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> Van Sabben passed away in the United Arab Emirates two weeks after the Stuxnet attack as a result of a motorcycle accident. Well, that’s not suspicious at al
by rdtsc 3y ago
> Van Sabben passed away in the United Arab Emirates two weeks after the Stuxnet attack as a result of a motorcycle accident.
Well, that’s not suspicious at all. Any of the parties involved could conceivably benefit from his accident.
- iwontberude 3y agoI agree to the first point that it isn't suspicious given how dangerous motorcycle accidents are. These accidents have a staggering 80% injury or death rate.
- lwhi 3y agoYep, the perfect way to dispatch him without raising too much suspicion.
- iwontberude 3y agoBut it's occams razor that says its more likely to be in a wreck because he commutes on a motorcycle.
- mlyle 3y agoI don't know whether commuting on a motorcycle or working for foreign intelligence to sabotage a hostile state is more dangerous. Either one can cause what looks like a typical accident.
- noqc 3y agoNeither Occam's nor Hanlon's razor are to be used in strategic pursuits.
- mardifoufs 3y agoYou're applying Occam's razor for the most involved and complicated cyber attack in history, that was organized by some of the most powerful intelligence agencies in the world? Talk about stretching an already over stretched "rule of thumb"
- lwhi 3y agoAnother great angle to the perfect crime.
- xwolfi 3y agoBut I mean, even my dad died of a motorcycle accident... maybe this dude just did too ?
- croes 3y agoIsn't the question how dangerous motorcycles are and not how dangerous motorcycle accidents? Plane crashes have a pretty high death rate too, but plane crashs are rare. What is the probability of having a motorcycle accident in Saudi Arabia.
- rgmerk 3y agoIt was the United Arab Emirates. The odds of dying in a traffic accident in that country are considerably higher than in the United States, and much higher than in other developed countries (sorry USA, you suck at road safety, but not as much as the UAE does)[1]. While I don't have country-specific statistics to hand, the odds of dying riding a motorcycle are much, much higher than in a car. One estimate is that you are around 27 times more likely to die per distance driven/ridden [2]. Even so, in an absolute sense, the odds of dying on a typical motorcycle commute are low. My guess is that your odds of meeting foul play shortly after screwing with the Iranian nuclear program are likely higher than dying in a random traffic accident. But coincidences do occur. [1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_traffic-related_death_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_traffic-r... [2] https://www.autoinsurance.org/motorcycle-vs-car-accidents/ https://www.autoinsurance.org/motorcycle-vs-car-accidents/
- dingnuts 3y agoCitation 1 does not support the claim that the USA "sucks at road safety" -- only a handful of the countries listed actually have a statistic for deaths per km traveled, which is the metric that matters (since the USA is much less dense than many of the countries it's being compared to, its citizens drive farther). The US is right in the middle -- doing better than the Czech Republic and South Korea -- on the metric that matters on the page you linked, but really, more data is needed because the metric you want to look at is mostly missing from the table.
- actionfromafar 3y agoBut the US designed the infra to make you go many more kilometers by car to even buy some groceries.
- rdtsc 3y agoThey are especially dangerous in autocratic countries, when also co-operating with powerful intelligence agencies, trying to plant spyware in an arch-enemy's nuclear infrastructure. I hear even helmets and spine protectors have a hard time with that situation :-) But to be serious, I meant it mostly that it's certainly one case that would warrant extra investigations. Even if it was a random accident, someone like the Iranians could have claimed that their super advanced spy hunting team got him.
- declaredapple 3y ago> These accidents have a staggering 80% injury or death rate This is not the number that really matters in this context. Falling out of a 8 story window has an incredibly high injury/death rate. Yet those we often assume ARE the result of foul-play. What we're really comparing here is the probability of a party either lying, or contributing (causing) the motor cycle accident. The lethality rates aren't super interesting in this case. The main difference between this and falling out of windows, is that window-falls are much more rare then motor cycle accidents.
- kube-system 3y ago> Falling out of a 8 story window has an incredibly high injury/death rate. Yet those we often assume ARE the result of foul-play. Who is 'we'? Falls out of buildings are overwhelmingly due to accidents by tradespeople or suicide. Most homicides by being pushed from a height occur in remote areas, not from buildings. Most windows on high buildings are limited in how far they open during normal operation for safety reasons. And most older buildings that lack these features have smaller windows with higher sills. Statistics aren't tracked to this level by most crime reports because it is so overwhelmingly rare for someone to be killed this way. While homicidal defenestration makes for a good fictional story line, I don't think it is useful for murderers.
- declaredapple 3y agoI should have specified - important/at-risk people who suddenly fall from a window, especially after they did something the country they were in doesn't like. > Statistics aren't tracked to this level by most crime reports because it is so overwhelmingly rare for someone to be killed this way. The real issue here is we aren't comparing the statistics of the "average joe". For random-person we can predict the reason for their fall was unlikely to be state-level foul play - in fact near zero chance of it. The likely hood of state-level foul play is substantially higher for spies, rich oligarchs with unpopular opinions, journalists, etc. How much higher I have no idea. --- Anyway my point was the lethality of the cause of death is really not what anyone is interested in. When spies, rich oligarchs with unpopular opinions, journalists, etc die shortly after they did something particularly provoking I don't think people care about the lethality of the incident as much as the cause.
- two_in_one 3y agoIt doesn't matter how dangerous. He had years before and after to die this way. The fact that it happened right after has very low probability to be by chance. Which means it very likely wasn't.
