6 ms·

Test Can Tell How Likely a Young Driver Is to Crash

17 points by fortran77 3y ago

fortran77 3y ago
They should give this test to old drivers, too! (And I say that speaking as a senior citizen.)
- voakbasda 3y ago
  While I agree, this would be career suicide for any politician brave or foolish enough to suggest it.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
myself248 3y ago
https://archive.is/FsmyG https://archive.is/FsmyG
- linusg789 3y ago
  https://ghostarchive.org/archive/5QVrI https://ghostarchive.org/archive/5QVrI
gruez 3y ago
>The kids who drove best ended up having a 10% lower-than-average crash risk. The ones who experienced major issues had an 11% higher-than-average chance of getting into a wreck. That seems pretty weak in terms of predictive power.
- gnicholas 3y ago
  I would be interested to see the absolute numbers here, since the vast majority of drivers (even teens) don’t get into a crash.
Symbiote 3y ago
A little towards this is included in the British driving test, like the example of the boy missing the car behind the trees. The "hazard perception test" is a video showing driving, and the student must identify (by clicking) the likely hazards. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=SdQRkmdhwJs https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=SdQRkmdhwJs (I think, I can't watch it with sound right now.)
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
xnx 3y ago
What's the current curriculum for drivers Ed look like? I would hope it would be at least a hundred hours in a high fidelity simulator like this with detailed scoring.
- jpsouth 3y ago
  In the UK at least you can take your test pretty much whenever, typically your instructor would say you’re ready to try and put you forward for it but there’s no requirement that I’m aware of to do a minimum number of hours. We also don’t use simulators, UK driving students are on standard roads with other road users.
  - Thedarkb 3y ago
    In Ireland you need to have held your provisional license for at least six months and done 12 lessons with a certified instructor before they allow you to take the test.
    - jpsouth 3y ago
      It seems like we’ve no rules in the UK around it, as long as you’ve passed your theory (which you can book before 17 so it’s ready for your birthday) you can book your practical. You’ll struggle to book one less than 6 months in advance I believe, but in theory you could be driving at 17 years and a couple weeks.
- kjkjadksj 3y ago
  In the US its not required after a certain age and more drivers are waiting and skipping it
  - Broken_Hippo 3y ago
    And to be fair, it isn't that much wait in some places. In Indiana, for example, drivers education lets you get it about 6 months earlier than if a relative teaches you. Without drivers ed, you can get a learner permit at 16 as long as you pass the "knowledge test".
noqc 3y ago
You cannot determine how likely something is to occur in a universal sense. To be accurate, the headline should read "young drivers who fail test 20% more likely to be in crash than those who pass". As it stands, this reads like an advertisement for a test you can give your teen to decide whether or not they should be allowed to drive. A 20% improvement in predictive power is not worth the money, since it probably shouldn't change your decision.
jsjohnst 3y ago
Here’s the company behind this and a description of the experience: http://www.diagnosticdriving.com/how-readyassess-works http://www.diagnosticdriving.com/how-readyassess-works
swader999 3y ago
Kids receiving nice cars as gifts from parents on their sixteenth birthday was a reliable crash predictor for my classmates growing up. The ones that worked hard to contribute to the cost and often bought second hand seemed to have a lot less accidents.
- kjkjadksj 3y ago
  The kids driving a lease would not only total their cars routinely but get a new one immediately after. No consequences.
- analog31 3y ago
  My mom taught high school. She noticed that the kids with cars also tended to have lower grades.
  - rr808 3y ago
    I'd love to know if long term earnings are affected. I know a bunch of people who can't drive and it really seems to restrict what you can do in life.
    - bossyTeacher 3y ago
      > I know a bunch of people who can't drive and it really seems to restrict what you can do in life I would imagine that you are a US citizen. Car dependency is more of an American problem imo. The fact that you depend (yes, dependency not power or freedom) on an expensive piece of metal to go anywhere is crazy. Imagine if medieval peasants had to have a horse to go anywhere from work to the food market
      - rr808 3y ago
        I am both American and EU citizen. Yes US is more car dependent but its the same everywhere. My mother can't drive and lives rurally, she rarely gets to visit her relatives unless someone drives her. > Imagine if medieval peasants had to have a horse to go anywhere from work to the food market Not sure where you're going with this. 2 of my grandfathers were farmers and they had horses to work the farm and deliver goods.
ACV001 3y ago
Bullshit for the insurance companies to charge more
whatever1 3y ago
Being overly cautious can also cause crashes. There are cases that if you hesitate (for example stopping because you think you cannot clear the intersection on time), you surely gonna cause accident. My sibling was a much more careful and law abiding young driver compared to me. The crash tally says otherwise.
- Retric 3y ago
  Not all crashes are equivalent. Being rear ended for stopping too soon has different risks than being T-Boned for running a read light. Several driving behaviors reduce your risk of death while increase the risks you end up in an accident.
- jl6 3y ago
  A sudden stop is something the driver behind should be prepared to handle, so if there’s a crash, it’s caused by a lack of caution on the part of the driver behind, not overcaution of the braking driver.
  - genocidicbunny 3y ago
    True, but it doesn't really change the calculus at all. Good defensive driving includes considering the human factors, which also means anticipating when other drivers don't drive well or suddenly decide to do something stupid. So yes, the person behind you that rear-ended you might be in the wrong, but you're still going to be left with a life-long spinal injury. As they say -- you can be dead right, but you're also dead.
  - gnicholas 3y ago
    It is generally presumed that the driver who rear ends a stopping car is the one who is at fault. But this is a rebuttable presumption: the following driver can shift the responsibility if he can show that he was following at a safe distance and that the driver in front braked too aggressively/for no reason. For example, if you’re doing 70 on the freeway and the car in front of you screeches to a halt to avoid hitting a squirrel, you could prove this is unreasonable braking. If it’s a deer in the road, you’re going to have a harder time. It depends on the circumstances.
hank808 3y ago
If you want to share this with a friend or someone, copy and paste this into a message [thought it might save people a minute]: Original Article: https://www.wsj.com/tech/personal-tech/this-test-can-tell-how-likely-a-young-driver-is-to-crash-4eb692bf https://www.wsj.com/tech/personal-tech/this-test-can-tell-ho... Archived Article: https://archive.is/FsmyG https://archive.is/FsmyG Discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38980501 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38980501
gnicholas 3y ago
One possible difference if this is deployed in real life: teens who score well may become overconfident, or at least not as cautious as they should be. I don’t think the converse is as likely to manifest differently than in the original research, because teens who did poorly would likely already know this (from having hit or nearly hit things). Drivers who did well would not know how close their score was to the ceiling; merely not hitting stuff wouldn’t necessarily lead to overconfidence.

