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Unemployment still pretty low. https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/ci

by yyyfb 3y ago

Unemployment still pretty low. https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-une... The environment is much less forgiving of management mistakes, but someone's layoffs can also be a competitor's hiring opportunity.

ok123456 3y ago
The laid-off email job corporate worker isn't going to take a job for $15/hr at the Flying J unclogging toilets. You can't use the total national average unemployment rate, which has issues of its own, to say the economy is healthy. In the same way, the stock market indices aren't helpful either beyond catastrophic values.
- HDThoreaun 3y ago
  Right, unemployment staying low through the layoffs show that the laid off have been able to find acceptable jobs.
  - cowboyscott 3y ago
    Not to nitpick, but I wonder if we can better define "acceptable." For a good layoff outcome, I'd expect the employee to find a new gig within a few months, that's +/- X% of their previous comp. Open question: has anyone seen this data?
- yyyfb 3y ago
  I don't claim that it can be used to say the economy is healthy. I take issue with OP's claim that large layoffs necessarily imply recession. Unless you know that the laid off workers aren't rehired by a competitor, you don't know if the layoff isn't just an outcome of competition. The national unemployment rate is a proxy for it. At least at the first order, if a large number of people are being laid off (and this isn't the first layoff in the sector, Wells Fargo has cut over 40k jobs from their peak) then so far they are being rehired. And I agree with you, desk workers aren't going to take a $15/hr job at the Flying J, which is why I believe they were likely to be hired either by competition or at least in occupations consistent with their skill set and aspirations, else we'd see them show up in unemployment stats. Check sector stats too - very low for finance https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU04032216# https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU04032216#
  - octobus2021 3y ago
    Fun fact. If I'm laid off from my corporate job and after weeks of searching start driving for Uber or delivering pizzas, I am considered employed in the U3 (the unemployment rate most often reported). I would be excluded in U5 rate (they are referred to as "marginally employed") which is about 1% higher. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm Another fun fact. If I work 2 jobs at 2 different employers I'm counted as 2 employed people. https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesfaq.htm https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesfaq.htm There's some much noise in "unemployment rate" that I would argue it's essentially useless for most purposes.
- konschubert 3y ago
  Median real wages are rising, too. And personally, I’d rather be a delivery driver than be unemployed. I think there is a correction in sectors that had been inflated by cheap money. The rest of the economy is doing pretty well.
  - ok123456 3y ago
    Median real wages going up is people moving to new jobs with inflation-adjusted salaries and rates.

by yyyfb 3y ago

ok123456 3y ago

The laid-off email job corporate worker isn't going to take a job for $15/hr at the Flying J unclogging toilets. You can't use the total national average unemployment rate, which has issues of its own, to say the economy is healthy. In the same way, the stock market indices aren't helpful either beyond catastrophic values.

HDThoreaun 3y ago
Right, unemployment staying low through the layoffs show that the laid off have been able to find acceptable jobs.
- cowboyscott 3y ago
  Not to nitpick, but I wonder if we can better define "acceptable." For a good layoff outcome, I'd expect the employee to find a new gig within a few months, that's +/- X% of their previous comp. Open question: has anyone seen this data?
yyyfb 3y ago
I don't claim that it can be used to say the economy is healthy. I take issue with OP's claim that large layoffs necessarily imply recession. Unless you know that the laid off workers aren't rehired by a competitor, you don't know if the layoff isn't just an outcome of competition. The national unemployment rate is a proxy for it. At least at the first order, if a large number of people are being laid off (and this isn't the first layoff in the sector, Wells Fargo has cut over 40k jobs from their peak) then so far they are being rehired. And I agree with you, desk workers aren't going to take a $15/hr job at the Flying J, which is why I believe they were likely to be hired either by competition or at least in occupations consistent with their skill set and aspirations, else we'd see them show up in unemployment stats. Check sector stats too - very low for finance https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU04032216# https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU04032216#
- octobus2021 3y ago
  Fun fact. If I'm laid off from my corporate job and after weeks of searching start driving for Uber or delivering pizzas, I am considered employed in the U3 (the unemployment rate most often reported). I would be excluded in U5 rate (they are referred to as "marginally employed") which is about 1% higher. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm Another fun fact. If I work 2 jobs at 2 different employers I'm counted as 2 employed people. https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesfaq.htm https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesfaq.htm There's some much noise in "unemployment rate" that I would argue it's essentially useless for most purposes.
konschubert 3y ago
Median real wages are rising, too. And personally, I’d rather be a delivery driver than be unemployed. I think there is a correction in sectors that had been inflated by cheap money. The rest of the economy is doing pretty well.
- ok123456 3y ago
  Median real wages going up is people moving to new jobs with inflation-adjusted salaries and rates.