I don't claim that it can be used to say the economy is healthy. I take issue with OP's claim that large layoffs necessarily imply recession. Unless you know th

I don't claim that it can be used to say the economy is healthy. I take issue with OP's claim that large layoffs necessarily imply recession. Unless you know that the laid off workers aren't rehired by a competitor, you don't know if the layoff isn't just an outcome of competition. The national unemployment rate is a proxy for it. At least at the first order, if a large number of people are being laid off (and this isn't the first layoff in the sector, Wells Fargo has cut over 40k jobs from their peak) then so far they are being rehired. And I agree with you, desk workers aren't going to take a $15/hr job at the Flying J, which is why I believe they were likely to be hired either by competition or at least in occupations consistent with their skill set and aspirations, else we'd see them show up in unemployment stats. Check sector stats too - very low for finance https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU04032216# https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU04032216#