17 points by fortran77 3y ago

fortran77 3y ago

They should give this test to old drivers, too! (And I say that speaking as a senior citizen.)

voakbasda 3y ago
While I agree, this would be career suicide for any politician brave or foolish enough to suggest it.
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]

myself248 3y ago

https://archive.is/FsmyG https://archive.is/FsmyG

linusg789 3y ago
https://ghostarchive.org/archive/5QVrI https://ghostarchive.org/archive/5QVrI

gruez 3y ago

>The kids who drove best ended up having a 10% lower-than-average crash risk. The ones who experienced major issues had an 11% higher-than-average chance of getting into a wreck. That seems pretty weak in terms of predictive power.

gnicholas 3y ago
I would be interested to see the absolute numbers here, since the vast majority of drivers (even teens) don’t get into a crash.

Symbiote 3y ago

A little towards this is included in the British driving test, like the example of the boy missing the car behind the trees. The "hazard perception test" is a video showing driving, and the student must identify (by clicking) the likely hazards. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=SdQRkmdhwJs https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=SdQRkmdhwJs (I think, I can't watch it with sound right now.)

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

xnx 3y ago

What's the current curriculum for drivers Ed look like? I would hope it would be at least a hundred hours in a high fidelity simulator like this with detailed scoring.

jpsouth 3y ago
In the UK at least you can take your test pretty much whenever, typically your instructor would say you’re ready to try and put you forward for it but there’s no requirement that I’m aware of to do a minimum number of hours. We also don’t use simulators, UK driving students are on standard roads with other road users.
- Thedarkb 3y ago
  In Ireland you need to have held your provisional license for at least six months and done 12 lessons with a certified instructor before they allow you to take the test.
  - jpsouth 3y ago
    It seems like we’ve no rules in the UK around it, as long as you’ve passed your theory (which you can book before 17 so it’s ready for your birthday) you can book your practical. You’ll struggle to book one less than 6 months in advance I believe, but in theory you could be driving at 17 years and a couple weeks.
kjkjadksj 3y ago
In the US its not required after a certain age and more drivers are waiting and skipping it
- Broken_Hippo 3y ago
  And to be fair, it isn't that much wait in some places. In Indiana, for example, drivers education lets you get it about 6 months earlier than if a relative teaches you. Without drivers ed, you can get a learner permit at 16 as long as you pass the "knowledge test".

