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My AI Timelines Have Sped Up (Again)
- bethekind 3y agoTitle should be: " My AI Timelines haven't sped up, but now I think there's a 10% chance of AI dominance in 5 years" His AI timelines haven't sped up, only clarified
- dbish 3y agoIt’s also barely clarified and has a ton of false precision problems, which I’d expect a researcher who works in the field not to have. Why 10% vs 20% or 15%, no real reason, just vibes, but it gets clicks.
- ChatGTP 3y agoHe can "feel the AGI".
- gumballindie 3y agoIt's right there talking to birds sent to spy on us.
- whynotminot 3y agoAt some level, isn’t any prediction about the future that involves too many variables somewhat always going to come down to vibes when trying to create a percentage confidence level? Is there a way to actually mathematically quantify this better? When people make predictions with percentages like this, I understand what they’re trying to communicate, even if the math isn’t precise. There’s a reason all his percentages are in clean multiples of 5.
- dbish 3y agoThere’s no reason to use numbers then. Use words and don’t hide behind sounding precise and mathematical
- whynotminot 3y agoMaybe for you. I actually do think something meaningful is communicated when someone says “I’m about 60% confident in this” versus saying “I’m fairly confident in this.” I don’t take it as him trying to put on a veneer of precision on what he’s saying. In fact it feels kinda obtuse to assume that’s what he’s doing.
- behnamoh 3y agoFor fck's sake, please stop using this font. I know Apple started the trend but even they went back to sane alternatives. The narrow lines of this font are a torture to the eyes.
- elicash 3y agoI think this is just plain Helvetica, with weight at 300 rather than 400. Apple used to use Helvetica, and even an ultra thin version of it, but I wouldn't say they started the trend of using Helvetica.
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- vallode 3y agoI'm no AI expert, I don't have a lot of domain knowledge but what irks me about reading through this entire blog post is the idea that we are hinging on a definition of AGI that apparently accounts for 95% (!) of "economically valuable work" while basically not talking _at all_ about the trades. No mention of construction, manual labour, mechanics, welders, painters, nothing! Is the author trying to say that all that work falls into the 5% left over after you replace the stock brokers, programmers, artists, etc.? I understand no offence is meant, but this feels extremely naive. At best the work programmers do is in the minority of "economical valuable" work that we strongly rely on for our world economies to keep chugging along. Quick and dirty searches show that some 12% of employed people are in healthcare in the USA, 9% in leisure and hospitality, and 2% in education. 23% of people in the USA are employed in economically valuable work that is very personal, and very difficult for technology to fully replace. Sorry if I'm rambling, I think I just did not enjoy the complete lack of mention of blue-collar workers here. I don't think I'm yet in the camp betting on AGI coming out of the woodworks in the next few decades.
- idopmstuff 3y agoI totally agree with this - it always seems like sort of a weird omission when people talk about AGI doing 95% of work without any discussion of robotics. It seems very obvious that you need bipedal robots (or a lot of different types of robots) to hit that number. Do these AGI predictions assume that we'll have those by the time they hit AGI? Or is the word "knowledge" supposed to be implied before the work "work"? Either way, it's clearly inaccurate to say that AI on its own can do all productive work without physical embodiment.
- jsharf 3y agoIf we have intelligent AI that can automate programming, then making really good robots will not be a problem. While not trivial, actuators and power systems are not the reason why we don’t have robots that can do all manual labor for us. Software is the reason, and the same kind of software that’s learning to code (machine learning) can also be adapted to washing dishes, folding clothing, doing craft labor or previously human manufacturing jobs. Accelerating programming and information jobs also means accelerating the creation of robots that can do these trade jobs
- tomrod 3y agoI'm glad an AI researcher is posting their personal thoughts. As a fellow researcher and developer in the AI space, I conceptualize AGI as a self-domain-learning entity that is able to manage itself and understand how to affect/intervene its actions and effectual consequences (humans don't reach this on a general level until early teens to mid twenties, if ever). Walking is a solid example of this at a specific level. Singleton objective functions and patterns across probabilities of states are insufficient -- there needs to be ongoing interpretation and architecture extrapolation. In short -- current AI approaches are great at interpolation and still perform poorly at most extrapolation exercises that a human can take on.
