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We cannot even ban the development of Nuclear Weapons much less a technology that could be developed for peaceful purposes then switch to terminator mode. Have

We cannot even ban the development of Nuclear Weapons much less a technology that could be developed for peaceful purposes then switch to terminator mode. Have you seen how drones are being used in the Ukraine Russian War? How long did it take for drone tech to go from light shows in Dubia [1] to dropping grenades into Russian Tanks [2]. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJSzltMFd58 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJSzltMFd58 [2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZYEoiuDNY3U https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZYEoiuDNY3U

ericfrazier 3y ago
Not fast enough.
int_19h 3y ago
The real crazy stuff isn't the grenade-bombing drones; it's FPV: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pe5RvttOs-E https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pe5RvttOs-E. They have pretty much replaced guided anti-tank missiles for both sides because of how much cheaper they are, and the ability to easily fly around and hit where the armor is thinnest, or even inside the vehicle, before exploding; they can also fly inside trenches, bunkers, and other emplacementes. DJI FPV ($1k retail) supposedly has about 1 in 3 chance of taking out a moving tank that is not a sitting duck - i.e. hatches closed etc - and does not expose the operator to danger in the process. For comparison, a single Javelin is $240k. FPV drones are cheap enough that they're routinely used even against minor targets such as unarmored small cars and even individual soldiers - even after accounting for failures before a successful hit, it still ends up costing the enemy a lot more in $$$ than was spent on all the drones.
- BobaFloutist 3y ago
  I mean if you think about it, an individual soldier is far more expensive/valuable than 1k, even in much cheaper countries.
- genman 3y ago
  Your cost of Javalin is off by order of magnitude but still the point stands - drones are much more cost effective.
  - int_19h 3y ago
    My estimate was a bit off because it was a market price for an export unit. But according to US procurement documentation, a single Javelin costs American taxpayers $197,884 to send, so it's the same order of magnitude.
- manquer 3y ago
  The cost of the drone is not the only cost . You still need tank busting munition and the also crucially internet connectivity starlink provides or satellites provide. Starlink is cheap for its capabilities but it is still startup cost of billions of dollars if you could do it all .
  - int_19h 3y ago
    The tank-busting munitions that they typically use are conventional RPG warheads, as seen in the video I've linked. They work great provided that they hit a weakly armored spot, and they're even cheaper than the drone itself. And no, you don't need Internet connectivity for those things. You need to be within radio range, but this can still mean 1-2 km away easily even on stock equipment, and more with better antennae etc.
    - manquer 3y ago
      Conventional RPG warheads still cost money, a lot of money if you want them to reliably explode. Javelin has a warhead capacity of 9Kg, for the same bang so to speak ( armor penetration) you would need drones that can hoist 9Kg, those don't retail at anywhere near $1,000. That doesn't mean that cheap drones are not effective means of weapons delivery, they are as this war is showing. They are akin to side arms, when penetration is not a factor they are useful, but they are hardly a replacement for heavy guided munitions like Javelin. Man Pads are by no means perfect, the current gen is 30 years old, they could be made much smarter and lot cheaper than $250,000, however just $1000 drone is not going to replace them yet.
      - philwelch 3y ago
        MANPADS means Man-Portable Air Defense System. Javelin is an anti-tank weapon, not an air defense weapon. And the main advantage for Javelin over an FPV drone is that a Javelin is fire-and-forget; you don’t need to steer the missile yourself. It will attack the weaker top armor automatically.
      - MeImCounting 3y ago
- trhway 3y ago
  >The real crazy stuff isn't the grenade-bombing drones; it's FPV well, FPV is quickly becoming yesterday stuff - the EM warfare makes direct video connection infeasible, at least near the target. So, the most recent drones can guide themselves toward the target using computer vision - the operator brings them closer to the target's position, points-and-clicks at the target on screen, and the drone does the rest on its own.

ericfrazier 3y ago

Not fast enough.

int_19h 3y ago

The real crazy stuff isn't the grenade-bombing drones; it's FPV: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pe5RvttOs-E https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pe5RvttOs-E. They have pretty much replaced guided anti-tank missiles for both sides because of how much cheaper they are, and the ability to easily fly around and hit where the armor is thinnest, or even inside the vehicle, before exploding; they can also fly inside trenches, bunkers, and other emplacementes. DJI FPV ($1k retail) supposedly has about 1 in 3 chance of taking out a moving tank that is not a sitting duck - i.e. hatches closed etc - and does not expose the operator to danger in the process. For comparison, a single Javelin is $240k. FPV drones are cheap enough that they're routinely used even against minor targets such as unarmored small cars and even individual soldiers - even after accounting for failures before a successful hit, it still ends up costing the enemy a lot more in $$$ than was spent on all the drones.

BobaFloutist 3y ago
I mean if you think about it, an individual soldier is far more expensive/valuable than 1k, even in much cheaper countries.
genman 3y ago
Your cost of Javalin is off by order of magnitude but still the point stands - drones are much more cost effective.
- int_19h 3y ago
  My estimate was a bit off because it was a market price for an export unit. But according to US procurement documentation, a single Javelin costs American taxpayers $197,884 to send, so it's the same order of magnitude.
manquer 3y ago
The cost of the drone is not the only cost . You still need tank busting munition and the also crucially internet connectivity starlink provides or satellites provide. Starlink is cheap for its capabilities but it is still startup cost of billions of dollars if you could do it all .
- int_19h 3y ago
  The tank-busting munitions that they typically use are conventional RPG warheads, as seen in the video I've linked. They work great provided that they hit a weakly armored spot, and they're even cheaper than the drone itself. And no, you don't need Internet connectivity for those things. You need to be within radio range, but this can still mean 1-2 km away easily even on stock equipment, and more with better antennae etc.
  - manquer 3y ago
    Conventional RPG warheads still cost money, a lot of money if you want them to reliably explode. Javelin has a warhead capacity of 9Kg, for the same bang so to speak ( armor penetration) you would need drones that can hoist 9Kg, those don't retail at anywhere near $1,000. That doesn't mean that cheap drones are not effective means of weapons delivery, they are as this war is showing. They are akin to side arms, when penetration is not a factor they are useful, but they are hardly a replacement for heavy guided munitions like Javelin. Man Pads are by no means perfect, the current gen is 30 years old, they could be made much smarter and lot cheaper than $250,000, however just $1000 drone is not going to replace them yet.
    - philwelch 3y ago
      MANPADS means Man-Portable Air Defense System. Javelin is an anti-tank weapon, not an air defense weapon. And the main advantage for Javelin over an FPV drone is that a Javelin is fire-and-forget; you don’t need to steer the missile yourself. It will attack the weaker top armor automatically.
    - MeImCounting 3y ago
trhway 3y ago
>The real crazy stuff isn't the grenade-bombing drones; it's FPV well, FPV is quickly becoming yesterday stuff - the EM warfare makes direct video connection infeasible, at least near the target. So, the most recent drones can guide themselves toward the target using computer vision - the operator brings them closer to the target's position, points-and-clicks at the target on screen, and the drone does the rest on its own.