5 ms·
Just so we have some numbers: $0.41 per watt utility-scale solar panel cost in 2020 ($0.17-$0.30 by 2030): https://www.energy.gov/eere/solar/articles/2030-sola
by zackmorris 3y ago
Just so we have some numbers:
$0.41 per watt utility-scale solar panel cost in 2020 ($0.17-$0.30 by 2030): https://www.energy.gov/eere/solar/articles/2030-solar-cost-targets https://www.energy.gov/eere/solar/articles/2030-solar-cost-t...
Cost projections (note the 2019 upswing where market forces and installation costs exceeded solar panel cost): https://www.solar.com/learn/solar-panel-cost/ https://www.solar.com/learn/solar-panel-cost/
$480/kWh utility-scale battery cost (falling by 32% to $326/kwH by 2030): https://www.energy-storage.news/li-ion-bess-costs-could-fall-47-by-2030-nrel-says-in-long-term-forecast-update/ https://www.energy-storage.news/li-ion-bess-costs-could-fall...
Solar energy will likely be stored in low-cost sodium ion residential and high-temperature sodium sulphur utility-scale batteries. This is probably a solved problem in the lab but will take 5-10 years to roll out at scale.
To put this in perspective, Bonneville Power in the northwest supplies some of the cheapest electricity in the US due to its installed hydroelectric base. But it is no longer able to compete with renewables, as solar and wind prices have fallen below its $35/MWh wholesale price:
https://www.bpa.gov/energy-and-services/rate-and-tariff-proceedings/power-rates https://www.bpa.gov/energy-and-services/rate-and-tariff-proc...
http://www.bluefish.org/notobase.htm http://www.bluefish.org/notobase.htm
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Levelized_cost_of_electricity https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Levelized_cost_of_electricity
Now the cost-benefit of dams is being examined due to their environmental impact on fish runs (like salmon) and the starvation of wildlife like killer whales near estuaries.
Meaning that since solar is scalable, it has made nuclear the most expensive form of electricity today in terms of levelized cost. That doesn't mean that newer thorium and pebble bed reactors aren't worth exploring for high-power use cases, but that there's no way to build, fuel and decommission a nuclear reactor more cheaply than operating an existing dam which is already more expensive than solar.
The smart investment today is in energy storage and AC/DC transformers. Photovoltaics are second to that because they are a saturated market, but there could be opportunities in thinner and disposable panels, especially for electric vehicles.
- hgomersall 3y agoI'm suspicious of those numbers. I personally can build a home scale battery storage system for around 280£/kWh. As in, I can go and buy the parts to do that and put it together. I can't believe they can't already do it cheaper at grid scale. That said, it might well be it's as easy to buy at small scale as at grid scale currently.
- epistasis 3y agoWe are in a weird space right now where individuals can get super cheap batteries and inverters, but what's getting installed for grid scale is somewhat more expensive and meant to be cycled fully daily 5000-8000 times. Residential is much less likely to see discharges as deep and frequent as the large grid installs.