- msoad 3y ago“Work” to us, in the tech bubble is sitting at a desk and doing some typing and clicking and sometimes decision making. The world out there is much more different. Work for many people is physical or very human (like a teacher or psychologist). Yes it’s easy to guess the job the involves mostly moving information around would be automated but that’s not all jobs by any means.
- dsr_ 3y agoIt is not quite 70 years since this proposal was written: http://www-formal.stanford.edu/jmc/history/dartmouth/dartmouth.html http://www-formal.stanford.edu/jmc/history/dartmouth/dartmou...
- feverzsj 3y agoMy AI timelines says next AI winter will come in 10 years, when people find it's a vaporware ... again.
- cedws 3y agoI saw an ad on the London Underground recently from a brewery that included "AI." It's starting to feel a lot like the dotcom/crypto bubble.
- teddyh 3y ago— When the market is on everyone’s mind, it’s time to sell. Joseph P. Kennedy, 1929 (paraphrased)
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- echelon 3y agoDisney and Pixar animation are about to get 10,000x - 100,000x cheaper and accessible to nearly anyone. When applied to the correct domains, AI is incredible.
- ChatGTP 3y agoWhat good does that do though ? It’ll wipe out entire careers so you can have what ? Cheap cartons ? Not disagreeing, just curious what makes you think this is so incredible ? Did you not have enough to watch before ?
- echelon 3y agoI want to make. Due to opportunity cost, capital cost, personnel cost - I could never be in that seat. This will empower fan fiction authors, web comic authors, indie creators, et al. to all reach new heights that they couldn't before.
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- siliconc0w 3y agoI'm an "overhang" bear, while incremental progress will be made - it'll come at too high of a cost. The larger, slower, more expensive models have limited applications(mostly fine-tuning the economical ones) so there will be ultimately less investment. Unless there is a new unlock, we'll be left with mediocre 3.5 models for most real-time apps and excitement will fade.
- gmerc 3y agoChatGPT is one giant training data acquisition project. Including pro. it’s painfully obvious when you see that any useful usecase eventually moves to the API (GPT 4 web/app flat out refuses to code more than a function or two at a time now; it had no issues with multiple files before). Everyone is providing the greatest training set you can now find (since all other venues for training data will gradually disappear behind walls and fees)
- m3kw9 3y agoHe should take into account in 3 months the time line will accelerate 20% and compound it and do a discount to present and give a more accurate answer. Let me do his job for him: 90% AGI will happen by 2030.
- croes 3y agoIs really a sped up? The target of 95% is still 2070, the 50% is still 2045, means the progress between 2035 and 2045 is now less than before. So the timeline has sped up and slowed down at the same time
- woopwoop 3y agoImagine you learn about some new conjecture in mathematics, and you try to predict when it will be resolved. Your prediction says that there is a 50% chance that the conjecture is resolved in the next 25 years, and a 90% chance it is resolved in the next 50 years. So, conditional on the conjecture not being resolved in the next 25 years, there is an 80% chance the conjecture is resolved in the subsequent 25 years. Wouldn't that be a little strange?
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- laichzeit0 3y ago“Today is the worst AI will ever be.” I’m gonna steal this one. I can’t say the same about web development, for example, or the US political landscape, or climate change, or mental health, etc.
- Jensson 3y agoAI doesn't just make progress, during an AI winter the AI gets worse for a while. Like deep blue was the best in the world, then they scrapped that project and it took a long while until anyone made a better chess engine. The same can easily happen for LLMs etc, if it turns out they are too expensive to run without VC money we will see them quickly regress once the next winter hits.
- czbond 3y agoYes.... what the military needs most is an auto-complete tool that was trained on Reddit material. (GPT-4)
- lostmsu 3y agoMine was 50/50 at 2035 after GPT-2, and with GPT-4 it is more like 90/10 with 50/50 being sometime in 2028 (that's for pure intellectual work).