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> Even countries with robust natalist subsidy policies cannot materially lift the TFR. So we are told, but this reeks of pretend-helplessness, an excuse not to

> Even countries with robust natalist subsidy policies cannot materially lift the TFR. So we are told, but this reeks of pretend-helplessness, an excuse not to even try. The Czech Republic raised its fertility rate from 1.1 in 1999, to 1.8 in 2021 [1,2], so it is empirically possible. [1] https://stoppopulationdecline.org/re-familisation-czech-republic-shows-the-west-how-to-reverse-fertility-rate-decline/# https://stoppopulationdecline.org/re-familisation-czech-repu... [2] https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=CZ https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?location...

toomuchtodo 3y ago
Would you bet on political will and a supportive electorate? Any other similar outcomes to the Czech Republic? Or are they an outlier perhaps unable to be reproduced? 40%-50% of global pregnancies are unintended annually. When contraceptives are readily available and women are empowered, the fertility rate falls. Is there enough fiat to change that? There is a light cone based on aggregate productive labor participation, and it shrinks as the population shrinks. https://www.unfpa.org/press/nearly-half-all-pregnancies-are-unintended-global-crisis-says-new-unfpa-report https://www.unfpa.org/press/nearly-half-all-pregnancies-are-... https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#what-explains-the-change-in-the-number-of-children-women-have https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#what-explains-the-...
- jevoten 3y ago
  > Any other similar outcomes to the Czech Republic? Or are they an outlier perhaps unable to be reproduced? "We shouldn't try because it won't work. We know it won't work because there are so few examples of it working." Most countries used to have above-replacement fertility. At least some countries that implement natalist policies recover fertility. While not exactly a reversal of low fertility, Israel is an example of an advanced economy with above-replacement fertility. Evidence points overwhelmingly towards this being a fixable problem, if only we try. Certainly few other problems are approached this way - we don't give up on reducing CO2 emissions or plastic pollution just because we've so far not succeeded. One only approaches a problem this way if one doesn't want to solve it.
  - toomuchtodo 3y ago
    We disagree it’s a problem, or that a fix is needed.
    - jevoten 3y ago
      Populations that don't think it's a problem will be replaced by those who do.
      - deleted 3y ago
        [deleted]
      - toomuchtodo 3y ago
        I don’t think attempting to outbreed each other out of some concern about replacement is a rational or logical course of action, but alas, such is the human condition. A concern for someone else.
- wait_a_minute 3y ago
  People have decent enough access to fiat already. Certainly better than what our parents and grandparents and so on went through. What’s absent is the foresight to think about the future with wisdom. People are in party mode for too long and think life is just about single life living or an endless consumption-based vacation type of experience. We require a return to maturity and responsibility and clear, focused thoughts across the board. We need to have higher standards for truth and accurate information and accurate statistics. We need less climate fear-mongering and doom-scrolling. The world and civilization are not ending yet many youth are blasted by endless propaganda and negativity from a young age. We need to be smart and fixated on what’s true again, in all areas. Truth over lies and truthful statements and processes over half-truths or lies. So it’s a values and wisdom thing, which has been absent or pulled out from beneath people by the sudden subversion of reasoned and nuanced thinking by easy access to qualitatively cheap information and sound bites. I think the appetite for nuance will come back and this will represent a return to truth and consequently to more emphasis on family and especially the nuclear family.
  - hotpotamus 3y ago
    I suspect wisdom is not having children when you can't afford to take care of them. Just ensuring that my own medical care is met is a challenge - to add a couple kids to that equation is a terrifying notion. School and housing certainly haven't gotten any cheaper either.
    - wait_a_minute 3y ago
      There are always exceptions and it’s fine if wisdom leads someone in this direction. I believe those costs will decrease in real terms with time. Note that we were also higher up discussing staying home longer precisely to facilitate more affordability for the individual, an additional 3-5 years saving and investing into career and skills will help most individuals in this area significantly if they can do it.
      - hotpotamus 3y ago
        I don't believe costs will decrease because they never have in my lifetime, and I don't think I can be called a young adult any more. I'd be happy if they did though.

toomuchtodo 3y ago

Would you bet on political will and a supportive electorate? Any other similar outcomes to the Czech Republic? Or are they an outlier perhaps unable to be reproduced? 40%-50% of global pregnancies are unintended annually. When contraceptives are readily available and women are empowered, the fertility rate falls. Is there enough fiat to change that? There is a light cone based on aggregate productive labor participation, and it shrinks as the population shrinks. https://www.unfpa.org/press/nearly-half-all-pregnancies-are-unintended-global-crisis-says-new-unfpa-report https://www.unfpa.org/press/nearly-half-all-pregnancies-are-... https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#what-explains-the-change-in-the-number-of-children-women-have https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#what-explains-the-...

jevoten 3y ago
> Any other similar outcomes to the Czech Republic? Or are they an outlier perhaps unable to be reproduced? "We shouldn't try because it won't work. We know it won't work because there are so few examples of it working." Most countries used to have above-replacement fertility. At least some countries that implement natalist policies recover fertility. While not exactly a reversal of low fertility, Israel is an example of an advanced economy with above-replacement fertility. Evidence points overwhelmingly towards this being a fixable problem, if only we try. Certainly few other problems are approached this way - we don't give up on reducing CO2 emissions or plastic pollution just because we've so far not succeeded. One only approaches a problem this way if one doesn't want to solve it.
- toomuchtodo 3y ago
  We disagree it’s a problem, or that a fix is needed.
  - jevoten 3y ago
    Populations that don't think it's a problem will be replaced by those who do.
    - deleted 3y ago
      [deleted]
    - toomuchtodo 3y ago
      I don’t think attempting to outbreed each other out of some concern about replacement is a rational or logical course of action, but alas, such is the human condition. A concern for someone else.
wait_a_minute 3y ago
People have decent enough access to fiat already. Certainly better than what our parents and grandparents and so on went through. What’s absent is the foresight to think about the future with wisdom. People are in party mode for too long and think life is just about single life living or an endless consumption-based vacation type of experience. We require a return to maturity and responsibility and clear, focused thoughts across the board. We need to have higher standards for truth and accurate information and accurate statistics. We need less climate fear-mongering and doom-scrolling. The world and civilization are not ending yet many youth are blasted by endless propaganda and negativity from a young age. We need to be smart and fixated on what’s true again, in all areas. Truth over lies and truthful statements and processes over half-truths or lies. So it’s a values and wisdom thing, which has been absent or pulled out from beneath people by the sudden subversion of reasoned and nuanced thinking by easy access to qualitatively cheap information and sound bites. I think the appetite for nuance will come back and this will represent a return to truth and consequently to more emphasis on family and especially the nuclear family.
- hotpotamus 3y ago
  I suspect wisdom is not having children when you can't afford to take care of them. Just ensuring that my own medical care is met is a challenge - to add a couple kids to that equation is a terrifying notion. School and housing certainly haven't gotten any cheaper either.
  - wait_a_minute 3y ago
    There are always exceptions and it’s fine if wisdom leads someone in this direction. I believe those costs will decrease in real terms with time. Note that we were also higher up discussing staying home longer precisely to facilitate more affordability for the individual, an additional 3-5 years saving and investing into career and skills will help most individuals in this area significantly if they can do it.
    - hotpotamus 3y ago
      I don't believe costs will decrease because they never have in my lifetime, and I don't think I can be called a young adult any more. I'd be happy if they did though.