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> These accidents have a staggering 80% injury or death rate This is not the number that really matters in this context. Falling out of a 8 story window has a

> These accidents have a staggering 80% injury or death rate This is not the number that really matters in this context. Falling out of a 8 story window has an incredibly high injury/death rate. Yet those we often assume ARE the result of foul-play. What we're really comparing here is the probability of a party either lying, or contributing (causing) the motor cycle accident. The lethality rates aren't super interesting in this case. The main difference between this and falling out of windows, is that window-falls are much more rare then motor cycle accidents.

kube-system 3y ago
> Falling out of a 8 story window has an incredibly high injury/death rate. Yet those we often assume ARE the result of foul-play. Who is 'we'? Falls out of buildings are overwhelmingly due to accidents by tradespeople or suicide. Most homicides by being pushed from a height occur in remote areas, not from buildings. Most windows on high buildings are limited in how far they open during normal operation for safety reasons. And most older buildings that lack these features have smaller windows with higher sills. Statistics aren't tracked to this level by most crime reports because it is so overwhelmingly rare for someone to be killed this way. While homicidal defenestration makes for a good fictional story line, I don't think it is useful for murderers.
- declaredapple 3y ago
  I should have specified - important/at-risk people who suddenly fall from a window, especially after they did something the country they were in doesn't like. > Statistics aren't tracked to this level by most crime reports because it is so overwhelmingly rare for someone to be killed this way. The real issue here is we aren't comparing the statistics of the "average joe". For random-person we can predict the reason for their fall was unlikely to be state-level foul play - in fact near zero chance of it. The likely hood of state-level foul play is substantially higher for spies, rich oligarchs with unpopular opinions, journalists, etc. How much higher I have no idea. --- Anyway my point was the lethality of the cause of death is really not what anyone is interested in. When spies, rich oligarchs with unpopular opinions, journalists, etc die shortly after they did something particularly provoking I don't think people care about the lethality of the incident as much as the cause.
  - kube-system 3y ago
    Yes, when people work in sensitive positions with the potential to make enemies, they have a higher risk of death from those causes. However, it's also easy to fall into the fallacious trap of defining people solely by their profession. People who have sensitive jobs and also do other risky activities in their spare time incur those risks in addition to the risks they have due to their profession. In fact, some successful people with enemies engage in more risky activities because they can afford to do so. Rich people dying in general aviation accidents is a pretty frequent pattern, for example.
- nneonneo 3y ago
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suspicious_deaths_of_Russian_businesspeople_(2022%E2%80%932023) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suspicious_deaths_of_Russian_b... Plenty of weirdly coincidental falls from windows: > Ravil Maganov, September 1 2022, reportedly hospitalised for heart problems and depression, then "fell out of a window" > Grigory Kochenov, December 7 2022, reportedly fell to his death from his balcony while officials from the Investigative Committee executed a search warrant for his apartment > Dmitriy Zelenov, December 9 2022, reportedly felt ill and fell over a railing and hit his head, later died in hospital without regaining consciousness > Pavel Antov, December 24 2022, fell out of window from Hotel Sai International > Marina Yankina, February 16 2023, found dead after falling from a window on the 16th-floor of a high-rise building. > Artyom Bartenev, June 8 2023, found dead after falling 12 stories from his apartment window. > Kristina Baikova, June 23 2023, fell off her apartment at the 11th floor; circumstances of the incident have not yet been clarified.
  - kube-system 3y ago
    And that entire list fits inside of the rounding error of the number of people who die due to suicide and accident each year. 1.7 million Americans have attempted suicide.
    - genman 3y ago
      This list is not complete and we are talking about deaths, not attempted suicides and we are talking about deaths in closed circle, not in overall population, so it is a "statistical oddity".

kube-system 3y ago

> Falling out of a 8 story window has an incredibly high injury/death rate. Yet those we often assume ARE the result of foul-play. Who is 'we'? Falls out of buildings are overwhelmingly due to accidents by tradespeople or suicide. Most homicides by being pushed from a height occur in remote areas, not from buildings. Most windows on high buildings are limited in how far they open during normal operation for safety reasons. And most older buildings that lack these features have smaller windows with higher sills. Statistics aren't tracked to this level by most crime reports because it is so overwhelmingly rare for someone to be killed this way. While homicidal defenestration makes for a good fictional story line, I don't think it is useful for murderers.

declaredapple 3y ago
I should have specified - important/at-risk people who suddenly fall from a window, especially after they did something the country they were in doesn't like. > Statistics aren't tracked to this level by most crime reports because it is so overwhelmingly rare for someone to be killed this way. The real issue here is we aren't comparing the statistics of the "average joe". For random-person we can predict the reason for their fall was unlikely to be state-level foul play - in fact near zero chance of it. The likely hood of state-level foul play is substantially higher for spies, rich oligarchs with unpopular opinions, journalists, etc. How much higher I have no idea. --- Anyway my point was the lethality of the cause of death is really not what anyone is interested in. When spies, rich oligarchs with unpopular opinions, journalists, etc die shortly after they did something particularly provoking I don't think people care about the lethality of the incident as much as the cause.
- kube-system 3y ago
  Yes, when people work in sensitive positions with the potential to make enemies, they have a higher risk of death from those causes. However, it's also easy to fall into the fallacious trap of defining people solely by their profession. People who have sensitive jobs and also do other risky activities in their spare time incur those risks in addition to the risks they have due to their profession. In fact, some successful people with enemies engage in more risky activities because they can afford to do so. Rich people dying in general aviation accidents is a pretty frequent pattern, for example.
nneonneo 3y ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suspicious_deaths_of_Russian_businesspeople_(2022%E2%80%932023) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suspicious_deaths_of_Russian_b... Plenty of weirdly coincidental falls from windows: > Ravil Maganov, September 1 2022, reportedly hospitalised for heart problems and depression, then "fell out of a window" > Grigory Kochenov, December 7 2022, reportedly fell to his death from his balcony while officials from the Investigative Committee executed a search warrant for his apartment > Dmitriy Zelenov, December 9 2022, reportedly felt ill and fell over a railing and hit his head, later died in hospital without regaining consciousness > Pavel Antov, December 24 2022, fell out of window from Hotel Sai International > Marina Yankina, February 16 2023, found dead after falling from a window on the 16th-floor of a high-rise building. > Artyom Bartenev, June 8 2023, found dead after falling 12 stories from his apartment window. > Kristina Baikova, June 23 2023, fell off her apartment at the 11th floor; circumstances of the incident have not yet been clarified.
- kube-system 3y ago
  And that entire list fits inside of the rounding error of the number of people who die due to suicide and accident each year. 1.7 million Americans have attempted suicide.
  - genman 3y ago
    This list is not complete and we are talking about deaths, not attempted suicides and we are talking about deaths in closed circle, not in overall population, so it is a "statistical oddity".