6 ms·

It foretells a future of DJI delivering payloads in the US.

echelon 3y ago
Is there a US drone manufacturer on-par with DJI, or does DJI have the entire field on lock? What about if broken down by sector - consumer/prosumer/hobbyist, industrial, military?
- hiddencost 3y ago
  Parent is suggesting we'll see war or terrorism in the US with drones. It was in response to a comment about Ukraine, where DJI drones are heavily (maybe as many as 50k [0]a month by the Ukrainians) to drop hand grenades in trenches. Honestly realistic. Very hard to stop. [0] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-12-2024 https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offens...
  - corethree 3y ago
    No. DJI is a Chinese company. If it happens, the next world changing conflict after ww2 is war with China. You can bet your ass China will weaponize those drones if that happens, and that's a really big IF.
    - cultofmetatron 3y ago
      Id be terrified of a war with china. a typical dji pocket drone would be a effective miliary tool in the right hands and they don't even consider that miliary grade. I can only wonder what the "good stuff" looks like.
      - corethree 3y ago
        A typical dji drone is more advanced and cheaper then all other drones of the same size and caliber. dji is pretty much the best at it right now. As for the good stuff like the F-35, the US still dominates. The overall problem is that it's like 100000x the cost. Take this, if the US lost it's entire navy in an instant it would take the US over a decade to rebuild. If the same thing happened to China they can rebuild that Navy in a year.
        dzhiurgis 3y ago
        Why I’m thinking that pocket drone has more tech than f35?
        corethree 3y ago
        It's not "more" tech. It's different tech. Lockheed makes the f-35. If Lockheed were to try to make a drone equivalent to the best that DJI has to offer they would make that drone more expensive and actually much worse in performance, size and technology then the Chinese counter part. One isn't more advanced then the other but each respective country is more advanced then the other in both of these technologies.
    - andruby 3y ago
      Is there really such a scare of a war with China in the US?
      - corethree 3y ago
        No not at the moment. The actual risk is low but it is still in the realm of possibility. It is also one of highest cost potential conflicts still in the realm of possibility. Both countries would strike the other down in a heart beat if there wasn't a huge economic cost associated with war.
      - Roark66 3y ago
        You know, for years people said the same thing in Ukraine about Russia. Sadly, an authoritarian regime (anything not democratic, mafia state, even a good old fashioned kingdom, or dictatorship) is always a threat for not just neighbours enjoying freedom and prosperity, but any such country around the world. Especially now that media and Internet can counter any state propaganda showing how great a paradise North Korea, China, Iran, or Russia is. Why did Russia absolutely have to attack Ukraine? Because it's very existence in peace with the west, eventual economic prosperity (like Poland, Czech Rep. etc), eventual diminishing of corruption as the country implements new laws are an example what Russia could be. Why is Poland the most hated country by ordinary state TV watching Russians? Because it's a medium sized country that achieved success being a part "of the West". The typical part of the Russian imperial (designed to enslave others) narrative is: Every strong partner will exploit a weaker one. Democracy is a lie. All you do by becoming democratic is you hide the corruption and you switch one ruler for another. China uses the same narrative, but internally. That's why these countries will do absolutely everything to poison the society in the US and any democratic country. When they are prevented of doing so (and they will, because people will learn what is the truth) and their regimes inevitably collapse economically (as China is starting right now) war is the only way these people can stay in power. So yes, a war between autocracies and free countries is inevitable unless free countries are strong enough militarily to be able to win it in few months tops. A prolonged war, like what we're seeing in Ukraine is actually a huge benefit for autocracies, because it removes the only thing they fear the most, their own people uprising.
