mentioning the date of their predictions? You could write an article stating that 100% of jobs will be hit, because eventually they will be, but maybe in 200 years?
matsemann 3y ago
So a 3-day workweek for everyone, right? Right..?
- monkeydust 3y ago
  Well Keynes was predicting the possibility of 15 hour weeks back in 1930 thanks to technological advancements and a preference for leisure over labour. I recently re-read his paper "Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren" - https://www.econ.yale.edu/smith/econ116a/keynes1.pdf https://www.econ.yale.edu/smith/econ116a/keynes1.pdf
  - AlanSE 3y ago
    Site won't connect with https, this works for me. http://www.econ.yale.edu/smith/econ116a/keynes1.pdf http://www.econ.yale.edu/smith/econ116a/keynes1.pdf
  - gitfan86 3y ago
    He was right, MANY people put in way less than 40 hours of what he would have considered actual work. Scrum Masters, DEI Officers, Management Consultants are not real jobs for the most part. They are mostly in meetings saying vague buzzwords.
- soco 3y ago
  Of course, and with a 60% pay, because why should be the employee the one who gonna reap em profits.
  - Folcon 3y ago
    Surely we should expect that to decimate the B2C industry in general? Companies will be chasing fewer "dollars" after all...
  - meiraleal 3y ago
    So then we can get 2 or 3 jobs at once
alecco 3y ago
dupe https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38997636 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38997636
jamghee 3y ago
I get frustrated by articles like this that use words like "hit" or "impact" or "affect." I've learned nothing. What will be the effect?
- mglz 3y ago
  > What will be the effect? You clicked :)
theusus 3y ago
Will ai solve problems for the regular human or not?
consumer451 3y ago
It's been a while since I've heard anyone talk about UBI, where as a couple years ago the topic was difficult to avoid. Is the idea dead?
- IOT_Apprentice 3y ago
  Some believe that corporations will just raise prices to eliminate any difference. See the current situation with regards to food & grocery costs skyrocketing here in the USA. See corporations raising prices under cover of “inflation“ with zero consequences due to toxic capitalism.
wegfawefgawefg 3y ago
If you are reading this and getting upset at the lack of information, remember this is just CNBC. So its more like an introduction to the concept of AI job loss for the target readership. (Which probably isnt as technical or complexity savvy as the average hacker newser) Granted, I would not have considered this worthy of posting.
arp242 3y ago
Dupe: AI to hit 40% of jobs and worsen inequality, IMF says - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38997636 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38997636 - Jan 2024 (102 comments)
spaceman_2020 3y ago
I’ve been in tech for nearly 20 years and I’ve immersed myself into almost all the hyped up stuff, from 3D printing back in the day to AR/VR to crypto to AI. AI is the only thing that feels like the real thing. It’s already being used in my work extensively, from coding to content generation. If you’ve found yourself underwhelmed by AI, you’re either not using the latest and greatest stuff, or your problems are too complex for AI to solve - for now.
- willsmith72 3y ago
  You're exactly right, and I still find myself shocked every week by how little people are making use of it. I think part of the reason is the same as another phenomenon I've seen before. Most people don't want to automate their work. In fact, they don't even want to change their behaviour at all. They have tasks which they are 100% confident and comfortable in, and completing them gives them satisfaction. As long as they can do that and keep their job, they will continue in that manner. As a business owner, it makes me want to pull my hair out. There is so damn much wasted time and energy in this world. But I also can't blame them. They're happy, their boss is happy, the company is happy (for now).
  - gitfan86 3y ago
    Yes, I've been surprised by this as well. I expected that an older person who had done the same job for 10 years would be like this. But I'm seeing tech oriented people not want to use it.
    - aptenoforst 3y ago
      This whole conversation is either roleplay or made by AI
      - spaceman_2020 3y ago
        yeah man, there are real people roleplaying to get you to sign up for a $20/month openAI subscription. You really caught onto us.
dzink 3y ago
When white collar work that can be made remote doesn't spread the wealth because AI makes it obsolete, regulation does. Wealthy countries tend to ban or limit activities at ever-smaller thresholds of risk and that gives lucrative sources of income to less-wealthy and restrictive countries. Recycling, manufacturing, training on privacy sensitive-corpses of data (healthcare data for diagnostics for example, or as we recently saw IP law attacks on Generative AI), fintech, moderation of social media content, etc. The problem with those is that over time the money becomes concentrated on a few major firms instead of spreading around. That said, with AI, now anyone who has been doing major digital work in non-major markets has an ability to make creative or entrepreneurial projects at a blazing fast speed now. If there are consistent distribution channel inroads into wealthy markets, those entrepreneurs could make a lot. TikTok, Instagram, YouTube, SEO, you name it will get even more competitive.
- sottol 3y ago
  And in the end the big companies remain the gatekeepers and AI-providers will pull an Uber/Lyft and slowly ratchet up the price of their AI products and hire their profit-maximizing PhDs until they've squeezed every little bit of money out of the market. The net result is probably the same, concentration at the big companies. Maybe a couple people selling "shovels" and "how I made $5k with 2h of work last week" will get rich along the way though.