noqc 3y ago

You cannot determine how likely something is to occur in a universal sense. To be accurate, the headline should read "young drivers who fail test 20% more likely to be in crash than those who pass". As it stands, this reads like an advertisement for a test you can give your teen to decide whether or not they should be allowed to drive. A 20% improvement in predictive power is not worth the money, since it probably shouldn't change your decision.

jsjohnst 3y ago

Here’s the company behind this and a description of the experience: http://www.diagnosticdriving.com/how-readyassess-works http://www.diagnosticdriving.com/how-readyassess-works

swader999 3y ago

Kids receiving nice cars as gifts from parents on their sixteenth birthday was a reliable crash predictor for my classmates growing up. The ones that worked hard to contribute to the cost and often bought second hand seemed to have a lot less accidents.

kjkjadksj 3y ago
The kids driving a lease would not only total their cars routinely but get a new one immediately after. No consequences.
analog31 3y ago
My mom taught high school. She noticed that the kids with cars also tended to have lower grades.
- rr808 3y ago
  I'd love to know if long term earnings are affected. I know a bunch of people who can't drive and it really seems to restrict what you can do in life.
  - bossyTeacher 3y ago
    > I know a bunch of people who can't drive and it really seems to restrict what you can do in life I would imagine that you are a US citizen. Car dependency is more of an American problem imo. The fact that you depend (yes, dependency not power or freedom) on an expensive piece of metal to go anywhere is crazy. Imagine if medieval peasants had to have a horse to go anywhere from work to the food market
    - rr808 3y ago
      I am both American and EU citizen. Yes US is more car dependent but its the same everywhere. My mother can't drive and lives rurally, she rarely gets to visit her relatives unless someone drives her. > Imagine if medieval peasants had to have a horse to go anywhere from work to the food market Not sure where you're going with this. 2 of my grandfathers were farmers and they had horses to work the farm and deliver goods.

ACV001 3y ago

Bullshit for the insurance companies to charge more

whatever1 3y ago

Being overly cautious can also cause crashes. There are cases that if you hesitate (for example stopping because you think you cannot clear the intersection on time), you surely gonna cause accident. My sibling was a much more careful and law abiding young driver compared to me. The crash tally says otherwise.

Retric 3y ago
Not all crashes are equivalent. Being rear ended for stopping too soon has different risks than being T-Boned for running a read light. Several driving behaviors reduce your risk of death while increase the risks you end up in an accident.
jl6 3y ago
A sudden stop is something the driver behind should be prepared to handle, so if there’s a crash, it’s caused by a lack of caution on the part of the driver behind, not overcaution of the braking driver.
- genocidicbunny 3y ago
  True, but it doesn't really change the calculus at all. Good defensive driving includes considering the human factors, which also means anticipating when other drivers don't drive well or suddenly decide to do something stupid. So yes, the person behind you that rear-ended you might be in the wrong, but you're still going to be left with a life-long spinal injury. As they say -- you can be dead right, but you're also dead.
- gnicholas 3y ago
  It is generally presumed that the driver who rear ends a stopping car is the one who is at fault. But this is a rebuttable presumption: the following driver can shift the responsibility if he can show that he was following at a safe distance and that the driver in front braked too aggressively/for no reason. For example, if you’re doing 70 on the freeway and the car in front of you screeches to a halt to avoid hitting a squirrel, you could prove this is unreasonable braking. If it’s a deer in the road, you’re going to have a harder time. It depends on the circumstances.

hank808 3y ago

If you want to share this with a friend or someone, copy and paste this into a message [thought it might save people a minute]: Original Article: https://www.wsj.com/tech/personal-tech/this-test-can-tell-how-likely-a-young-driver-is-to-crash-4eb692bf https://www.wsj.com/tech/personal-tech/this-test-can-tell-ho... Archived Article: https://archive.is/FsmyG https://archive.is/FsmyG Discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38980501 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38980501

gnicholas 3y ago

One possible difference if this is deployed in real life: teens who score well may become overconfident, or at least not as cautious as they should be. I don’t think the converse is as likely to manifest differently than in the original research, because teens who did poorly would likely already know this (from having hit or nearly hit things). Drivers who did well would not know how close their score was to the ceiling; merely not hitting stuff wouldn’t necessarily lead to overconfidence.