- bostonsre 3y agoThat's pretty screwed up to kill an asset like that. I doubt Iran could have unraveled the plot so quickly and I'm not sure how they could benefit from killing him.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- AlecSchueler 3y agoThe US/Israel benefits because he's no longer around to talk about it.
- rustcleaner 3y agoThis one sees!
- michaelt 3y agoOr it wasn't Van Sabben, and the US/Israel just picked some random dead guy to pin the blame on. These stories are all "according to intelligence sources", they can really anonymously brief out anything that serves their needs.
- runjake 3y agoAfter a quick public records search, it looks like he was a real person -- or a real identity with a tangible history. It appears he was formerly married to an American woman in his first marriage.
- pedalpete 3y agoThe comment isn't suggesting that he didn't exist, but rather that after he died in the motorcycle accident, it was possible to say that he was the actor and protect the people who were actually involved. All this requires is to understand who died shortly after Stuxnet who could have feasibly been involved.
- 3y ago
- lwhi 3y agoMy thoughts exactly.
- mensetmanusman 3y agoAlso, his actual existence could be a fabrication itself as part of a counter op.
- lebean 3y agoDon't stop there! What if the whole thing was made up? Who's to say otherwise?! /s
- trhway 3y agoThe guy probably existed. It is his involvement which may have been fabricated to hide the real story. His death, the time and the manner, exactly provides indirect credibility to such fabrication.
- geocrasher 3y agoIndeed, his involvement could have been fabricated after his death, and he'd be unable to defend himself.
- mensetmanusman 3y agoI'm thinking this is the most likely case, all of this stuff is great for generating confusion.
- irjustin 3y agoWouldn't there be a concern for his wider family?
- myth_drannon 3y agoIt's a big assumption that he died. A pretty standard way to disappear is to die in some 3rd world country where you can easily bribe the officials.
- logicchains 3y agoThe UAE is one of the richest countries in the world, not a good place to go for cheap bribes.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- jorblumesea 3y agoAny proof he died? It's not hard for western countries to manufacture identities. Pretty common practice to given sources a form of witness protection.
- swarnie 3y agoA CIA/Mossad pension plan? Do you think he got the villa next to Epstein or Kobe?
- lp4vn 3y agoExactly what I thought. It's much easier for a country to retire an engineer with a fat paycheck than to create an incredible amount of distrust killing him. An assassination only makes sense if somehow he threatened to tell everything to the iranian goverment.
- EA-3167 3y agoThe article is mistaken, I don't know if it was a typo or misunderstanding. He actually died two *years* after this event, and given how insane driving in the UAE is that doesn't seem hard to believe. Two years is a long time to leave a loose end dangling that you intend to disappear after all. https://english.aawsat.com/features/4778291-stuxnet-mystery-dutch-engineer-disrupted-iranian-uranium-enrichment https://english.aawsat.com/features/4778291-stuxnet-mystery-...
- HomeDeLaPot 3y agoYes, one of the X (formerly Twitter) screenshots confirms he died in 2009 while the operation took place in 2007.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- throwup238 3y agoThe operation to install the pump was in 2007 but the damage seems to have started in 2009 when Iran started to replace the centrifuges. Stuxnet was publicized in 2010 but Iran might have found out about it before that time.
- at-fates-hands 3y ago>> Well, that’s not suspicious at all. He was a well known engineer that had worked in Dubai for 12 years in the transport industry and had an Iranian wife. He was well known as an engineer at the forefront of the rapid development of major projects in the Gulf region. A regional paper even published his obituary in 2009: https://www.thenationalnews.com/uae/engineer-who-helped-build-the-maqta-bridge-1.553285 https://www.thenationalnews.com/uae/engineer-who-helped-buil... Excerpt: Erik van Sabben, a Dubai-based engineer whose expertise in the heavy lifting and transport industry placed him at the forefront of the rapid development in the Gulf over the past decade, has died. A keen motorcycle rider, he was killed in an accident near Dhaid on Jan 16, just two weeks short of his 37th birthday. Born in Vlissingen, The Netherlands, Mr van Sabben had lived in the Gulf on and off for 12 years. While an undergraduate, he worked as a trainee for Mammoet Gulf in Dubai, a specialist heavy lifting company, which he joined after graduating. He spent the next decade in Dubai, and briefly, Abu Dhabi.
- Magi604 3y agoI'm getting black ops vibes from this.
- vitiral 3y agoDid you consider it could have been faked?
- aaron695 3y ago[dead]
- jonathankoren 3y ago>Well, that’s not suspicious at all. Any of the parties involved could conceivably benefit from his accident. I swear, the latest generation of conspiracy theorists are really pathetic.
- WhackyIdeas 3y agoSo I am going to float another conspiracy just for fun sakes… USA and Israel think Iran have got a bit close to figuring out Stuxnet culprit, they put out a story and use a poor guy who can’t defend himself against the accusation of being involved, one who happened to have had a tragic accident with a motorbike and who so just happened to do some work in Iran. And boom, the death is suspicious so there must be truth to it all… That is probably more believable (to me at least).
- CrzyLngPwd 3y agoNot surprising. Remember, "To be an enemy of the US is dangerous, but to be a friend is fatal", as Van Sabben may have discovered.
- jedmeyers 3y agoAre we sure that he actually died in that accident and not chilling somewhere in Florida under a different name? Cause it can be a good cover story do disappear your agent that successfully fulfilled his mission.
- WarOnPrivacy 3y ago> Are we sure that he's ... not chilling somewhere in Florida under a different name? I don't see how punishing him further accomplishes anything. source:Floridian
- Uptrenda 3y agoWhenever reading any CIA related files 'and then such and such happily passed away in an accident.' Y-yes, i-i believe it... (((anxious)))
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