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I totally agree with this - it always seems like sort of a weird omission when people talk about AGI doing 95% of work without any discussion of robotics. It se

I totally agree with this - it always seems like sort of a weird omission when people talk about AGI doing 95% of work without any discussion of robotics. It seems very obvious that you need bipedal robots (or a lot of different types of robots) to hit that number. Do these AGI predictions assume that we'll have those by the time they hit AGI? Or is the word "knowledge" supposed to be implied before the work "work"? Either way, it's clearly inaccurate to say that AI on its own can do all productive work without physical embodiment.

jsharf 3y ago
If we have intelligent AI that can automate programming, then making really good robots will not be a problem. While not trivial, actuators and power systems are not the reason why we don’t have robots that can do all manual labor for us. Software is the reason, and the same kind of software that’s learning to code (machine learning) can also be adapted to washing dishes, folding clothing, doing craft labor or previously human manufacturing jobs. Accelerating programming and information jobs also means accelerating the creation of robots that can do these trade jobs
- idopmstuff 3y ago
  Totally - but is the AI development of robots included in the timeline for what you're calling AGI? Can we get to AGI without having those robots, and then the AGI designs them? I think they'll ultimately go hand in hand - this is more just a question of what we're defining AGI to be and whether robotics should be mandatory as part of the stated definition around doing 95% of work.
  - Jensson 3y ago
    The AGI will have to run the robots, problem solving when things go wrong is what allows humans to run large organized endeavors without getting stuck, you need AGI to do that for generalized work. Before AGI robots will only be able to handle tasks with very simple error scenarios, and will still need humans to look after them for the rare cases where things go more wrong.
spywaregorilla 3y ago
One good robot arm that a below minimum wage gig worker carries around. edit: he can also turn the crank to keep it powered maybe
- matt_heimer 3y ago
  Or the minimum wage gig worker is the robot. If we ever get neural interfaces working well maybe the AGI could control our motor functions. Maybe not full control, I don't think most people would be comfortable with that but think of shooting a gun. If the worker points the gun in the right general direction and the AGI add some fine tuning to turn them into an expert marksman...what army wouldn't turn all their conscripts into marksman? Basically the aim assist bots in video games but for real world. It could be used to let gig workers perform surgery, play in an orchestra, be actors in a movie.
  - spywaregorilla 3y ago
    robot arm is cheaper
matt_heimer 3y ago
I'm not sure that the physical embodiment needs to be robotic in nature. I'm a physically abled home owner and need to repair my hvac or plumbing. Instead of paying for someone in the trades to come out and do the work for me why can't I just put on a pair of augmented reality glasses and have the AGI use me? The camera and my voice inputs should allow the AGI to diagnose the issue, order needed parts, and then instruct me using visual overlays and audio prompts on completing the repair.
- vidarh 3y ago
  Having just done a half-assed plastering job, I will answer that with "because a lot trades needs practiced skills, not just the knowledge". Sure, it'll be one more thing that eats into bits and pieces of what we need trained labour for, but it won't eliminate it.
- pixl97 3y ago
  >why can't I just put on a pair of augmented reality glasses and have the AGI use me? [meme time] Oh god, oh fuck, we're going full Manna. [/meme time] https://marshallbrain.com/manna1 https://marshallbrain.com/manna1 For those have have not read Manna, this is a huge portion of the premise of the story that AI helmets turn us into automatons that allow the AI to further automate our jobs until we are all unemployed and destitute.
  - matt_heimer 3y ago
    Thanks - I should have worded that better. I'd like an AGI that helped to augment my abilities, not control me. But its still an AGI replacing a trade person, having a master plumber standing over my shoulder was more of what I was thinking of. The AGI having the knowledge is a form of control I guess but it seems acceptable to me. I hadn't seen manna before, thanks for sharing. There are some good thoughts there. The bit about girls liking Manna because it doesn't hit on them was excellent. The dad character had some good points too. The examples do seem a bit over the top (likely to drive home the premise). But honestly the verbosity seemed excellent for a new hire scenario. As long as it dynamically scaled down the verbosity of the instructions to match what was needed by each individual user would it really be awful if the managers got replaced? It is a fine line, the tech being used to add to our knowledge vs making us dumb robots. If it could be kept to teaching, certain types of management, and gamified checklists it wouldn't be the downfall of the human race. However I could easily see it getting to the point where customers are talking to the AGI mounted on your head instead of you and that is scary.

