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I think it will actually increase fertility rate. Not leaving so soon and investing into your career and saving up money will eventually enable more people to c

I think it will actually increase fertility rate. Not leaving so soon and investing into your career and saving up money will eventually enable more people to choose parenthood. Multi-generational households are a nice thing and much more common outside the USA. Staying at home longer and leveraging American incomes and opportunities to grow more intentionally and sustainably will in the long run increase American fertility rate quite a bit as long as we can otherwise keep employment solid.

toomuchtodo 3y ago
https://www.nber.org/digest/feb12/impact-real-estate-market-fertility https://www.nber.org/digest/feb12/impact-real-estate-market-... > Housing prices have a significant impact on a family's decision to have children, according to a new study by Lisa Dettling and Melissa Schettini Kearney. In House Prices and Birth Rates: The Impact of the Real Estate Market on the Decision to Have a Baby (NBER Working Paper No. 17485), they find that a 10 percent increase in home prices leads to a 1 percent decrease in births among non-homeowners in an average metropolitan area. However, the negative effect among non-owners is offset by a 4.5 percent increase in births among current homeowners, who are now wealthier. The total fertility effect of an increase in house prices varies across demographic groups, largely because their rates of homeownership differ. The authors conclude that "house prices are a relevant factor in a couple's decision to have a baby." https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w17485/w17485.pdf https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w17485/w174... (look to South Korea if you want to see the future: https://time.com/6488894/south-korea-low-fertility-rate-trend-decline/ https://time.com/6488894/south-korea-low-fertility-rate-tren... ["The number of babies expected per woman probably dropped this year to 0.72 and will continue to fall through 2025, when it’s expected to reach 0.65, the statistical office said Thursday in its latest population forecasts. South Korea already has the world’s lowest fertility rate at 0.78 as of 2022."])
- ethbr1 3y ago
  Granted, but IMHO both of you are right. Current US mores ("be able to afford house, then start family") are driving the housing price:fertility correlation. But those mores can change, say, to become more aligned with the non-US, multi-generational world. And honestly, I think that would be a net positive on US culture.
  - toomuchtodo 3y ago
    The longer total fertility rate is held down, the firmer the trajectory becomes. Even countries with robust natalist subsidy policies cannot materially lift the TFR. https://www.axios.com/2021/11/24/more-americans-childless-pregnancy-fertility https://www.axios.com/2021/11/24/more-americans-childless-pr... https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0294459 https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal... https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2021/11/19/growing-share-of-childless-adults-in-u-s-dont-expect-to-ever-have-children/ https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2021/11/19/growing-s... https://thehill.com/opinion/immigration/4141600-pro-natalist-policies-are-great-but-declining-birth-rates-are-here-to-stay/ https://thehill.com/opinion/immigration/4141600-pro-natalist...
    - jevoten 3y ago
      > Even countries with robust natalist subsidy policies cannot materially lift the TFR. So we are told, but this reeks of pretend-helplessness, an excuse not to even try. The Czech Republic raised its fertility rate from 1.1 in 1999, to 1.8 in 2021 [1,2], so it is empirically possible. [1] https://stoppopulationdecline.org/re-familisation-czech-republic-shows-the-west-how-to-reverse-fertility-rate-decline/# https://stoppopulationdecline.org/re-familisation-czech-repu... [2] https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=CZ https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?location...
      - toomuchtodo 3y ago
        Would you bet on political will and a supportive electorate? Any other similar outcomes to the Czech Republic? Or are they an outlier perhaps unable to be reproduced? 40%-50% of global pregnancies are unintended annually. When contraceptives are readily available and women are empowered, the fertility rate falls. Is there enough fiat to change that? There is a light cone based on aggregate productive labor participation, and it shrinks as the population shrinks. https://www.unfpa.org/press/nearly-half-all-pregnancies-are-unintended-global-crisis-says-new-unfpa-report https://www.unfpa.org/press/nearly-half-all-pregnancies-are-... https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#what-explains-the-change-in-the-number-of-children-women-have https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#what-explains-the-...
- wait_a_minute 3y ago
  > 10 percent increase in home prices leads to a 1 percent decrease in births among non-homeowners in an average metropolitan area How many average metropolitan areas experienced 10% increases in home prices? That’s a lot to decrease births by just 1%
wvenable 3y ago
The later one starts in life to have children the fewer, if any, they will have. > Not leaving so soon and investing into your career and saving up money will eventually enable more people to choose parenthood. That might be true if it was a choice made to save money but instead it's not a choice and there isn't any money.
- wait_a_minute 3y ago
  > The later one starts in life to have children the fewer, if any, they will have. How do you know this? > That might be true if it was a choice made to save money but instead it's not a choice and there isn't any money. I’m betting savings rates will go up.
  - mikestew 3y ago
    Not parent commenter, and no offense intended, but some things one should be able to mentally walk through on your own without someone feeding you a link. In this particular case, for example, there’s an upper bound on how late in life a couple can conceive. Take it from there.
    - wait_a_minute 3y ago
      Likewise, it doesn’t hurt to take your own advice - an aspiring young man does not need to rush when he has offspring, and can plan to successfully have healthy children for most of his life even into his 50s. I ask questions to lead people into challenging their own assumptions.

