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Title should be: " My AI Timelines haven't sped up, but now I think there's a 10% chance of AI dominance in 5 years" His AI timelines haven't sped up, only cla
by bethekind 3y ago
Title should be: " My AI Timelines haven't sped up, but now I think there's a 10% chance of AI dominance in 5 years"
His AI timelines haven't sped up, only clarified
- dbish 3y agoIt’s also barely clarified and has a ton of false precision problems, which I’d expect a researcher who works in the field not to have. Why 10% vs 20% or 15%, no real reason, just vibes, but it gets clicks.
- ChatGTP 3y agoHe can "feel the AGI".
- gumballindie 3y agoIt's right there talking to birds sent to spy on us.
- whynotminot 3y agoAt some level, isn’t any prediction about the future that involves too many variables somewhat always going to come down to vibes when trying to create a percentage confidence level? Is there a way to actually mathematically quantify this better? When people make predictions with percentages like this, I understand what they’re trying to communicate, even if the math isn’t precise. There’s a reason all his percentages are in clean multiples of 5.
- dbish 3y agoThere’s no reason to use numbers then. Use words and don’t hide behind sounding precise and mathematical
- whynotminot 3y agoMaybe for you. I actually do think something meaningful is communicated when someone says “I’m about 60% confident in this” versus saying “I’m fairly confident in this.” I don’t take it as him trying to put on a veneer of precision on what he’s saying. In fact it feels kinda obtuse to assume that’s what he’s doing.