20 points by jzombie 3y ago

[flagged]

For those just reacting to the headline, this article is about leveraging AI in current roles and its effects on employment equality, not job losses due to AI.

jzombie 3y ago
This article does not mention leveraging AI at all, to my knowledge.

vintermann 3y ago

If we just asked GPT4 this, and it said, "Oh, how many jobs will be affected? About 40% is my estimate" - would we have any more reason to be confident in that than in IMF's estimate?

dzink 3y ago
Scary but not scary enough to make you look like a doomsday-er.
- vintermann 3y ago
  I'm not trying to look like a doomsayer or not, I just say that I doubt there's any actually useful information in IMF's statement at all. It's not something you can act on. It's not something you can even check in retrospect if will be true. It really is so much like just words statistically generated to placate.

phito 3y ago

What's the point of these statistics without even mentioning the date of their predictions? You could write an article stating that 100% of jobs will be hit, because eventually they will be, but maybe in 200 years?

matsemann 3y ago

So a 3-day workweek for everyone, right? Right..?

monkeydust 3y ago
Well Keynes was predicting the possibility of 15 hour weeks back in 1930 thanks to technological advancements and a preference for leisure over labour. I recently re-read his paper "Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren" - https://www.econ.yale.edu/smith/econ116a/keynes1.pdf https://www.econ.yale.edu/smith/econ116a/keynes1.pdf
- AlanSE 3y ago
  Site won't connect with https, this works for me. http://www.econ.yale.edu/smith/econ116a/keynes1.pdf http://www.econ.yale.edu/smith/econ116a/keynes1.pdf
- gitfan86 3y ago
  He was right, MANY people put in way less than 40 hours of what he would have considered actual work. Scrum Masters, DEI Officers, Management Consultants are not real jobs for the most part. They are mostly in meetings saying vague buzzwords.
soco 3y ago
Of course, and with a 60% pay, because why should be the employee the one who gonna reap em profits.
- Folcon 3y ago
  Surely we should expect that to decimate the B2C industry in general? Companies will be chasing fewer "dollars" after all...
- meiraleal 3y ago
  So then we can get 2 or 3 jobs at once

alecco 3y ago

dupe https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38997636 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38997636

jamghee 3y ago

I get frustrated by articles like this that use words like "hit" or "impact" or "affect." I've learned nothing. What will be the effect?

mglz 3y ago
> What will be the effect? You clicked :)

theusus 3y ago

Will ai solve problems for the regular human or not?

consumer451 3y ago

It's been a while since I've heard anyone talk about UBI, where as a couple years ago the topic was difficult to avoid. Is the idea dead?

IOT_Apprentice 3y ago
Some believe that corporations will just raise prices to eliminate any difference. See the current situation with regards to food & grocery costs skyrocketing here in the USA. See corporations raising prices under cover of “inflation“ with zero consequences due to toxic capitalism.

wegfawefgawefg 3y ago

If you are reading this and getting upset at the lack of information, remember this is just CNBC. So its more like an introduction to the concept of AI job loss for the target readership. (Which probably isnt as technical or complexity savvy as the average hacker newser) Granted, I would not have considered this worthy of posting.

arp242 3y ago

Dupe: AI to hit 40% of jobs and worsen inequality, IMF says - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38997636 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38997636 - Jan 2024 (102 comments)

spaceman_2020 3y ago

I’ve been in tech for nearly 20 years and I’ve immersed myself into almost all the hyped up stuff, from 3D printing back in the day to AR/VR to crypto to AI. AI is the only thing that feels like the real thing. It’s already being used in my work extensively, from coding to content generation. If you’ve found yourself underwhelmed by AI, you’re either not using the latest and greatest stuff, or your problems are too complex for AI to solve - for now.

willsmith72 3y ago
You're exactly right, and I still find myself shocked every week by how little people are making use of it. I think part of the reason is the same as another phenomenon I've seen before. Most people don't want to automate their work. In fact, they don't even want to change their behaviour at all. They have tasks which they are 100% confident and comfortable in, and completing them gives them satisfaction. As long as they can do that and keep their job, they will continue in that manner. As a business owner, it makes me want to pull my hair out. There is so damn much wasted time and energy in this world. But I also can't blame them. They're happy, their boss is happy, the company is happy (for now).
- gitfan86 3y ago
  Yes, I've been surprised by this as well. I expected that an older person who had done the same job for 10 years would be like this. But I'm seeing tech oriented people not want to use it.
  - aptenoforst 3y ago
    This whole conversation is either roleplay or made by AI
    - spaceman_2020 3y ago
      yeah man, there are real people roleplaying to get you to sign up for a $20/month openAI subscription. You really caught onto us.

dzink 3y ago

When white collar work that can be made remote doesn't spread the wealth because AI makes it obsolete, regulation does. Wealthy countries tend to ban or limit activities at ever-smaller thresholds of risk and that gives lucrative sources of income to less-wealthy and restrictive countries. Recycling, manufacturing, training on privacy sensitive-corpses of data (healthcare data for diagnostics for example, or as we recently saw IP law attacks on Generative AI), fintech, moderation of social media content, etc. The problem with those is that over time the money becomes concentrated on a few major firms instead of spreading around. That said, with AI, now anyone who has been doing major digital work in non-major markets has an ability to make creative or entrepreneurial projects at a blazing fast speed now. If there are consistent distribution channel inroads into wealthy markets, those entrepreneurs could make a lot. TikTok, Instagram, YouTube, SEO, you name it will get even more competitive.

sottol 3y ago
And in the end the big companies remain the gatekeepers and AI-providers will pull an Uber/Lyft and slowly ratchet up the price of their AI products and hire their profit-maximizing PhDs until they've squeezed every little bit of money out of the market. The net result is probably the same, concentration at the big companies. Maybe a couple people selling "shovels" and "how I made $5k with 2h of work last week" will get rich along the way though.