toomuchtodo 3y ago

https://www.nber.org/digest/feb12/impact-real-estate-market-fertility https://www.nber.org/digest/feb12/impact-real-estate-market-... > Housing prices have a significant impact on a family's decision to have children, according to a new study by Lisa Dettling and Melissa Schettini Kearney. In House Prices and Birth Rates: The Impact of the Real Estate Market on the Decision to Have a Baby (NBER Working Paper No. 17485), they find that a 10 percent increase in home prices leads to a 1 percent decrease in births among non-homeowners in an average metropolitan area. However, the negative effect among non-owners is offset by a 4.5 percent increase in births among current homeowners, who are now wealthier. The total fertility effect of an increase in house prices varies across demographic groups, largely because their rates of homeownership differ. The authors conclude that "house prices are a relevant factor in a couple's decision to have a baby." https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w17485/w17485.pdf https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w17485/w174... (look to South Korea if you want to see the future: https://time.com/6488894/south-korea-low-fertility-rate-trend-decline/ https://time.com/6488894/south-korea-low-fertility-rate-tren... ["The number of babies expected per woman probably dropped this year to 0.72 and will continue to fall through 2025, when it’s expected to reach 0.65, the statistical office said Thursday in its latest population forecasts. South Korea already has the world’s lowest fertility rate at 0.78 as of 2022."])

ethbr1 3y ago
Granted, but IMHO both of you are right. Current US mores ("be able to afford house, then start family") are driving the housing price:fertility correlation. But those mores can change, say, to become more aligned with the non-US, multi-generational world. And honestly, I think that would be a net positive on US culture.
- toomuchtodo 3y ago
  The longer total fertility rate is held down, the firmer the trajectory becomes. Even countries with robust natalist subsidy policies cannot materially lift the TFR. https://www.axios.com/2021/11/24/more-americans-childless-pregnancy-fertility https://www.axios.com/2021/11/24/more-americans-childless-pr... https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0294459 https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal... https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2021/11/19/growing-share-of-childless-adults-in-u-s-dont-expect-to-ever-have-children/ https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2021/11/19/growing-s... https://thehill.com/opinion/immigration/4141600-pro-natalist-policies-are-great-but-declining-birth-rates-are-here-to-stay/ https://thehill.com/opinion/immigration/4141600-pro-natalist...
  - jevoten 3y ago
    > Even countries with robust natalist subsidy policies cannot materially lift the TFR. So we are told, but this reeks of pretend-helplessness, an excuse not to even try. The Czech Republic raised its fertility rate from 1.1 in 1999, to 1.8 in 2021 [1,2], so it is empirically possible. [1] https://stoppopulationdecline.org/re-familisation-czech-republic-shows-the-west-how-to-reverse-fertility-rate-decline/# https://stoppopulationdecline.org/re-familisation-czech-repu... [2] https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=CZ https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?location...
    - toomuchtodo 3y ago
      Would you bet on political will and a supportive electorate? Any other similar outcomes to the Czech Republic? Or are they an outlier perhaps unable to be reproduced? 40%-50% of global pregnancies are unintended annually. When contraceptives are readily available and women are empowered, the fertility rate falls. Is there enough fiat to change that? There is a light cone based on aggregate productive labor participation, and it shrinks as the population shrinks. https://www.unfpa.org/press/nearly-half-all-pregnancies-are-unintended-global-crisis-says-new-unfpa-report https://www.unfpa.org/press/nearly-half-all-pregnancies-are-... https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#what-explains-the-change-in-the-number-of-children-women-have https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#what-explains-the-...
wait_a_minute 3y ago
> 10 percent increase in home prices leads to a 1 percent decrease in births among non-homeowners in an average metropolitan area How many average metropolitan areas experienced 10% increases in home prices? That’s a lot to decrease births by just 1%

wvenable 3y ago

The later one starts in life to have children the fewer, if any, they will have. > Not leaving so soon and investing into your career and saving up money will eventually enable more people to choose parenthood. That might be true if it was a choice made to save money but instead it's not a choice and there isn't any money.

wait_a_minute 3y ago
> The later one starts in life to have children the fewer, if any, they will have. How do you know this? > That might be true if it was a choice made to save money but instead it's not a choice and there isn't any money. I’m betting savings rates will go up.
- mikestew 3y ago
  Not parent commenter, and no offense intended, but some things one should be able to mentally walk through on your own without someone feeding you a link. In this particular case, for example, there’s an upper bound on how late in life a couple can conceive. Take it from there.
  - wait_a_minute 3y ago
    Likewise, it doesn’t hurt to take your own advice - an aspiring young man does not need to rush when he has offspring, and can plan to successfully have healthy children for most of his life even into his 50s. I ask questions to lead people into challenging their own assumptions.