    - sneak 3y ago
      China doesn’t need to go to war with the US. They just need to keep building, and waiting. The trend lines for the growth of the superpowers are clear. Your great grandchildren will be native speakers of Mandarin.
      - The_Colonel 3y ago
        No, it's not clear at all. The latest forecasts are not even clear about China surpassing US in nominal GDP. China's demographics look pretty horrible in the long term, US on the other hand is quite healthy. China doesn't really have allies like the US has.
        corethree 3y ago
        Yeah it's not clear. But it still remains an extremely viable possibility. Additionally china has already surpassed the US in overall manufacturing.
      - postingawayonhn 3y ago
        You assume China can develop to western levels without a regime change.
        corethree 3y ago
        China already dominates manufacturing without a regime change. They have surpassed "western levels". There's only a few remaining areas that the US still dominates. Those areas include aviation, and JavaScript. The US has basically moved up the stack while China has taken over the entire bottom of the stack.
        YZF 3y ago
        "Aviation and JavaScript" lol. Maybe the Boeing issues are related to the use of JavaScript in Aviation? Not really arguing about China being a manufacturing power house but I don't think that was the point that was being made. That part might be compatible with their regime (though arguably not the current regime any more). What would be the top 10 tech/science areas, other than aviation and JavaScript where China has demonstrable leadership over the west? During Covid we saw mRNA vaccines coming quickly from the west. Including their manufacturing. Semi-conductor manufacturing technology is still led by the west (all the way up and down the stack). Tesla is manufacturing in the west fairly successfully (ofcourse with lots of Chinese parts). In the compute world I can't think of a single technology where China clearly leads. They might be manufacturing a lot of components but they're not the ones innovating/designing. Manufacturing is about cost/scale/momentum and they're still carrying a lot of the investment forward but I don't think the derivative of that is as steep as it was 5-10 years ago.
  - The_Colonel 3y ago
    TBH I'm surprised we haven't seen drone terrorism
- lucubratory 3y ago
  DJI has almost everything locked down aside from military. Parrot and Skydio try to compete backed by heavy subsidies/large guaranteed contracts but in terms of volume, revenue, R&D spend etc they're irrelevant on the global market. Even in the US market they're only relevant in government - the only difference between them and niche providers like AeroVironment is scale and the attempt to market to consumers. The US has a decent military drone industry, extremely expensive compared to international competitors with not as much dynamism/variety, but good volumes and reliability. China has good prices, is the global leader in dynamism/variety, and also global leader in volume; they're the biggest exporter. Turkey and Iran are both way above their weight class specifically in drone production, too, as is Israel. Turkey is even to the point where they're competing with China, which is really impressive for a middle power.
jareklupinski 3y ago
that was one of my favorite Call of Duty campaign twists

