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I have never read that northern Europe will become uninhabitable, I had read that it will become more like, well, southern europe

hedora 3y ago
That's been well-understood since the 1990s. Back then, it was clear from geological records that an increase of CO2 would disrupt the Atlantic currents. They had 50 year resolution for Europe, and the data showed that within fifty years of CO2 starting to tick up, most of Europe was stuck under ice (for centuries). Since then, people say that the above is weak evidence, and are generally in denial of the science. As of a year or to ago, we've been able to measure the slowing and coming stoppage of the Atlantic currents. There's over 50-50 odds that some people reading this will live to see the next Eurpoean ice age. Much of France, Germany and things farther north are likely to end up under a glacier.
nostrademons 3y ago
There's some speculation involved, and a little hyperbole. Basically, if the gulf stream shuts down, Northern Europe will basically become virtually uninhabitable - not in the sense as in "nobody can live there", but more like "the population density supported will be more like Manitoba/Saskatchewan/Alberta or Mongolia/Kazakhstan". Scandinavia is the same latitude as Greenland and the UK/Germany/Poland is the same latitude as north/central Canada, after all. If the warming influence of the gulf stream disappears, expect the ports to freeze over (similar to the Hudson Bay) and the climate to become similar. It may be counteracted somewhat by general global warming - like the Northwest Passage may open up - but at best you should still expect climate more like Vladivostok or Juneau than present-day Europe. AMOC/gulfstream shutdown is not a given, there is still scientific debate about it. But the scientific evidence is starting to pile up, along with evidence that circulation patterns are weakening right now. If you Google [amoc shutdown] you can read a quick overview.

hedora 3y ago

That's been well-understood since the 1990s. Back then, it was clear from geological records that an increase of CO2 would disrupt the Atlantic currents. They had 50 year resolution for Europe, and the data showed that within fifty years of CO2 starting to tick up, most of Europe was stuck under ice (for centuries). Since then, people say that the above is weak evidence, and are generally in denial of the science. As of a year or to ago, we've been able to measure the slowing and coming stoppage of the Atlantic currents. There's over 50-50 odds that some people reading this will live to see the next Eurpoean ice age. Much of France, Germany and things farther north are likely to end up under a glacier.

nostrademons 3y ago

There's some speculation involved, and a little hyperbole. Basically, if the gulf stream shuts down, Northern Europe will basically become virtually uninhabitable - not in the sense as in "nobody can live there", but more like "the population density supported will be more like Manitoba/Saskatchewan/Alberta or Mongolia/Kazakhstan". Scandinavia is the same latitude as Greenland and the UK/Germany/Poland is the same latitude as north/central Canada, after all. If the warming influence of the gulf stream disappears, expect the ports to freeze over (similar to the Hudson Bay) and the climate to become similar. It may be counteracted somewhat by general global warming - like the Northwest Passage may open up - but at best you should still expect climate more like Vladivostok or Juneau than present-day Europe. AMOC/gulfstream shutdown is not a given, there is still scientific debate about it. But the scientific evidence is starting to pile up, along with evidence that circulation patterns are weakening right now. If you Google [amoc shutdown] you can read a quick overview.