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As a person who expected a 30-50% decline in Russian GDP when the sanctions were first announced, I’ve been very surprised at how resilient the Russian economy

As a person who expected a 30-50% decline in Russian GDP when the sanctions were first announced, I’ve been very surprised at how resilient the Russian economy has been. I’d love to read an analysis about why sanctions were so effective at harming the economies of countries like Venezuela & North Korea but so much weaker against Russia.

biotopia 3y ago
Here's a very good in depth article https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/91235 https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/91235. "They essentially put the Russian economy into an artificial coma by raising the key rate to 20 percent. Additionally, they imposed temporary capital controls, compelled exporters to sell export revenues, and prohibited non-residents from leaving Russian markets....This combination of factors allowed the Russian economy to sustain itself in 2023 and gave time to Putin, the government, and Russian businesses to adjust their strategies, turning to new markets, mostly China and India." However, it does look like Russia's strategy of supporting economy on strong oil sales will falter in 2024 and 2025. "Indian purchases of Russian crude have fallen to an 11-month low as the price tag on the discounted oil rises...Sources at the Indian refineries told Reuters that the country is looking to Saudi oil partly because of problems with payments for Russian light sweet crude Sokol." https://www.newsweek.com/russia-oil-india-war-saudi-1860480 https://www.newsweek.com/russia-oil-india-war-saudi-1860480
umeshunni 3y ago
> why sanctions were so effective at harming the economies of countries like Venezuela & North Korea but so much weaker against Russia. Not any in depth analysis, but I'm guessing: 1. Size of the economy (Russian economy is 3x Venezuela) 2. Diversity of the economy (Venezuela is primarily oil, Russia has a diverse industrial base, defence, agriculture etc) 3. Ties and trade with countries not participating in the sanctions (Russia trades with China, India and ME countries).

biotopia 3y ago

Here's a very good in depth article https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/91235 https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/91235. "They essentially put the Russian economy into an artificial coma by raising the key rate to 20 percent. Additionally, they imposed temporary capital controls, compelled exporters to sell export revenues, and prohibited non-residents from leaving Russian markets....This combination of factors allowed the Russian economy to sustain itself in 2023 and gave time to Putin, the government, and Russian businesses to adjust their strategies, turning to new markets, mostly China and India." However, it does look like Russia's strategy of supporting economy on strong oil sales will falter in 2024 and 2025. "Indian purchases of Russian crude have fallen to an 11-month low as the price tag on the discounted oil rises...Sources at the Indian refineries told Reuters that the country is looking to Saudi oil partly because of problems with payments for Russian light sweet crude Sokol." https://www.newsweek.com/russia-oil-india-war-saudi-1860480 https://www.newsweek.com/russia-oil-india-war-saudi-1860480

umeshunni 3y ago

> why sanctions were so effective at harming the economies of countries like Venezuela & North Korea but so much weaker against Russia. Not any in depth analysis, but I'm guessing: 1. Size of the economy (Russian economy is 3x Venezuela) 2. Diversity of the economy (Venezuela is primarily oil, Russia has a diverse industrial base, defence, agriculture etc) 3. Ties and trade with countries not participating in the sanctions (Russia trades with China, India and ME countries).