Is there a US drone manufacturer on-par with DJI, or does DJI have the entire field on lock? What about if broken down by sector - consumer/prosumer/hobbyist, industrial, military?

hiddencost 3y ago
Parent is suggesting we'll see war or terrorism in the US with drones. It was in response to a comment about Ukraine, where DJI drones are heavily (maybe as many as 50k [0]a month by the Ukrainians) to drop hand grenades in trenches. Honestly realistic. Very hard to stop. [0] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-12-2024 https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offens...
- corethree 3y ago
  No. DJI is a Chinese company. If it happens, the next world changing conflict after ww2 is war with China. You can bet your ass China will weaponize those drones if that happens, and that's a really big IF.
  - cultofmetatron 3y ago
    Id be terrified of a war with china. a typical dji pocket drone would be a effective miliary tool in the right hands and they don't even consider that miliary grade. I can only wonder what the "good stuff" looks like.
    - corethree 3y ago
      A typical dji drone is more advanced and cheaper then all other drones of the same size and caliber. dji is pretty much the best at it right now. As for the good stuff like the F-35, the US still dominates. The overall problem is that it's like 100000x the cost. Take this, if the US lost it's entire navy in an instant it would take the US over a decade to rebuild. If the same thing happened to China they can rebuild that Navy in a year.
      - dzhiurgis 3y ago
        Why I’m thinking that pocket drone has more tech than f35?
        corethree 3y ago
        It's not "more" tech. It's different tech. Lockheed makes the f-35. If Lockheed were to try to make a drone equivalent to the best that DJI has to offer they would make that drone more expensive and actually much worse in performance, size and technology then the Chinese counter part. One isn't more advanced then the other but each respective country is more advanced then the other in both of these technologies.
  - andruby 3y ago
    Is there really such a scare of a war with China in the US?
    - corethree 3y ago
      No not at the moment. The actual risk is low but it is still in the realm of possibility. It is also one of highest cost potential conflicts still in the realm of possibility. Both countries would strike the other down in a heart beat if there wasn't a huge economic cost associated with war.
    - Roark66 3y ago
      You know, for years people said the same thing in Ukraine about Russia. Sadly, an authoritarian regime (anything not democratic, mafia state, even a good old fashioned kingdom, or dictatorship) is always a threat for not just neighbours enjoying freedom and prosperity, but any such country around the world. Especially now that media and Internet can counter any state propaganda showing how great a paradise North Korea, China, Iran, or Russia is. Why did Russia absolutely have to attack Ukraine? Because it's very existence in peace with the west, eventual economic prosperity (like Poland, Czech Rep. etc), eventual diminishing of corruption as the country implements new laws are an example what Russia could be. Why is Poland the most hated country by ordinary state TV watching Russians? Because it's a medium sized country that achieved success being a part "of the West". The typical part of the Russian imperial (designed to enslave others) narrative is: Every strong partner will exploit a weaker one. Democracy is a lie. All you do by becoming democratic is you hide the corruption and you switch one ruler for another. China uses the same narrative, but internally. That's why these countries will do absolutely everything to poison the society in the US and any democratic country. When they are prevented of doing so (and they will, because people will learn what is the truth) and their regimes inevitably collapse economically (as China is starting right now) war is the only way these people can stay in power. So yes, a war between autocracies and free countries is inevitable unless free countries are strong enough militarily to be able to win it in few months tops. A prolonged war, like what we're seeing in Ukraine is actually a huge benefit for autocracies, because it removes the only thing they fear the most, their own people uprising.
  - sneak 3y ago
    China doesn’t need to go to war with the US. They just need to keep building, and waiting. The trend lines for the growth of the superpowers are clear. Your great grandchildren will be native speakers of Mandarin.
    - The_Colonel 3y ago
      No, it's not clear at all. The latest forecasts are not even clear about China surpassing US in nominal GDP. China's demographics look pretty horrible in the long term, US on the other hand is quite healthy. China doesn't really have allies like the US has.
      - corethree 3y ago
        Yeah it's not clear. But it still remains an extremely viable possibility. Additionally china has already surpassed the US in overall manufacturing.
    - postingawayonhn 3y ago
      You assume China can develop to western levels without a regime change.
      - corethree 3y ago
        China already dominates manufacturing without a regime change. They have surpassed "western levels". There's only a few remaining areas that the US still dominates. Those areas include aviation, and JavaScript. The US has basically moved up the stack while China has taken over the entire bottom of the stack.
        YZF 3y ago
        "Aviation and JavaScript" lol. Maybe the Boeing issues are related to the use of JavaScript in Aviation? Not really arguing about China being a manufacturing power house but I don't think that was the point that was being made. That part might be compatible with their regime (though arguably not the current regime any more). What would be the top 10 tech/science areas, other than aviation and JavaScript where China has demonstrable leadership over the west? During Covid we saw mRNA vaccines coming quickly from the west. Including their manufacturing. Semi-conductor manufacturing technology is still led by the west (all the way up and down the stack). Tesla is manufacturing in the west fairly successfully (ofcourse with lots of Chinese parts). In the compute world I can't think of a single technology where China clearly leads. They might be manufacturing a lot of components but they're not the ones innovating/designing. Manufacturing is about cost/scale/momentum and they're still carrying a lot of the investment forward but I don't think the derivative of that is as steep as it was 5-10 years ago.
- The_Colonel 3y ago
  TBH I'm surprised we haven't seen drone terrorism
lucubratory 3y ago
DJI has almost everything locked down aside from military. Parrot and Skydio try to compete backed by heavy subsidies/large guaranteed contracts but in terms of volume, revenue, R&D spend etc they're irrelevant on the global market. Even in the US market they're only relevant in government - the only difference between them and niche providers like AeroVironment is scale and the attempt to market to consumers. The US has a decent military drone industry, extremely expensive compared to international competitors with not as much dynamism/variety, but good volumes and reliability. China has good prices, is the global leader in dynamism/variety, and also global leader in volume; they're the biggest exporter. Turkey and Iran are both way above their weight class specifically in drone production, too, as is Israel. Turkey is even to the point where they're competing with China, which is really impressive for a middle power.

jareklupinski 3y ago

that was one of my favorite Call of Duty campaign twists