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One thing I firmly believe - the people who will pull this off will be ones who just aren’t willing or able to see all the possible failure paths. Unreasonable

by kiratp 3y ago

One thing I firmly believe - the people who will pull this off will be ones who just aren’t willing or able to see all the possible failure paths. Unreasonable optimism is the only path to success at this scale.

actionfromafar 3y ago
These people can be found in many crazy success stories, survivor bias and all that. Can't fault them either, it worked for them...
- dehrmann 3y ago
  > survivor bias and all that Even been to the Vasa Museum?
CamperBob2 3y ago
A key flaw in the essay is that the failure modes inherent in remaining a single-planet (or even a single-system) species go unstated, and are arguably even worse: They would know that their fate was created for them by ancestors who made the choice to enter the starship, a choice they could never unmake. That might be irritating. Um, yeah, and so is the knowledge that an oncoming asteroid is about to destroy the only planet we have. In any case, the process of attacking the problems Robinson mentions will make us unimaginably stronger. Perfecting fusion power, understanding and mastering our own biomes, and learning to coexist with ourselves will hardly be a waste of time, even if we never overcome all of the showstoppers he cites. In fact, I'd agree with Robinson in one key area: humans will never make it to the stars. Somebody will, though. They won't be humans anymore, not as we are now. But their ancestors will have been. That's us.
- paulryanrogers 3y ago
  What makes you think any lifeform from Earth will ever independently live on another planet, much less one orbiting a distant star? Goldilocks conditions appear to be rare, so far as we can see. And therefore very unlikely to be reached in any organism's lifetime.
  - jevoten 3y ago
    Technological myopia bordering on outright blindness. Ever? Compare technology today to that from 2000 years ago. Now compare it with technology from 2000 years in the future. Now 10000 years. A 'generation ship' could be just a bio-lab and genetic material (possibly digitized) that is grown into life only after the destination is reached. Or after it is terraformed by other genetically altered organisms, engineered on-site by AI (or by Earth-based scientists, at the cost of a few communication round-trips). And this is just the most basic version someone from the 21st century would come up with. Edit as reply because I am "posting too fast": From TFA: We are not gods A cheap way of dismissing what is already, today, nearly working technology - artificial wombs [1], and building genomes from scratch [2]. Further, what I proposed is basically equivalent to seeds - as in literal, existing plant seeds. But we won't be able to replicate, in 10000 years of technological progress, what nature already has working? Such a claim requires showing some strong, fundamental barrier, not to have the possibility handwaved away with "we are not gods". What technological progress can't be dismissed with "we are not gods"? Landing on the moon? Splitting the atom? Heart transplants? Heavier-than-air flight? Fire? [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_womb https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_womb [2] https://www.theguardian.com/science/2010/may/20/craig-venter-synthetic-life-form https://www.theguardian.com/science/2010/may/20/craig-venter...
    - try_the_bass 3y ago
      A 'generation ship' could be just... From TFA: We are not gods, and anyone who thinks of science as a magic wand, or even as a verb, is making a mistake, a category error sometimes called scientism. Drill down a little harder on these issues, look at the evidence; use the scientific method properly. Limits to what we can do will quickly appear around you.
      - CamperBob2 3y ago
        We are not gods, and anyone who thinks of science as a magic wand, or even as a verb, is making a mistake, a category error sometimes called scientism. Drill down a little harder on these issues, look at the evidence; use the scientific method properly. Limits to what we can do will quickly appear around you. When's the last time someone making this argument turned out to be right in the long run?
layer8 3y ago
Realistically, a generation ship won’t be happening without all possible failure modes being extensively explored and addressed.

by kiratp 3y ago

actionfromafar 3y ago

These people can be found in many crazy success stories, survivor bias and all that. Can't fault them either, it worked for them...

dehrmann 3y ago
> survivor bias and all that Even been to the Vasa Museum?

CamperBob2 3y ago

A key flaw in the essay is that the failure modes inherent in remaining a single-planet (or even a single-system) species go unstated, and are arguably even worse: They would know that their fate was created for them by ancestors who made the choice to enter the starship, a choice they could never unmake. That might be irritating. Um, yeah, and so is the knowledge that an oncoming asteroid is about to destroy the only planet we have. In any case, the process of attacking the problems Robinson mentions will make us unimaginably stronger. Perfecting fusion power, understanding and mastering our own biomes, and learning to coexist with ourselves will hardly be a waste of time, even if we never overcome all of the showstoppers he cites. In fact, I'd agree with Robinson in one key area: humans will never make it to the stars. Somebody will, though. They won't be humans anymore, not as we are now. But their ancestors will have been. That's us.

paulryanrogers 3y ago
What makes you think any lifeform from Earth will ever independently live on another planet, much less one orbiting a distant star? Goldilocks conditions appear to be rare, so far as we can see. And therefore very unlikely to be reached in any organism's lifetime.
- jevoten 3y ago
  Technological myopia bordering on outright blindness. Ever? Compare technology today to that from 2000 years ago. Now compare it with technology from 2000 years in the future. Now 10000 years. A 'generation ship' could be just a bio-lab and genetic material (possibly digitized) that is grown into life only after the destination is reached. Or after it is terraformed by other genetically altered organisms, engineered on-site by AI (or by Earth-based scientists, at the cost of a few communication round-trips). And this is just the most basic version someone from the 21st century would come up with. Edit as reply because I am "posting too fast": From TFA: We are not gods A cheap way of dismissing what is already, today, nearly working technology - artificial wombs [1], and building genomes from scratch [2]. Further, what I proposed is basically equivalent to seeds - as in literal, existing plant seeds. But we won't be able to replicate, in 10000 years of technological progress, what nature already has working? Such a claim requires showing some strong, fundamental barrier, not to have the possibility handwaved away with "we are not gods". What technological progress can't be dismissed with "we are not gods"? Landing on the moon? Splitting the atom? Heart transplants? Heavier-than-air flight? Fire? [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_womb https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_womb [2] https://www.theguardian.com/science/2010/may/20/craig-venter-synthetic-life-form https://www.theguardian.com/science/2010/may/20/craig-venter...
  - try_the_bass 3y ago
    A 'generation ship' could be just... From TFA: We are not gods, and anyone who thinks of science as a magic wand, or even as a verb, is making a mistake, a category error sometimes called scientism. Drill down a little harder on these issues, look at the evidence; use the scientific method properly. Limits to what we can do will quickly appear around you.
    - CamperBob2 3y ago
      We are not gods, and anyone who thinks of science as a magic wand, or even as a verb, is making a mistake, a category error sometimes called scientism. Drill down a little harder on these issues, look at the evidence; use the scientific method properly. Limits to what we can do will quickly appear around you. When's the last time someone making this argument turned out to be right in the long run?

layer8 3y ago

Realistically, a generation ship won’t be happening without all possible failure modes being extensively explored and addressed.