jsharf 3y ago

If we have intelligent AI that can automate programming, then making really good robots will not be a problem. While not trivial, actuators and power systems are not the reason why we don’t have robots that can do all manual labor for us. Software is the reason, and the same kind of software that’s learning to code (machine learning) can also be adapted to washing dishes, folding clothing, doing craft labor or previously human manufacturing jobs. Accelerating programming and information jobs also means accelerating the creation of robots that can do these trade jobs

idopmstuff 3y ago
Totally - but is the AI development of robots included in the timeline for what you're calling AGI? Can we get to AGI without having those robots, and then the AGI designs them? I think they'll ultimately go hand in hand - this is more just a question of what we're defining AGI to be and whether robotics should be mandatory as part of the stated definition around doing 95% of work.
- Jensson 3y ago
  The AGI will have to run the robots, problem solving when things go wrong is what allows humans to run large organized endeavors without getting stuck, you need AGI to do that for generalized work. Before AGI robots will only be able to handle tasks with very simple error scenarios, and will still need humans to look after them for the rare cases where things go more wrong.

spywaregorilla 3y ago

One good robot arm that a below minimum wage gig worker carries around. edit: he can also turn the crank to keep it powered maybe

matt_heimer 3y ago
Or the minimum wage gig worker is the robot. If we ever get neural interfaces working well maybe the AGI could control our motor functions. Maybe not full control, I don't think most people would be comfortable with that but think of shooting a gun. If the worker points the gun in the right general direction and the AGI add some fine tuning to turn them into an expert marksman...what army wouldn't turn all their conscripts into marksman? Basically the aim assist bots in video games but for real world. It could be used to let gig workers perform surgery, play in an orchestra, be actors in a movie.
- spywaregorilla 3y ago
  robot arm is cheaper

matt_heimer 3y ago

I'm not sure that the physical embodiment needs to be robotic in nature. I'm a physically abled home owner and need to repair my hvac or plumbing. Instead of paying for someone in the trades to come out and do the work for me why can't I just put on a pair of augmented reality glasses and have the AGI use me? The camera and my voice inputs should allow the AGI to diagnose the issue, order needed parts, and then instruct me using visual overlays and audio prompts on completing the repair.

vidarh 3y ago
Having just done a half-assed plastering job, I will answer that with "because a lot trades needs practiced skills, not just the knowledge". Sure, it'll be one more thing that eats into bits and pieces of what we need trained labour for, but it won't eliminate it.
pixl97 3y ago
>why can't I just put on a pair of augmented reality glasses and have the AGI use me? [meme time] Oh god, oh fuck, we're going full Manna. [/meme time] https://marshallbrain.com/manna1 https://marshallbrain.com/manna1 For those have have not read Manna, this is a huge portion of the premise of the story that AI helmets turn us into automatons that allow the AI to further automate our jobs until we are all unemployed and destitute.
- matt_heimer 3y ago
  Thanks - I should have worded that better. I'd like an AGI that helped to augment my abilities, not control me. But its still an AGI replacing a trade person, having a master plumber standing over my shoulder was more of what I was thinking of. The AGI having the knowledge is a form of control I guess but it seems acceptable to me. I hadn't seen manna before, thanks for sharing. There are some good thoughts there. The bit about girls liking Manna because it doesn't hit on them was excellent. The dad character had some good points too. The examples do seem a bit over the top (likely to drive home the premise). But honestly the verbosity seemed excellent for a new hire scenario. As long as it dynamically scaled down the verbosity of the instructions to match what was needed by each individual user would it really be awful if the managers got replaced? It is a fine line, the tech being used to add to our knowledge vs making us dumb robots. If it could be kept to teaching, certain types of management, and gamified checklists it wouldn't be the downfall of the human race. However I could easily see it getting to the point where customers are talking to the AGI mounted on your head instead of you and that is scary.