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This doesn't seem to me to explain why the layoffs are happening now. AFAIK Google has never done a true layoff until last January in the entire history of the

This doesn't seem to me to explain why the layoffs are happening now. AFAIK Google has never done a true layoff until last January in the entire history of the company. Now it seems to be already routine. As someone who grew up in the 80s-90s, my historical sense of layoffs is that they were a response to economic hard times, whether industry-wide or company-specific. Companies laid off when profits fell or disappeared, which then drove a need to search for ways to cut costs. But the major tech companies are all seeing continuously growing revenues and profits within the context of very healthy general economic numbers, yet they are all laying people off.

theturtletalks 3y ago
The simple answer would be AI. That’s been the major change in the past year. I find it odd that everyone thinks Uber’s end game is automated cars, but no one seems to be talking about how tech companies end game is automated coders. LLMs are not even close, but what’s to say internally, they don’t have something that works. Or they have enough data to show they need fewer workers since they can leverage AI now.
- janalsncm 3y ago
  It’s a fair hypothesis but is it true? Are companies actually replacing engineers with ChatGPT? I haven’t heard anything about this.
  - jppittma 3y ago
    No, they're replacing compiler engineers with data scientists.
  - bjorglo 3y ago
    [dead]
- bennyelv 3y ago
  A counterpoint would be: if you kept the same number of engineers and increased their productivity with AI, rather than keeping output the same and reducing the number of engineers, wouldn't you be producing more value overall?
  - theturtletalks 3y ago
    Maybe the rate of diminishing returns as they realized too many cooks in the kitchen just slows down everyone.
- 3vidence 3y ago
  I work at a FAANG, I can't speak for all companies divisions but I can pretty comfortably say that I have seen next to no evidence that AI tooling has become so productive that we "need" less engineers. Actually it's somehow kind of the inverse, any AI related code has been subpar which has been putting a lot of stress on the core systems in terms of reviews and performance. From my personal perspective, things overall seemed more productive pre ChatGPT for FAANG level companies.
  - Ancalagon 3y ago
    OK, thank you for saying this. Whats interesting is I think there might be a disconnect between AI capabilities and tech executives. I'm guessing executives believe AI will catch up to be good enough to multiply engineers productivity say 120% within the next few years - hence the 20% layoffs everywhere. Maybe this will be the case. But for me on the ground its producing a lot more work. I now have to code review everything starting at a very high level working my way down and there's just so much MORE code now.
  - gitgud 3y ago
    > Actually it's somehow kind of the inverse, any AI related code has been subpar which has been putting a lot of stress on the core systems in terms of reviews and performance. My experience is that AI tooling just means engineers can do more, which means product managers want more… resulting in more work with the same engineering team…
- mooreds 3y ago
  > The simple answer would be AI. That’s been the major change in the past year. What about short term interest rates (in the USA) going from close to 0 to 5 percent over the past 2 years? https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFEDTARU https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFEDTARU Even if you have no debt, your customers might. And your stock returns are being compared to a risk free rate that has increased rapidly.
  - seuraughty 3y ago
    This is really it right here. Recession fears and large layoffs correlated directly with the raising of rates, as they always do.
    - mooreds 3y ago
      It's the hammer the fed knows how to use to fight inflation. Hopefully this time it won't tip the entire economy into recession, but I feel for all the folks who are being laid off.
- nine_k 3y ago
  We already had a revolution of automating coders, when Fortran first appeared. And a revolution of automating accountants, when a spreadsheet first appeared. If anything, these revolutions increased the demand for programmers and specialists in finance. A person wielding a right automation tool is producing much more revenue, while demanding nearly the same salary; it makes sense to hire more of such people, as long as there is a market for the product or service your company provides. The layoffs are a signal of this not happening. The AI is not helping enough to increase production and revenue per worker. Companies are out of new and efficacious business ideas. The companies don't know where to apply the intellectual / productive capability they have, so they are cutting it down, to save on its (substantial) upkeep.

theturtletalks 3y ago

The simple answer would be AI. That’s been the major change in the past year. I find it odd that everyone thinks Uber’s end game is automated cars, but no one seems to be talking about how tech companies end game is automated coders. LLMs are not even close, but what’s to say internally, they don’t have something that works. Or they have enough data to show they need fewer workers since they can leverage AI now.

janalsncm 3y ago
It’s a fair hypothesis but is it true? Are companies actually replacing engineers with ChatGPT? I haven’t heard anything about this.
- jppittma 3y ago
  No, they're replacing compiler engineers with data scientists.
- bjorglo 3y ago
  [dead]
bennyelv 3y ago
A counterpoint would be: if you kept the same number of engineers and increased their productivity with AI, rather than keeping output the same and reducing the number of engineers, wouldn't you be producing more value overall?
- theturtletalks 3y ago
  Maybe the rate of diminishing returns as they realized too many cooks in the kitchen just slows down everyone.
3vidence 3y ago
I work at a FAANG, I can't speak for all companies divisions but I can pretty comfortably say that I have seen next to no evidence that AI tooling has become so productive that we "need" less engineers. Actually it's somehow kind of the inverse, any AI related code has been subpar which has been putting a lot of stress on the core systems in terms of reviews and performance. From my personal perspective, things overall seemed more productive pre ChatGPT for FAANG level companies.
- Ancalagon 3y ago
  OK, thank you for saying this. Whats interesting is I think there might be a disconnect between AI capabilities and tech executives. I'm guessing executives believe AI will catch up to be good enough to multiply engineers productivity say 120% within the next few years - hence the 20% layoffs everywhere. Maybe this will be the case. But for me on the ground its producing a lot more work. I now have to code review everything starting at a very high level working my way down and there's just so much MORE code now.
- gitgud 3y ago
  > Actually it's somehow kind of the inverse, any AI related code has been subpar which has been putting a lot of stress on the core systems in terms of reviews and performance. My experience is that AI tooling just means engineers can do more, which means product managers want more… resulting in more work with the same engineering team…
mooreds 3y ago
> The simple answer would be AI. That’s been the major change in the past year. What about short term interest rates (in the USA) going from close to 0 to 5 percent over the past 2 years? https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFEDTARU https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFEDTARU Even if you have no debt, your customers might. And your stock returns are being compared to a risk free rate that has increased rapidly.
- seuraughty 3y ago
  This is really it right here. Recession fears and large layoffs correlated directly with the raising of rates, as they always do.
  - mooreds 3y ago
    It's the hammer the fed knows how to use to fight inflation. Hopefully this time it won't tip the entire economy into recession, but I feel for all the folks who are being laid off.
nine_k 3y ago
We already had a revolution of automating coders, when Fortran first appeared. And a revolution of automating accountants, when a spreadsheet first appeared. If anything, these revolutions increased the demand for programmers and specialists in finance. A person wielding a right automation tool is producing much more revenue, while demanding nearly the same salary; it makes sense to hire more of such people, as long as there is a market for the product or service your company provides. The layoffs are a signal of this not happening. The AI is not helping enough to increase production and revenue per worker. Companies are out of new and efficacious business ideas. The companies don't know where to apply the intellectual / productive capability they have, so they are cutting it down, to save on its (substantial) upkeep.