3 ms·

Interesting. Do you know about reports, maps, details,...

hedora 3y ago
Here's a good interactive map with a link to a peer-reviewed study. https://projects.propublica.org/climate-migration/ https://projects.propublica.org/climate-migration/ Two things to note from the infographics. In the first map, the US habitable range moves north, then west. Look at what happens to South America. (Sadly, it isn't a world map). The second to last map talks about crop yields directly. Look at the scale. They're predicting a 20% increase in yields in places like Wyoming and Montana (which are not exactly bread-basket states), and 50-92% losses in yields for California's central valley, and most of the US South. Yields in other countries might make up for it (I doubt it), but the US's agricultural yields are set to collapse.
- nostrademons 3y ago
  The Propublica map is pretty illustrative. Note that the total size of ideal US habitability doesn't change. If anything, it increases under the "extreme warming" scenario. But its shape is dramatically different. Key areas include the Dakotas, Montana, parts of the Basin & Range provinces, Modoc County in California - basically areas where virtually nobody lives now. Meanwhile densely populated parts of the American South, Texas, Florida, and the Southwest literally are becoming uninhabitable through wet bulb temperatures and sea level rise. The crop yield picture is complex too. It's not actually true that we're looking at 50-92% losses in California's central valley. We're looking at ~13-44% in the southern Central Valley, as well as the Imperial Valley (basically those areas irrigated with Colorado River water). Also looking at 6.5-15.8% increases in other regions of California like the Salinas Valley, Bay Area, far north coast, Modoc County. Central Oregon and Washington and the Great Lakes region stand to benefit as well - these are not areas with large current agricultural production. Expect upheaval. Humans don't do well when some people benefit and other people die for completely random reasons.
- Tarsul 3y ago
  i remember news from 2023 that some counties in Vermont were hid by massive flooding (in 2023) although they were in the table from your article as the ones least likely to be hit by climate disasters (but hey, the stats are from 2020, so basically outdated anyway). Meaning to say: nowhere is safe.
nostrademons 3y ago
There are a couple sites that will let you put in your address and generate a report of how vulnerable your property and your community is to climate change. https://riskfactor.com/ https://riskfactor.com/ https://climatecheck.com/ https://climatecheck.com/

Here's a good interactive map with a link to a peer-reviewed study. https://projects.propublica.org/climate-migration/ https://projects.propublica.org/climate-migration/ Two things to note from the infographics. In the first map, the US habitable range moves north, then west. Look at what happens to South America. (Sadly, it isn't a world map). The second to last map talks about crop yields directly. Look at the scale. They're predicting a 20% increase in yields in places like Wyoming and Montana (which are not exactly bread-basket states), and 50-92% losses in yields for California's central valley, and most of the US South. Yields in other countries might make up for it (I doubt it), but the US's agricultural yields are set to collapse.

nostrademons 3y ago
The Propublica map is pretty illustrative. Note that the total size of ideal US habitability doesn't change. If anything, it increases under the "extreme warming" scenario. But its shape is dramatically different. Key areas include the Dakotas, Montana, parts of the Basin & Range provinces, Modoc County in California - basically areas where virtually nobody lives now. Meanwhile densely populated parts of the American South, Texas, Florida, and the Southwest literally are becoming uninhabitable through wet bulb temperatures and sea level rise. The crop yield picture is complex too. It's not actually true that we're looking at 50-92% losses in California's central valley. We're looking at ~13-44% in the southern Central Valley, as well as the Imperial Valley (basically those areas irrigated with Colorado River water). Also looking at 6.5-15.8% increases in other regions of California like the Salinas Valley, Bay Area, far north coast, Modoc County. Central Oregon and Washington and the Great Lakes region stand to benefit as well - these are not areas with large current agricultural production. Expect upheaval. Humans don't do well when some people benefit and other people die for completely random reasons.
Tarsul 3y ago
i remember news from 2023 that some counties in Vermont were hid by massive flooding (in 2023) although they were in the table from your article as the ones least likely to be hit by climate disasters (but hey, the stats are from 2020, so basically outdated anyway). Meaning to say: nowhere is safe.

nostrademons 3y ago

There are a couple sites that will let you put in your address and generate a report of how vulnerable your property and your community is to climate change. https://riskfactor.com/ https://riskfactor.com/ https://climatecheck.com/ https://climatecheck.com/